Title:کانون توجه انتشارات: وضعیت برنامه ریزی حمل و نقل ۲۰۱۸

این پخش اینترنتی در حال حاضر فقط برای مشاهده در دسترس است و دیگر برای اعتبارات AICP CM قابل استفاده نیست. با حمایت: بخش برنامه ریزی حمل و نقل توضیحات: این وبینار جدیدترین انتشارات بخش برنامه ریزی حمل و نقل APA: وضعیت برنامه ریزی حمل و نقل ۲۰۱۸ را برجسته می کند. وضعیت برنامه ریزی حمل و نقل یک گزارش دوسالانه است که بر موضوعات جاری در زمینه برنامه ریزی حمل و نقل تمرکز دارد. گزارش ۲۰۱۸ بر موضوعاتی مانند: عدم اطمینان در آینده برنامه ریزی حمل و نقل، وسایل نقلیه خودران و فناوری های نوظهور، نوآوری در جمع آوری و تجزیه و تحلیل داده ها، و تحرک شهری و زیست پذیری تمرکز دارد. در این وبینار، یک گروه منتخب از نویسندگان مشارکت کننده، مقالات خود را به اشتراک می گذارند و در مورد نکات مهم و همچنین هرگونه به روز رسانی از زمان انتشار بحث می کنند. مقالاتی که باید پوشش داده شوند: “برنامه ریزی برای وسایل نقلیه خودمختار: تقطیر واقعیت از فانتزی”. “چگونه LA از فناوری برای ارائه تحرک شهری استفاده می کند”؛ «آژانس‌های حمل‌ونقل یک رویکرد برنامه‌ریزی سناریویی برای مسیر نامشخص پیش رو اتخاذ می‌کنند». و “پیشرفت در شمارش خودکار دوچرخه و عابر پیاده”.

قسمتي از متن فيلم: Hello everyone and welcome to the webcast my name is Christine dersu Davis I’m the executive director of the Ohio chapter of APA and chair of the Norman ism division and I am your webcast moderator today is Friday July 20th we will be hearing the presentation publications spotlight the 2018 state of

Transportation planning for technical help during today’s webcast type your questions in the chat box found on the webcast toolbar to the right of your screen or you can call that 1-800 number shown for your content questions related to the presentation again just type your questions and the box located in your

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Will be recording today’s presentation it will be available on our YouTube channel just search planning webcast and we’ll also have a PDF available at the end of the presentation on our web cast web page again Ohio planning org slash planning webcast okay I am now going to

Turn it over to Gabrielle awara yars worse who we’ll be talking to a little bit about the transportation planning division and kind of framing today Gabriella I am turning it over to you good morning everyone thank you so much Christine really appreciate what the clintons Orpheum provides all of divisions and

Chapters in terms of having this webinar capacity I wanted to welcome everyone to today’s special webinar our 2018 state of transportation publication where we have members provide us with the latest and greatest of what’s happening in the transportation field and so we we wanted to also offer it as a webinar in

Addition to the publication so today is just a little snippet of all of the wonderful happenings and the articles that we have in the actual publication and I do encourage you to join the division if you are not a member I know that APA is a bit pricey so if being an

APA member is not something that is a financial opportunity for you you still can join this division as a standalone item for $25 and you get benefits such as access to the state of transportation publication newsletters eblasts as well as wonderful webinars like today so with that I’m

Going to turn it over to our first presenters from our favorite city in the world Los Angeles David Sommers and Karina Macias who work for the LA d-o-t Department of Transportation doing amazing things in our new millennium and modern day so with that thank you David and Karina you

Hello everyone good morning thank you for tuning in to hear more about how LA is using technology to deliver urban mobility I am cutting MSE s a transportation planning associate at the city of Los Angeles Department of Transportation and a David summers a supervising transportation planner leading la do T’s planning policy

Division so I’m going to start off by providing some context as to why l ADOT and the city of Los Angeles prepared this technology strategy most planning professionals would agree that people increasing reliance on our mobile devices and importance of digital presence have influenced a major shift in Travelers transportation preferences

And expectations for service quality these culture changes embrace new mobility products and services we see on our streets today these services tend to be on demand shared and/or offer real-time information nearly two years ago now our city prepared a transportation Technology Strategy whose cover you see on the screen now titled

Urban mobility in a digital age to guide our department into an exciting and pretty unpredictable new age and transportation LA’s technology strategy defines key actions that our department will accomplish in its tools to invest in and manage technologies that help us achieve the goals defined by our city’s

Plans and policies our city’s goals for safe equitable and sustainable mobility are defined by policies and objective in the mobility element of our general plan the mayor sustainable city plan in our department strategic plan the transportation Technology Strategy and the accompanying strategic implementation plan which was released

Just a little bit less than a month ago identify the actions needed to achieve this future for decades Los Angeles and many other California cities have reviewed proposed development based on anticipated impacts to in your section and street level of service readings this approach restricted infill development and motivated planners of

The past to widen streets to avoid vehicle delay the development review process that prioritized free flow vehicle movement helped develop many of the challenges our city and our department is solving today to better estimate the impacts of proposed development on our transportation system and the environment our team invested in various

