Title: 50 بعدی: برنامه ریزی، معماری و معماری منظر | انجمن دانیل برنهام در مورد ایده های بزرگ

سخنرانی افتتاحیه انجمن دانیل برنهام درباره ایده‌های بزرگ را تماشا کنید که توسط انجمن برنامه‌ریزی آمریکا حمایت می‌شود و در مرکز فرهنگی شیکاگو در شیکاگو، ایلینوی، در ۱۲ ژوئیه ۲۰۱۲ برگزار شد. جفری پاتر، FAIA، رئیس موسسه معماران آمریکا؛ و میچل سیلور، AICP، رئیس انجمن برنامه ریزی آمریکا. درباره سریال بیشتر بدانید و سخنرانی های دیگر را تماشا کنید: https://www.planning.org/burnham/

قسمتي از متن فيلم: Uh huh good evening i’d like to welcome all of you to this inaugural lecture of the daniel burnham forum on big ideas i’m paul farmer faicp apa apa’s chief executive apa is sponsoring the daniel burnham forum on big ideas throughout the country over about the next year

To examine the big ideas the challenges the opportunities that are facing america’s communities and will face america’s communities in the coming decades addressing these issues now requires new heights of creativity attention judgment analysis and collaboration across the design professions as well as with many others it’s important that we have these

Conversations now uh to help lead america’s communities toward a more just and sustainable future to facilitate these conversations the forum will include a series of lectures some involving leaders of professions such as we have tonight others involving leading academics we’re going to involve students as well

As those that we think have much to offer to our professions so please watch for that schedule as i said over about the next 12 to 15 months and tonight we’re honored to have three innovative design professionals each of whom leads their own professions and one of the questions that we’re

Asking through the daniel burnham forum series is how the professions will have to change if we are better to serve our communities moving forward so what will be the role of each of the professions in guiding america’s communities and what will the changes mean then for each of our professions

We’ll hear first from each of the three presidents of the organizations and then we will have some time for uh questions and answers uh each of the speakers will be given about 25 minutes also we have timed this lecture to coincide with the summer retreat of

Apa’s board of directors as well as the commissioners who govern govern our professional institute aicp so i would like to ask each of the members of the board and the commission to please stand and be recognized thank you again for your leadership for america’s communities as well as our members we’ll begin the

Evening with susan m hatchell f-a-s-l-a president of the american society of landscape architects susan has more than 20 years of professional experience in 1974 she founded her own firm susan hatcher landscape architecture in raleigh north carolina her firm specializes in the planning and design of public facilities and works with state and local

Governments and and universities she holds a bachelor’s degree in ornamental horticulture from the university of maryland college park and a master’s degree in landscape architecture from north carolina state university susan was inducted as an asla fellow in 2001. susan will be followed by jeffrey potter jeffrey faia is president of the

American institute of architects he’s also vice president of potter a design firm with offices in dallas and longview texas that he started nearly 30 years ago his focus is on k-12 educational facility planning and implementation he holds a master’s degree in architecture from texas a m university

And is a fellow of aia our final speaker then will be mitchell silver president of the american planning association and a member of aicp as well mitchell is the chief planning and development officer and the planning director for the city of raleigh north carolina currently america’s second fastest growing city

He has more than 25 years of experience working in both the private and public sectors he has a bachelor’s degree in architecture from the pratt institute and a master of urban planning from hunter college he’s a certified planner and a licensed professional planner in the state of new jersey

So without further delay i’d like to ask susan hatchell to begin the first burnham lecture thank you good evening i think chicago is one of my favorite places so i can’t tell you what an honor it is to not only be involved in this really interesting idea

Big idea but to be in such an interesting city with a great history i’m going to talk about landscape architecture and the future of american communities and i’m going to review some challenges some emerging issues and then talk a bit about the big idea uh those of you who are friends of mine

Know that i post a facebook theme song almost daily not quite and so this morning before flying out of raleigh i decided the song would be chicago by crosby stills nash and young i saw them at the deepak in durham the other day but i really like the the sentiment of

From the song of course the song is about chicago and not such a happy event but i like the words we can change the world rearrange the world it’s dying to get better i think those are really meaningful words for us to think about so i posted that song this morning

Landscape architects architects and planners we shape and then we change the world in very real and very physical way so we have a responsibility to think big and we have a responsibility to get it right the mission of the asla is to lead educate and to participate in the careful stewardship

Wise planning and artful design of our cultural and natural environments so as we look forward to the next 50 years 2012 to 2062. i was speaking with mitch earlier today and i said well that’s a daunting task a person my age when asked to look forward 50 years

I kind of it makes me a little uneasy to think about that because i know the one prediction that will be true is that i will no longer be with us but nonetheless it’s been a really interesting experience the last couple weeks as i’ve formulated my thoughts and ideas

To really think about that you know what is the legacy of our profession what is the legacy of me as a landscape architect what is the legacy of my firm and you know you just don’t usually sit down and do that that often so it’s been a great rewarding uh professional

Journey to be thinking about this to me landscape architects weave together engineering and architecture using the foundation and the principles and guidelines provided by planners i see us all working together in this and i think that landscape architects are ready to tackle the challenges that are facing our communities in the future

We have the training and expertise to work with natural systems and our profession was founded on the principles of social and health reform so let me talk a little bit about some challenges we see coming and there are many uh the biggest challenge i think will continue to be the economy

For the next 50 years it will be yet another rollercoaster ride it won’t change because if you look back you’ll see and this is a little bit longer than the 50s you can see the great depression there but it goes up it goes down and it yanks us with it

It draws us up and it drags us down so i think you know we’re we’re coming out of a really difficult time and it’s become the new normal but if you’ve if you’ll read um the great reset by um richard florida you’ll see um that these these periods of economic

Dismalness really create opportunities in other ways and we really have a lot of innovation and a lot of new thinking and new uh opportunity that comes from that and and in the past the long depression and the great depression made really incredible technological social and um economic changes so who

Knows what’s going to come out of this one but i do believe there are new opportunities that come from these challenges and i believe that you learn the most from times of adversity and because it makes you try new things think a different way and just get out of your comfort zone

This is one of my favorite quotes and it just so happens again this is chicago’s own rum emmanuel says a crisis is a terrible thing to waste you really need to think about how to turn a crisis into a learning experience and a growing experience and and turning it into the next thing

But the problem i see with the economy is that it really kind of drives everything and i’m going to the other challenges we’re going to talk about are demographic change social change public health urbanization land use and transportation and quite frankly the economy drives and affects

All of those where people want to live and work where people can make money um you know what’s going on with public health how people work and play it really is all tied back to the economy um so you know it’s going to be an overriding theme i think we’re seeing

A demographic change one of the challenges that that i think is pretty pretty serious population growth 49 growth is expected and predicted between 20 000 and 2050. uh an increase to 420 million people that is huge that is huge not only are we growing in population we’re getting older

By 20 30 one-fifth of the u.s population will be 65 or older that really changes everything in the built environment as well it changes our tax base it changes a lot of things we’re seeing this rise the millennial generation they’re smart they’re civic minded they’re technologically savvy we’re seeing a bigger increase in

Diversity all the time with this population growth right now minorities are a third of the population but by 2040 the minorities will become the majority so you know we’re changing very rapidly we’re seeing a huge change with intergenerational living mom uh dad not only do they have to take care of

Grandma and she might live there they’ve got college graduates and 30 year olds moving back in and they might have younger children too we’re seeing huge change in in how people are interacting as families so i think this is going to make a lot of change for housing transportation recreation

An interesting project i want to share with you is the intergenerational garden in new york city landscape architects collaborated on this and designed it designed a 31 000 square foot intergenerational garden for seniors and it was affordable housing and their next door neighbor was an all girls catholic high school

So really a good example of bringing different people together another challenge is social change some of this is good and some of it’s a challenge i think we’re seeing more and more of a desire for people to live sustainably more and more people want to eat organically there’s a desire for livable walkable

Communities post 911 we now have this real concern in all of our cities about security we have the 99 i don’t know that they’re camping out as much as they used to but they have made it clear that they are not happy and they want to be vocal about it we

Have an older more diverse population as i already mentioned and we’re seeing much more public involvement and more awareness but we also have new communication tools and new technologies to keep the public informed so i think we’re getting level of transparency that’s beneficial but the public is is more vocal they’re

More involved they’re more interested they want to shape their community and they want to protect their environment i say hallelujah another challenge a project that goes with that public involvement is a it’s called www.neighborhood neighborland.com and this is really this is what i was talking about you don’t have to go

To a public meeting as much as you can use your computer you can be at home to share thoughts and ideas and talk as a community it helps identify goal and think about things and then you can come together with spray chalk and stickers and various things to really

Find that public space to actually come together to really talk about it and i think this has been a very powerful yet simple tool to get people to connect and start thinking about their community in a different way so you know it’s a really good example of changing in pub

Public involvement public health this is a huge challenge it is a crisis it is a real crisis there’s much more interested in healthy living designed for active living and that is because we are so unhealthy and our environment has been designed to allow that and to you know perpetuate that

Right now 66 percent of the population is overweight in just two or three more years 75 percent of the population will be overweight at a cost of 150 billion dollars a year that’s crazy that needs to change we see children with diabetes the the health crisis is incredible and it’s directly related

To our built environment in many many circumstances we can overcome this the aging population people are getting older but they want to stay actively involved i don’t know about how many friends you know who are right in my age range hip replacements knee replacements all these good things because they refuse to

To give up their sports but recreation generates 646 billion dollars in direct spending either on gear or on trips and 6.1 million jobs the oil and gas industry creates 2.1 million jobs education 3.5 construction 5.5 it’s time to stop thinking about recreation about as though it’s playing because it’s actually healthy active living

And it’s also a huge powerful economic engine that we need to take seriously example of this is the active design guidelines new york city department of design and construction put this together to look at the manual how do you create healthier buildings streets urban spaces uh it’s based on

Real academic research best practices in the field and it was developed with a whole partnership you know aia chapter leading landscape architects mental health and health professionals really a great way to look at how we can work to improve public health through the built environment excuse me another real challenge is

Urbanization and land use majority of the population is moving to the cities we have a housing glut we have vacancy in the suburbs people want smaller housing units they want more transit oriented more transit options they want livable communities active living and there is an aging crumbling infrastructure that goes with this urbanization

How do we build upon that we also need to think about fixing the suburbs infill development adaptive reuse green infrastructure stormwater transportation things we need to be doing in the suburbs to make them better and to make them denser i think we see denser development transit oriented development urban open

Space and urban agriculture as real emerging markets and here’s an example again of a project to talk with you about that the mcallen public library in texas i don’t know if you’ve been there jeff this was a public infill where a abandoned walmart was turned into a public library it’s a

Pretty huge public library it’s the size of two and a half football fields but this new library has include increased user registration 23 in the first month and it’s created a whole new opportunity for programs and it’s been able to engage teams in a way that maybe the walmart didn’t

Transportation is a real challenge and it’s it’s definitely um something we need to be looking at closer congestion continues to just get worse and worse as more and more people are moving into these urban areas the cost of transportation is a huge challenge as well this it’s the second largest cost in an

American home about 19 percent of our incomes generally go to some form of transportation and you know really importantly it becomes a barrier to home ownership for lower income people they can’t even afford a home because they’re putting their money into transportation rising fuel costs do increase the interest in

Alternatives which is a good thing the other problem with transportation is access and equity issues the location of the quality of transit stops the hours of operation the distance from housing and really it comes down to the elderly the lower income and the disabled people really holding the short end of the

Stick on this i think we’re seeing alternative energy public transit alternative transportation transit development and they’re big issues in in pretty much all cities all across the united country the example i want to talk about here is back in durham the american tobacco trail and this is 23 miles of an existing transportation

Infrastructure it was the railroad that took uh the tobacco to durham of course durham no longer makes cigarettes downtown but there was infrastructure and it was a great idea it goes through urban suburban and rural areas so it really is of safe and um easy access you can get to recreation schools

Businesses shopping downtown durham it’s a great idea and in the us over nineteen thousand miles of abandoned rail lines have been turned into uh walking trails and bike trails and this is a huge economic impact to communities to have these facilities so let’s talk a minute about emerging issues

The first emerging issue sustainability in the environment one of the most important things we see going on is talking about energy there’s a lot of concern about dependence on foreign oil there’s a lot of concern about the safety and the environmental hazards with offshore drilling and fracking

In north carolina these are both big issues but we also see things happening with wind power and solar power geothermal and bio fuels thinking about how we can do things differently and i think design professionals need to step up and be very involved in this

And need to continue to look at how to save energy and incorporate alternative energy into our our uh into our communities the example project here i just love this one marina south gardens in singapore these 18 super trees serve as towering vertical gardens they collect rain water they generate solar power

And then they act as venting ducts to get the hot air out of the conservatories what a great idea they’re functional they’re innovative they’re environmentally friendly and guess what they’re all so beautiful climate change and disaster response this is really an enormously hot topic uh we it is a very hot hot topic

You guys i mean i’m in north carolina we had record-breaking heat and i know you have had this same problem the whole country is having a huge problem with urban heat gain increases in severe weather and sea level change but of course north carolina doesn’t believe in sea level

Change either i have to i fear but um but green infrastructure increasing shade uh designing to accommodate flood water these are becoming very very important parts of our communities in our urban fabric and the the population the conti the coastal areas of the united states um is the contiguous knight united

States is 17 percent coast yet one over a half of the population lives in that 17 percent of land that is at risk this is going to create housing changes uh we have damaging floods there’s loss of property neighborhoods even cities we need to look at uh some of our

Neighbors in the netherlands and other places um where where you can look at how to how to address this and what can happen with you know these are amphibious houses actually um i was is it jersey city i think 35 percent is below sea level i mean there’s some shocking if you’ve ever

Seen the pictures of galveston all across the country there are really major cities that are right in harm’s way from flooding and if you add a severe storm to that it’s catastrophic speaking of catastrophic we had the oil spill in the gulf coast that caused people to start rebuilding wetlands

We had hurricane katrina again on the gulf coast coast people are starting to look at building green infrastructure increasing the resiliency of the area the tsunami in japan was devastating landscape architects been collaborating with other design professionals designing new sea walls looking at memorials and monuments the whole new emerging trend for

Disaster tourism it’s there and there’s still a huge debris cleanup uh there’s a big mass to clean up an example project here is the river to bayou um the bayou uh bienvenue and the lower ninth ward it’s pretty well known that what happened in the lower ninth ward

Was a failure of levees but it was directly related to uh pre-existing environmental degradation there used to be thirty thousand acres of cypress forest that absorbed that flood and protected the city from storm surge it’s not there anymore this is a great project it restores a resilient natural environment to allow flood

Storage while still giving sustainable human development in the same areas really a great way to look at this another emerging issue is these mega regions the growth of mega regions i know you’ve heard about this uh america 2050 group states that between 20 2000 and 2050 more than 70 percent

Of the population growth and 80 percent of economic growth are going to take place in these 10 metropolitan areas called mega regions you can see them there and we’re in one of them now so this creates an opportunity but it also creates some challenges as that population continues to grow in

Those areas we get more congestion more problems in an aging infrastructure but it also creates a push and a need for regional planning high-speed rail truck only toll roads and looking at global integration zones that really help us be more competitive in in this global economy we let now live in

So what’s the big idea i think for landscape architects the new big idea is the sustainable sites initiative the asla partnered with the lady bird johnson wildflower center and the u.s botanic garden to create a new system for rating site projects and credentialing prevent professionals and you can see by the

List here global climate regulation local climate regulation air and water cleansing water supply and regulation erosion sediment control hazard mitigation from flooding drought wildflower pollination habitat functions waste decomposition treatment human health and well-being benefits food and renewable non-food products and cultural benefits this goes a lot farther

Than that section in leeds it’s called sustainable sites there are 59 159 pilot projects right now across the u.s and some other places to test and see how this system will work make sure that it’s uh that it’s it has viability is it is it rigorous enough is it too rigorous is

It practical is it user friendly what types of projects will it work for various things it was modeled after lead and the benchmarks include 15 prerequisites 52 credits and the goal is to make use of sustainable planning design and maintenance and the first three projects were

You can see there on the right were certified and this past january and the whole system is going to be launched next year so what’s the big the big idea here like i said i think really this is going to be really new and exciting for landscape architects and others but

۵۰ years from now it’s going to be old news it’s going to be yesterday’s news and this will become standard design practice that really changes and shapes our communities and our environment in a positive way some other things the asla has been working to do is to create educate

Advocate and collaborate creating public awareness and understanding there’s a i think the public has grown up with us and they’re getting there but you know continually making sure the public understands what the issues are educating about the environment the role of landscape architecture advocating to elected officials about important policy changes and where

They’re making mistakes and where they’re getting it right where they can help create jobs for landscape architects protect the environment and be do the right thing for communities and also collaborating with other design professionals environmental stewardship groups such as being part of this uh panel tonight in 2011 the asla website attracted 645

۰۰۰ unique visitors 1.6 million unique visits and 5 million page views the dirt blog had over a half a million page views if you’ve not read the blog it’s really a fun interesting thing to do the asla is 16 000 members so it makes me very excited to hear those

Numbers because it means our reach is broader than just talking to ourselves and preaching to the choir we are getting out there very broadly with this message and we are being relied on as a go-to source about environmental and sustainable issues our website has nine completed projects overviews animations with

Eighty five uh views and there’s a wide range of coverage on these things again you can see um design for active living infrastructure for all revitalizing communities the edible city and you know really just trying to make sure people understand that this stuff matters and it changes the world in a positive way

I think there are many many great challenges facing our communities and they’re going to require innovation creativity and big thinking so i do applaud the apa for this initiative i think it’s really a meaningful thing we need to be talking about this but change comes to our communities incrementally

Maybe that’s a good thing because you don’t make a big mistake all at once but it also means we have to remain vigilant and we have to stay on this at all times we can’t rest i think our organizations do a good job of collaborating i think we need to collaborate

More and we need to be more vocal and we need to push harder it will help protect our communities we’re all in this together and our collective voice is let will be louder and it will resonate long longer if we take the time to sing together

So in closing i’ll go back to our song for the day uh chicago the last line of that song which will be my last line for the evening until you start asking questions i guess um the last line of that song is won’t you please come to

Chicago no one else can take your place thank you i’m tempted to uh just say what she said i mentioned to mention a minute ago that might be of value is to make a matrix of the three speakers and the major points they make and then see

Which ones overlap and that’s the story going forward i think for collaboration at least again i’m jeff potter president of the american institute of architects uh very honored to be here this evening the title of my talk is mid 21st century modern speaking on behalf of my aia colleagues

Around the country and especially those who’ve graciously given up their time to join me this evening even driving in from outside the city thanks for joining us i’m delighted to participate in such an auspiciously named forum daniel burnham is one of the great heroes of my profession

Most likely he hero to everyone in this room his genius was founded on an understanding that inspired place making is not the task of anyone disciplined but the skilled orchestration of landscape comprehensive planning and architecture and nowhere is this understanding more obvious than here in this city

It was his great plan for chicago the first such document for the controlled growth of an american city that set the future of the place toward greatness it’s a journey that continues under his influence even to this day with the inauguration of the daniel burnham forum on big ideas

We stand at the threshold of what i believe and sincerely hope is the beginning of a new level of collaboration never before and certainly not in my lifetime have the design professions been so challenged to help lead america’s communities of all sizes toward a more just and sustainable future

Never have these opportunities been greater to be agents of positive change either the task assigned to those speaking at this inaugural program was to focus on what we believe will be the major trends challenges and opportunities that will shape america’s communities in the next 50 years

And in preparation for my part of the program i went back in time not 50 but 70 years to the 1939 new york world’s fair and i sat down to explore an exhibit called the building of the world of tomorrow sponsored by the general motors corporation the world of tomorrow

Promoted what has been called one of the last great metanarratives of the machine age an unqualified belief that science and technology would lead us to economic prosperity and personal freedom purity and perfection that was the promise of tomorrow as represented by the fair’s iconic symbols the dazzling white trilon and perisphere

I was just a little surprised to see that gm and the organizers of the fair got a lot of it right they projected a message that was in many ways prescient the exhibition provided a comprehensive world view that predicted a sea change in the way americans would live move and build

But what they missed was the dark side of this brave new world on the horizon there were no clouds that forecast gridlock energy dependence or air pollution they didn’t foresee the impact of vast post-war urban renewal schemes that disrupted millions of lives or the decay of the inner city

As the white middle class moved out on the new ribbons of highways that advanced ever deeper into the countryside and i ask you today consider five studied predictions that will shape our places and profoundly affect our work first the impact of the digital revolution on the design and management of our communities

Next something both the design and popular media have seized upon urbanization except in a more complex model today i’m going to label it reverse migration the third is climate change climate change on its face is hardly a new offering but its downstream effects may well be closely related to climate change but a

Subject worthy of very special focus is water and finally a disturbing trend in the great recession or as we’d say down south the recent unpleasantness has fleshed out into the open the monetization of the public realm let’s begin with our digital revolution if you’re expecting me to riff a little

Bit on computer-aided design that’s not my intention my aim is to take a larger view posing the following question will your next mayor be a computer the digital revolution has transformed our communities into vast reservoirs of data decisions on the allocation of resources what gets built where it’s built and how it’s connected

Will be driven by an unparalleled gathering and interpretation of data our communities are becoming ever more complex networks measuring the networks of measuring devices and systems a collective intelligence capable of sensation can new technologies revive sociability and civic engagement and help create networked publics organized around collective goals or issues

Will these innovations lead us away from top down or bottom up to a new more democratic form of peer-to-peer interaction are we seeing a real world upgrade tapping into humanity’s collective response to create places of beauty wonder excitement inclusion and diversity of life properly understood and used this flood

Of information can help us design our communities to be more productive safe sustainable and i think healthy used without a considered ethic an orwellian nightmare could easily be the outcome if we’re not part of the research and analysis we will cede control of the design of our communities to others most likely corporations

Whose values are driven by shareholder equity rather than the good of the community if we’re not part of the discussion that develops a backup in case of natural disaster or acts of terrorism we’ll be missing an opportunity to exercise the historic mission that we share to protect the public public safety

Health and welfare the second event that i mentioned is the much publicized phenomena of urbanization the global proportion of urban population and susan touched on some of these statistics earlier has risen steadily from 13 percent 1900 to 29 percent in 1950 to 49 percent in 2005. according to the 2005 revision

Of the un world urbanization prospects report that figure is likely to rise to 60 percent by 2030. by 2050 two out of every three people on the earth will be an urban dweller much of the discussion in our media has been focused on the movement of people into the traditional downtowns in our

Cities even cities like cleveland and detroit are showing signs of new life in the next few minutes i’d like to suggest that in this country at least movement has been somewhat more complex and that we who shape the environment need to look not only at the urban core

But also at the near and distant suburbs it’s understandable why the focus has fallen largely on a movement into the cities for one thing that’s where the media are but it’s a little bit more than that public health authorities like my friend dr richard jackson are part of a swelling chorus praising

Urban density they argue persuasively that since inhabitants of high-density urban environments drive less commute less and walk more cities in the design professions that shape them can in fact promote public health then there is the argument for sustainability just as an elephant is roughly speaking a larger more efficient version of a mouse

Working in the context of urban density offers the design professions an opportunity to enable the efficient delivery and use of all kinds of natural resources harvard economist edward glaser writes if you love nature move to the city related to the first two advantages of density is the economic argument

At a time when municipalities are facing and will likely continue to face increasing demands on their bottom line cities cannot afford to sprawl fueling much of the post-world war ii out-migration of the middle class from the city was deliberate government policy based on the primacy of the leave it to beaver nuclear family

Dad mom a couple of kids and a dog it also plugged into a burgeoning desire of the middle class america to achieve independence to live and manage one’s own territory to pursue desire the implications of this migration of the middle class out of the urban cores of our cities

Were vast for the economy the use of natural resources the welfare of our cities public health and even the relationship of the citizen to government as urban democrats morphed into suburban republicans taking their place in the now empty apartments and tenements were the rural poor and immigrants in search of inexpensive

Housing and jobs typically they required more city services but in the face of a shrinking tax base municipalities increasingly had fewer financial resources to foot the bill many previously prosperous cities particularly in the russ belton northeast entered into decline in search of cheaper housing and jobs the urban poor and children of the

Boomer generation are today trading places the poor are in search of cheaper housing and jobs while ironically the affluent and middle income children of those very boomers fully exposed to the world by media and influence are in search of their vision of independence an enhanced quality of life

A search that has led them to the cities in other words the much talked about urban migration actually flows in two directions into the urban core and the near-end suburbs as well as out to the middle and distant suburbs that were the center of explosive growth not so coincidentally

Where the housing bust has taken its greatest toll one consequence is already apparent as reported last april in archdaley for the first time in our nation’s history the suburbs have a higher percentage of the nation’s poor than the cities do and the suburbs have fewer services to offer

The solution and i’d say our opportunity is not to remake the suburbs into dense cities there will always be those who prefer the lifestyle the suburbs offer i’m from texas remember rather in the face of all the talk about the re-emergence of the city and our role in fostering healthy urban

Communities we in the design professions have this magnificent opportunity to reimagine what the suburbs could and should be as we think about the cities as well as the suburbs especially how they relate to and reinforce one another we need to keep in mind larger cross currents that are transforming our understanding of both

One such current is charted by the sociologist eric kleinenberg in a provocative new book going solo the extraordinary rise and surprising appeal of living alone kleinenberg observes that in this second decade of the 21st century more than 50 percent of american adults are single and 31 million live alone

If this trend continues as the author believes this will force radical changes in housing and social policy ozzie and harris move over for seinfeld and friends nor is the migration to the city restricted to sons and daughters of the boomers consider the empty nest households that are downsizing

Some years ago the new york times ran a story based on interviews with elderly americans who’d moved back to the city as one woman interviewed expl explained in the suburbs the only way to get around is in my car in the city i have alternative methods of transportation not the least of which

Is just walking around she felt isolated in the suburbs in the city the local grocery store would deliver food even if she couldn’t get out services for seniors were within an easy walking distance as was the hospital and her doctors as well as her church and cultural interests

She felt safer and part of a vibrant community whether she was walking down the street or watching the street from her window the greatest opportunities for integrating the growing number of elderly into the life of diverse communities may lie in college towns with their lively cultural amenities

And medical facilities as well as the older cities of the midwest with their substantial stock of underused commercial and residential properties in an article that appeared last month in the toledo blade analysts for clarion partners reasoned that instead of being shipped off to the sun belt the elderly increasingly want to be near

Their adult children who often welcome them to live nearby these are likely to be some of the challenges and opportunities we in the design professions will confront as we help our communities grapple with the powerful multi-directional forces associated with urbanization above all in shaping a more just and sustainable future for all americans

We will be in a position to help government business and the public square the circle of quality of life and affordability so far i’ve touched on matters technological and sociological the next phenomena is somewhat existential that is climate change no doubt future generations will determine the true effect of pumping

Millions of tons of carbon dioxide and methane into the atmosphere tonight i’ll limit myself to something we can all agree on there are more of us in harm’s way a fact that has major implications for how we shape our communities in the face of current regulations and practices that encourage development in fragile

And marginal real estate there are opportunities for us at all levels of government to develop an advocacy agenda that has as its goal reigning in market forces which expose people and property to catastrophic loss think for example the national flood insurance program nicknamed knuckle sam’s flood machine meant to protect the public interest

The legislation in fact gives developers the green light to build on sand literally passing legislation that curbs exploitations of indefensible land will be a rough slog especially in the current political and economic climate climate our pockets are less deep than those with vested interests to maintain the status quo limiting how

The land is used does raise the issue of absolute rights of property owners and will be challenged by the negative feelings some powerful constituencies have for any kind of planning preferring to leave design of our communities to market forces a more hopeful scenario is based on the

Tools we already have to protect lives and property one of the most obvious is that we have the ability to design resilience into our communities key facilities such as fire stations hospitals should and can be designed to survive the loss of essential services in these sort of natural disasters

We call this passive survivability the concept came out of a post-katrina reconstruction conference held in atlanta that led to a set of proposals with the title the new orleans principles one of these states that homes schools public buildings and neighborhoods at least should be designed and built to serve as

Livable refuges in the event of a crisis other post-katrina conferences pointed to the special contributions landscape architects can make in collaboration with architects and urban planners to work with nature rather than against it natural disasters are inevitable but the harm they do is not with more people in the path of increasingly

Common events we in the design professions will be called upon to play a greater role in mitigating harm before moving on to my fourth phenomena in the list of five please indulge me to entertain briefly the thought that global climate change is in fact real

I know this because two weeks ago in the dallas morning news exxon’s ceo was quoted as accepting this outright that this summer’s fires draw in triple digit temperatures and terrific storms are evidence that something is happening to the earth’s climate and that climate change is a reality

We know the building sector is the major u.s and global source for greenhouse gases a credible figure the figure that we at the american institute of architects often use is 40 percent it’s caused by buildings not vehicles but buildings by designing sustainability into the places we build and by advocating for

Legislation that mandate sustainability we not only cut down these emissions and conserve resources we enhance our nation’s security by lessening dependence on imported sources of energy in this effort you and i are now at the front lines if the past is prologue progress will most likely come from actions taken

Not by federal government but by our cities which have been taking the most significant steps to cut emissions i was at the mayor summit uh about six or eight months ago here just down the street and mayor michael nutter from philadelphia said you know these guys in washington

All they do is generate policy mayors build things you know he was right he said if i don’t fix a pothole i’m out so i you know i applaud the cities if any of you here represent that you’re you’re on the front lines let’s hope it doesn’t take 50 years to

Reach the goal of carbon neutrality if we reach it at all the last point lets me crack the door to a doomsday scenario being proposed by a number of experts they say the damage is already done that we’ve set into play forces that will have catastrophic results

If this is true there will be a massive displacement of people who live along our coast susan’s already had that slide up i noticed the texas triangle she had we call that dalantonio the the people who be dislocated where will they go how will they be fed since climate change is predicted to

Have a devastating effect on agriculture in this country and around the world if you believe such a scenario is plausible then ours will be a role in the future national policy second only to the military if this is in the cards we have no time to lose to develop a coordinated humane response

The next point access to potable water is closely related to the issues already raised by the needs of a growing population and climate change since the shock opec gave us in the 1970s much of the public discussion about the future of our country has been focused on energy

Let me suggest that from here on out water and not oil will increasingly dominate the conversation energy may be indispensable to comfort and radically although i doubt permanently alter commerce water however is the necessary precondition of life and this resource is being stretched by the needs of a growing population as

Well as climate change to address a growing need for finite and essential resources such as water various approaches will be attempted including diverting water from the great lakes generally 20 percent of the non-frozen fresh water in the world is right out here i think you’re looking at the new sun

Belt it’s right out here building a string of desalination plants on our coast and just simple water conservation each approach has issues for instance desalinization requires energy not only to separate the salt from the water to pump it but to pump it to the user it won’t be cheap perhaps not even feasible

No doubt i’m a little biased but as far as i can see the most viable proposals protect and preserve this most essential resource is to design environments that not only capture water but also to mitigate if not eliminate the effect of contamination by uncontrolled runoff whether the designed professions or

Government again most likely at the local level takes for takes the lead there will be an increasing mandate for low-impact development that will follow projects from the pre-design stage as sites are analyzed to the operation of structures that are built in the facilities that support them including parking lots

Research and knowledge will spark innovation and yield rewards the design teams doing this work will be multi-disciplinary and as such they will have the capacity to anticipate science and policy perspectives as necessary dimensions of an intelligent design response that achieves high performance high performance environments that exploit beauty and an instrument of

Resilience and adaptation i want to quickly introduce the final point of the presentation monetization of the public realm by reading excerpts from a story that appeared late last month in the business section of the new york times the headline reads a georgia town and i quote a georgia town takes the

People’s business private dateline sandy springs georgia if your image of a city hall involves a venerable building some classical pillars and lots of public employees the version offered by this atlanta suburb of 94 000 residents is a bit of a shocker the entire operation is housed in a generic one-story industrial park

Along with a restaurant and a gym applying for a business license speak to a woman with severn trent a multinational company based in coventry england want to build a new deck on your house chat with an employee of collaborative consulting based in burlington massachusetts need a word with people who oversee

Trash collection that would be the urs corporation based in san francisco unquote the interview with the city manager does not offer much information about the quality of the services provided that could be the bias of the reporter i don’t know instead the interview is resolutely fixed on the bottom line

Cost and how much is saved still how does approaching the responsibility of governance as if it were a business build community where does the community gather to deliberate matters of common concern a rented space in an industrial park that certainly reflects an attitude toward the role of government which is

Reduced to a matter of metrics and contracts the attitude to the judicial branch hardly seems better again i quote even the city’s court which is in session on this may afternoon is handled by a private company the jacobs engineering group out of pasadena california the company’s staff is in charge of all

Administrative work though the judge lawrence young is essentially a legal temp paid a flat rate of 100 per hour unquote it’s not my intent here tonight to debate whether or not the citizens of sandy springs are being well served what troubles me as an architect and as

A citizen is the apparent lack of commitment to a vision beyond the ink at the bottom of a contract there appears to be no appreciation or belief that there is a role for government as an instrument of the governed to invest in the future indeed government is somehow foreign and

Different from all of us this is corrosive it eats away at the very idea of democracy it reminds me of a line from oscar wilde who offered this definition of a cynic a man who knows the price of everything and the value of nothing more than the digital economy more than

The complex impact of reverse migration more even than climate change and the scarcity of water this mindset may pose the gravest threat this notion that as long as we have our own we have no obligation to our neighbors we have no obligation to posterity unless the people we seek to serve have

A sense of a shared destiny a deep commitment to work together toward the goal of a more just and sustainable future we in the design professions can do nothing to advance the quality of life of all citizens i begin these commitment comments with a reference to new york’s world’s fair of 1939

And what might be seen as the blind faith there’s there’s a ban for you blind faith one of my favorites the affairs organizers placed in the wonders of science and technology what we the inheritors of that faith have seen are the limitations of technological fixes to the great issues shaping life

On this planet whether the proposed solution is a ring of desalinization plants umbrellas in the sky or an additional macadam and interchanges to relieve gridlock folks i’m no luddite technology has a place but it must be part of the kind of big picture design integrative collaborative design thinking that distinguished daniel burnham’s vision

For chicago is there an appetite for such thinking is there the understanding that ours is a shared destiny i believe it is i’ve been encouraged by what’s happening amongst our new generation there’s an emerging grassroots understanding among young people that there are no quick fixes in the face of

The enormity of the challenges facing us and the planet we live on not simply for the next 50 years but for the rest of this century there is also a growing appreciation that what affects the least of affect least of us affects all of us this represents a unique opportunity for

Those of us in the design professions an opportunity to work with the emerging generation of leaders to shape a more hopeful narrative as together we enjoy engage the future before a close i want to thank the american planning association for inaugurating this series this is vision and leadership at its finest

Let my final words be those of john ruskin therefore when we build let us think that we build forever let it not be for present delight nor for present use alone let it be such work as our descendants will thank us for and let us think as we lay stone on stone

The time is to come when those stones will be held sacred because our hands had touched them and that men will say as they look upon the labor and wrought substance of them see our fathers did this for us thank you thank you jeffrey for ending on a happy

Note i was about to pull out my handkerchief and start crying uh thank you all for being here this evening this is a really a work that we wanted to have a conversation with our members we talked about lead inspire innovate and now we wanted to put those words into action

And challenge our members to really start to generate some big ideas uh for the next 50 years as we look back at the past century you look at the challenge really it’s a tale of two centuries the 20th century our challenge at that time was urbanization and challenge defined by this century is

Going to be suburbanization and i like the quote from bruce cass he said if you love cities this is your century and we’re seeing that unfolding really before our very eyes now we’re not alone a lot of people are having conversations about 2050 in the next 50 years susan had mentioned america 2050.

Uli is talking about it apa just released a book about the megapolitan america and we’re thinking more and more about the next 50 years because people say why do you think so far ahead and when i talk to some of the residents when we have public meetings

All of us understand that one day we have to retire at least i hope we have to retire depending on what you’re investing in in your 401k but once you establish a time and a date that you’re going to retire and let’s say you’re 45 you want to retire at 65

It requires that you do something each and every month each and every day to make sure you’re prepared for that date when you retire it’s the same thing as when you look at 50 years ahead what do we need to do today excuse me today tomorrow next month and next year to

Make sure we’re prepared for the future and so we in the american planning association want to join our partners to start to have that conversation now as susan said i’m going to try to make some predictions i’m not too worried about the next 50 or 60 years because i’m not going to be

Around here to know if it’s true and some of you won’t either so i’ll take some liberty to take a guess and what i think may happen now i typically like to talk about some of these emerging trends i will not discuss all of them i’ll limit my number you

Will see that there will be some similarities among my colleagues but what i do like to point out about this list is many of these emerging trends have never happened before these are new and so it’s very difficult for us to search for examples about how do we solve these problems

As i often say you can’t google to find these answers these are brand new and these big challenges require big ideas do we need little plans is that helpful sure is helpful but right now we’re also demanding big ideas i come from a region in north carolina that was struggling and losing their

Young population it was tobacco farms and textile mills and one person actually a group of people back in the 1950s said we want to have a research park people thought he lost his mind and he decided to move in that direction and now the research triangle park is a global

Powerhouse and has transformed our region to make it as paul said one of the fastest growing regions in america and always on everyone’s top list of one of the best places to live and work and play as a result of a big idea so i’ll be talking about the next 50

Years and as you’ll see there’s some similarities in our presentation i’ll be discussing regionalism demographics public health water i’ll touch briefly on climate change and then talk a little bit about zoning and land management i think it’s very important that we learn how to frame the conversation often let the public and elected

Officials off the hook because we’re so focused on the problem now that we don’t talk about the problems that we have to solve and sometimes that takes courage and so we let the public and the elected officials off the hook because if you don’t discuss the problems that you want to solve

Then there are really no problems to solve and that’s hard for a lot of us because we tend to want to look at what’s immediate but we have to start having conversation and it will vary whether in a small town or a suburb or a city

Or a region the issues may vary but you have to start having those conversations and i remind planets in our profession this is part of our code of ethics that we have a special concern for long-term consequences of present actions and we have to remind both the public

And elected officials that there are also consequences for taking no action and i encourage you more and more that we have to talk about well we understand the consequences if we do something but doing nothing is an option and doing nothing has consequences and we also want to

Encourage a conversation that when the public says no when elected official says no one even our design profession will say no we’re saying yes to something else and we have to have a conversation about what that is now when we look at the urbanization of america you can see how rapidly it’s changing

Back in the 19th century when we’re a mere five million people and six percent was urbanized you moved to the 21st century where now we’re 80 percent urbanized and if you move us to the 22nd century and i remind people a person born today can actually live and see the 22nd century

Our population will be 570 million people and it’s likely that our urbanized population will be close to 90 percent today our population is 314 million and we have 131 million housing units and if you look at how we’re going to grow by 20 30 350 million by 2050 400 million

And by 20 62 50 years from now 438 million and oh by the way the world population will reach 9 billion by 2050 so if we look at the next 50 years the united states is going to grow by 124 million people that’s what’s expected to be here in the next

۵۰ years and believe it or not we’re going to have to find or absorb 50 million new housing units to handle that population if you think about it that’s roughly about a million housing units a year they’ll have to be built or absorbed and you don’t just build

Housing you need commercial and parks and roads and everything else that supports it so the america you know today will be transformed by adding over 100 million people to our population and the world over that same time period will add will have more than 2.3 billion people

And if you look in 2010 and are both urbanized areas and urban clusters generally these are the areas that you’re going to see continue to grow the rural areas because of aging and other factors you’ll start to see decline which is right now roughly about 60 million

You’ll continue to see that decline uh for reasons that people prefer to live in regional areas but just like susan was talking about is very likely that our economy is going to be shaped by these megapolitan regions uh she showed the one by american 2050 this is the book

By arthur nelson and robert lang and this book goes in depth about these mega regions and how it’s going to shape our economy and growth and migration over the next 50 years and to show you the example and susan gave you another one about all of them collectively

I like to share this locally in my state of north carolina just to show how important these metropolitan areas mean to our economy just in north carolina of the 15 metros that we have it constitutes today 70 of our population 75 of our jobs and 83

Of our state’s gdp the power in our state is in metropolitan areas in most states the general assembly and the legislatures are controlled by rural elected officials and so we have to work together if we want to move toward in the future so what i share with people is that we

Are really in this together we’re going to rise as a region and fall as a region within that region you have to support your neighboring cities and towns it is not going to be good for this region if you have a weak chicago it hurts the entire region so you have a

Vested interest to make sure that the urban suburban and rural areas work together and i try to share with people the office model industrial park which many economic developers still believe is an answer that’s really fading away uh in the 21st century and it’s more based on strong economies targeted clusters

Ecosystems and central cities and a movement toward metropolitan and metropolitan areas i believe it’s been a planner’s dream for regionalism starting back in rpa in the 1920s that we’re going to move in that direction by default why do i say that property tax with the

Aging of america is going to be a big issue very often when people age in certain states if you income qualify you don’t have to pay any additional taxes and as you see those counties those cities getting more and more older residents and if you have a weak economy there’s

No way of getting some of that revenue to support basic services and so what and even you know in terms of just a deferred maintenance which many cities are choosing to do sooner or later that day of reckoning is going to come and i believe that we’ll have to develop

New models for revenue or service delivery or the options going to be to cut services or consolidate and one of the things that i predict is that over time you’re going to see more and more local governments first consolidating the services and then have that tough conversation do we actually have to consolidate

As a local government we just heard again i think is san bernardino that’s declaring bankruptcy and i think you’re going to hear more and more cities not cities by say cities towns villages declaring bankruptcy or doing some outrageous things like scranton where they’re just changing the way they pay people for minimum wage

Because they cannot figure out how to sustain themselves without raising property taxes or finding new revenue so over the next 50 years planners need to innovate new ways to sustain their economies and we have to play a greater role in the economy of place something we used to do

But unfortunately we got out of now something that we certainly share with my colleagues is a resiliency of post-war construction this is something that concerns me a great deal if you own a pre-war uh home that house was built saw as a rock you kick it you

Probably would hurt your foot you may need to even break your foot it was quality custom built yet unfortunately most of our suburbs in our city 80 percent of our growth is basically during that period of 1980s and on 85 percent of our city is a post-war city

It’s mass-produced in fear of material and my concern is what what happens when that housing stock reaches the age of 50. will it sustain itself as that older housing stock and when you look at the next generation of building material or even building codes just at the pan uh the piedmont atlantic

Mega region we are expecting 84 million billion square feet of new construction by 2030. this is a huge opportunity rather than having larger homes having smaller homes that are greener more resilient and can reduce greenhouse gases so this is a huge opportunity as we’re growing and my hope will see greener codes

Better code and better quality as we look at the next wave of development over the next 50 years now susan already mentioned this so i won’t spend too much time but certainly we’re going to have more older americans they’ll be living longer more single mothers fewer couples getting married

And by 2050 majority households will be single persons the implications of course is that they’re looking both seniors and younger generation are demanding different lifestyle housing and transportation choices they’re looking for smaller homes looking to rent and of course the s the prediction by arthur nelson that scares everyone is because it’s a

Mismatch between supply and demand they estimate there’ll be 25 million single-family homes on the market with nobody to buy them because a single person will not want to buy a large home 10 miles out of the city center so there’ll be a disconnect and so we’ll see over time with that demand for

Housing what will happen to that may be the sro of the future or what they’re calling now the golden girl suburbs where they’ll have a lot of elderly sharing a home susan also talked about and for that matter jeffrey about the changing demographics of america by 2042

There’ll be no majority race and by 2050 uh these are the numbers that i’ve estimated what america will look like now thank to uh i really think policy link someone i’ve been working with and i actually shared possibly share this presentation an annual conference that i wanted to share with you what is

Happening across the country so you can see graphically and geographically the evolution of this demographic change over the next this one goes up to 2040 from 1980 to 2040. so basically the darker the color is showing the intensity of the concentration of people of color and so this is 1980 this is 1990.

This is two thousand basically twenty ten is where we are today this is twenty twenty twenty thirty and then twenty forty we don’t have it at twenty fifty now this will be driven primarily by hispanic population we’ll also see an increase in asian population african american population almost flat

But there’ll be a rapid decline in the white population but this is the america that we’re moving toward if you want to see this graphically you could essentially see the reduction in the white population the last part down to 45 percent and a massive growth and increase in the

Hispanic i’m sorry the white population and massive increase in hispanic population well what this means also is that i think there’s going to be the rise of what i call the inclusive city by 2023 minorities will comprise more than half of all children in the u.s and this is

The first year there were more children of color born than white children in the united states by 2050 a nation’s population of children is expected to be 62 percent and a working age population is projected by 20 by 2050 to be 55 percent what i challenge planners and the design

Professions that we have to be at the forefront to help prepare for those inclusive cities and inclusive towns and villages and counties because of this change that is coming you are an inclusive city here in chicago when i share this information raleigh people got terrified didn’t even know our white population

Had already dropped down to 53 percent and they hadn’t even noticed so there is really nothing to fear we all get along it was fine i also like to talk about present and future generations in market demand because their values and needs and aspirations will really define their consumer preferences and

Neighborhoods and cities and communities also part of that market demand now what i wanted to talk about is not just the ones we know about but i believe in the next 50 years we’re going to experience another three generations which i’ll call a b and c generally if you look at the

Length of time of the generations they vary from anywhere from 23 years on the low end to 13 so i just estimated by picking these dates that we’ll see about three different generations the reason why i say that is because during this time frame you’re going to see market demand

Attitudes change which we can’t predict we don’t know what the next generation a b or c usually you you know somebody tries to get famous and right now there are a lot of people out there it’s the igen generation they’re trying to get famous picking the name so i figured let me go

Throw my hat in the ring and try to get famous too so i named three of them and i’ll explain the chart in a second the next is going to be the next generation because i couldn’t figure out a better title from 2013 to 2030 uh essentially 2042 is a year will

Become a minority majority 2062 uh is the year about 50 years from now and so you can see that just generation is really going to start being born next year and so uh this is before you start seeing some of that demographic change but they’ll be basically uh mature adult when that happens

Then we have this global generation they’re the ones that are born right before that 20 benchmark and this is where i believe we’ll have more global competitiveness it won’t just be usa we’ll recognize that brazil and china and other countries will be rising as economic powerhouses and then we move into this new

Generation which is this post racial generation when every child born now knows that we are now in a minority majority country and so you’re going to see these changes over time that in 50 years will experience about three new generations what that means is change is coming and

Each generation will be defined by key issues challenges and opportunities markets will change the manuals change plans need to evolve and practices need to evolve so please don’t get comfortable in what you do constantly look at those trends and be prepared to change now as mentioned about water

The us population has grown 52 percent in the last 30 years while the total total water water usage per person has tripled by the way that is raleigh’s reservoir in 2007 at the peak of our drought it became very serious am i right susan in our market

Where they had to make sure you did not take a bath they actually had people sniff you to make sure that you did not take a bath that day and they we had neighbors checking you along literally you were supposed to call the authorities they saw somebody watering their lawn

And so we’ll continue this is from noaa in terms of the drought outlook uh this is now a phenomenon that’s going to be with us and i agree with with jeffrey and with susan that water is going to be a big issue and look at some of the growth places

Where it’s happening at least 36 states are anticipating local regional or statewide water shortages by 2013 looking to the future more than one in three counties the united states could face higher extreme risk of water shortages due to climate change by the middle of the 21st century

And that same report said that seven in ten of the counties of the 3100 counties could face some risk or shortages of fresh water drinking water for farming or other uses by the middle of the 21st century and if you take a look at domestic water use in gallons per day

The darker the blue is the more usage it’s interesting that in nevada and places out west and even texas and new mexico and arizona you see a good level of water usage so this is something that we have to continually make a point in our planning to make sure that we

Understand both our growth patterns conservation and water is becoming a bigger and bigger issue over the next fifty years i won’t spend too much time on climate change or how to mitigate mitigation since my colleagues talked about it but my point is over the next fifty years all of us really need more

Courage and resolve to pursue big ideas to adapt and mitigate to climate change this is going to be an issue and i think we cannot be concerned with the politics because future generations are going to judge us by how we act today we have that window to do something i’m

Hoping it is not too late that we have to really step up and intervene and not be concerned about the naysayers that are saying this is a hoax we have some serious work to do and yes i am from north carolina if you did not know at least for the next four years

Sea level rise predictions is illegal now in north carolina you cannot make a prediction that the sea level will rise and i’m sure it’s going to work the sea will not rise in four years uh it was also touched on about the rate of obesity in the united states

I’m concerned that the cdc is going to have to come with a darker color or probably a tombstone they’ll start putting on each state just to drive home the point but i think we all know that the level of obesity continues to be an issue but this really is an opportunity for

All of our professions to start working together because place matters design a place matters same here the darker the intensity uh the worst level of obesity and so i often remind people that the public health professionals and planners work together for a very long time but somehow i think paul was saying

Earlier today about the last third of the century we kind of lost that connection but it’s time for us to come together and believe it or not the phrase in the beginning of almost every zoning ordinance says to protect the public health safety and welfare

And is my hope over the next 50 years that public health professionals planners and design professionals will play a greater role in making our communities healthier also over the next 50 years i believe that planning cannot just be an exercise of site planning subdivision zoning administration or just a regulatory function

As was said actually i was quite surprised that jeffrey made this point we are concerned about the privatization of government in general but also the privatization of planning we have no problems with consultants but as i think as jeff ellen we said we’re very concerned that government which is a municipal corporation

That there’s this attitude that certain parts of our profession or government in general will be privatized that is an emerging concern and i always believe for planners that if you want to show your value through long-range planning understand your trends analysis and manage uncertainty about the future

For the public and prepare for the future one of the things that i think we’re all very proud of is that the american planning association put out a document called sustaining places it’s really identifying the new role for the comprehensive plan and this is something i believe that

Will play a major role over the next fifty years because it’s based on comprehensive plans meeting eight principles and i believe that this is something over time that i believe is a legacy document that will really pave the way on how we plan uh going forward in the future

I personally have a lot of questions about zoning which was originally called districting which came from germany but we’ve now had almost a century of planning if you use 1916 as the first zoning ordinance in new york city but we had our euclidean zoning conventional zoning performance-based zoning form based smart codes

And now what i kind of call the homeowners association type you know zoning codes the question is what’s next and i believe as we become more dense as a country i’m not sure what’s going to happen for zoning at least the term may not be around the next 20 30 or 40 years

I also wanted to point out that america supports community planning that was something that just came out of a survey that apa put out but my question to you is community about a place is it about people or is it both i think far often planners focused on place

And i believe as we become more dense and the attraction that people have for cities it’s about all of the above and we have to spend more attention recognizing because the reaction was america supported community planning a lot of our critics said that’s impossible i don’t believe it

You know robin paul please check your poll it can’t be right but it was right across political affiliation race geography they supported community planning i do want to make sure i think the reason why is that as related to place planning originated based on the notion of scientific efficiency

Civic beauty and social equity when we look at the three ease of sustainability the environment the economy and equity planning is about people and planning is about place and that is why i believe as we grow over the next 50 years place making is going to play a greater role the

Experience of place it’s not just zoning people move the places because of the experience because of the memories because of the authenticity and the sense of place and as we grow place making is going to play more of a greater role as i begin to close

I’m going to talk about some things i believe are going to be innovative over the next 50 years and one is something that we call land management in raleigh we were very concerned about not just doing planning but how do we manage the 145 acres

Of our land and so we went on this project to determine using careful analysis how much capacity of land did we have and we found out that we had a limited resource to accommodate our growth and we decided to implement something called a land management plan we looked very carefully

At our sources of revenue something i think most planners do not do and we recognize that the planning department could influence maybe about 39 percent of property tax and sales tax and so we want to look very differently about how do we sustain ourselves knowing that these are our revenue sources

Between fees taxes and sales tax and we decided to look very differently about how to sustain our economy so that we could be good stewards of the taxpayers dollars and so we took an analysis of all the land value in our city believe it or not the high spike of the

Blue is our downtown the lower blue spikes is our midtown and now we’re beginning to look at the value of land so we don’t have to grow out and sprawl which most places relied on for their revenue we’re now looking to go vertical and be smarter about how

We use our land and now i don’t know if you can see this but we’re now doing a city-wide rezoning and we recognize by resorting that property we’re trying to calculate how much value will that create and how much taxes will it create for our city so that we

Don’t have to increase taxes and in fact north carolina is one of the lowest tax places uh in our state and we are working with the council to come up with a policy that is looking at the return on investment versus just widening a roadway to address capacity so we’re smarter

About what we do and i believe in the next 50 years this is going to be done more and more across the country america told us a couple of things and this supports what i was just saying the top priorities for planners today job creation safety neighborhoods education and water quality

What concerns me is a lot of what we talked about today is not on this list i believe we need to have a short-term plan and a long-term plan we need to make sure we address these concerns but we also have a conversation about our residents about the future because i believe

They chose these because it’s immediate it’s now and what they responded to so as i close over the next 50 years i do believe there’ll be more of a consolidation of local governments i believe there’ll be a rise of metropolitan and metropolitan america i believe that more people will be

A planning for the inclusive city town village or small town uh there will be change in governance structures uh the possibility of privatization deal with water wars shortages in fact there’s a water war going right now in atlanta region building codes i hope will be greener and address energy

Efficiency the term zoning i believe may be replaced design standards may increase because as we become more dense people will be more concerned about the appearance of buildings and my hope is that it’ll be an increase in smart city and land management applications and there’ll be a new focus on jobs and

The economy so as i close i want to share with you what is next i’m very pleased that the chair of this new committee uh genie burch is here jeannie if you can just there you are genie uh jeannie will be chairing uh there’ll be about a 12 to 15 month committee

That will be both speaker forums forums and online engagement that we want to engage our members to tell us what are some of the big ideas how do we talk more about the next 50 years so we can then start to be responsible take some of the uncertainty out of the future

And really be diligent about our legacy for the future thank you very much you

ID: 4UdsSxum0lM
Time: 1343664413
Date: 2012-07-30 20:36:53
Duration: 01:29:49

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