Datasets that would demystify travel patterns within our city and in Paris to model and monitor more meaningful metrics such as vehicle miles traveled per person our presentation today and as well as the article in the publication focuses on why and how our city built data informed transportation planning

Tools which is one of the many ways that led is implementing LA’s transportation technology strategy since our city is situated at the center of a polycentric region characterized by dispersed communities and employment centers it was important for us to invest in high quality transportation data form from

Our region to build a tool that links transportation and land use decisions so we collected trip data from housing and mixed-use sites in our city we focused trip collection and affordable housing sites a missing data set in the Institute of Transportation engineers trip generation handbook to verify the

Low driving trips of building affordable housing stock we have already adjusted our rates to better reflect lower driving demand of lower income households we updated our travel demand forecasting model the better estimated vehicle miles traveled and to provide a more accurate picture of trip making in our city we calibrated calculations and

Validated model outputs using large datasets collected from GPS connected vehicles and mobile devices in our regional system of in road vehicle detectors this helped increase model sensitivity that are reporting the miles component of the vehicle miles traveled metric we use the local trip counts at mixed-use projects to calibrate a

Mixed-use trip generation data set that is more responsive to build urban context at densities and mixed uses and transit access is seen in Los Angeles by relying on local trip generation rates we can better assured that our modeling tools reflect transportation travel characteristics specific to LA building a greater transparency in the planning

Decisions we used outputs from our travel demand forecasting model and trip generation rates to build a customized vehicle miles traveled calculator to evaluate transportation demand impacts for local land use projects the VMT calculator will be a tool available to transportation practitioners as well as the general public and helps advance

Another goal of the transportation strategy in terms of building platforms of a better transportation experience the first step in Ellie’s planned project review process starts with the project screening criteria which defines the types of projects that are not required to submit a trip technical analysis step 2 of the new process

Requires project applicants to analyze the proposed project impacts on vehicle miles traveled using the city’s customized VMT calculator or the regionally significant projects run or updated travel demand forecasting model directly the CMT calculators in Excel based locally calibrate a tool that requests the users to input their projects location plane land uses and

Project size to estimate its proposed projects vehicle miles traveled it was customized using local travel characteristics for each part of the city based on data from cities travel demand model based on the transportation analysis zones where the project is located it also provides the user with options to include a wide range of

Transportation demand management strategies proven to reduce vehicle miles traveled based on the site’s distance to high-quality transit surrounding land-use diversity and population densities in the street network connectivity mitigation options included in the travel demand forecasting model include a suite of suite of services and strategies that include parking management transit

Incentives so that would be like fall create transit purchases or a transit subsidy for occupancy of the use of either of unit or if it’s being leased educational and marketing programs just to give information about where transit is located and also other commuter productions and also linking to the

Emerging shared mobility services that are that are becoming more prevalent in the city such as bike share or car share services on the right side of the screen you could see that the VMT calculator reports vehicle miles traveled per capita before and after transportation demand management strategies are

Selected for the site so it gives immediate immediate outcome of what the VMP is just based on the basic trip of basic project attributes the final step of the new project review process includes the monitoring and evaluating the effectiveness of the vehicle miles traveled at the project site after the

Project is constructed and in operation by focusing on vehicle miles traveled we can better relate the choices we make during a project evaluation outcome evaluation and outcomes that people care about such as relying more on our transit system in transit incentives and other types of services that that are

That are becoming more prevalent in the city the updated development projects review process builds on an information feedback loop in our city’s planning process we will monitor development at the developments average vehicle ridership data where we’ll have applied a TDM program and further calibrate our vehicle miles traveled calculator – even

More accurately reflect a desired project outcomes around trip making after these projects are in operation through this evaluation and feedback process we’ll be better we building a better data foundation leading to a greater public transparency so that’s our presentation that we have today and we’ll be glad to hear your questions and

Now we’re kicking it off to david Heller you okay can everybody hear me okay good thank you well the looking I’m not sure because you can’t see me but anyway um thank you a good afternoon everybody or good morning for those on the west coast my

Name is David Heller and I work as a program manager for the South Jersey Transportation Planning Organization the MPO for southern New Jersey I will be talking about planning for autonomous vehicles distilling reality from fantasy just a brief disclaimer just the contents of this report reflect my views

And they do not reflect the views of the SJ TBL or any of our member jurisdictions so first of what is an autonomous vehicle autonomous cars they’re also known as driverless cars self-driving cars robotic cars it’s a vehicle that is capable of sensing its environment and navigating without human

Input it uses a variety of techniques to detect its surroundings including radar laser light GPS odometry and computer vision now a related but not identical technology is connected vehicles and connected vehicles allow vehicles to communicate with each other and the world around them and many of today’s vehicles include connected vehicle

Functionality good examples the GPS systems which receive congestion information on the road ahead of them and then we’ll map an alternative route if necessary who’s developing these autonomous vehicles and there are there are quite a few of the major manufacturers are getting into the business on the left is the Tesla Model

S there’s the Ford Fusion on the right hand side there’s also Google wham-o GM cruise LV which is this image at the bottom of your screen and diamond Bosch according to a recent APA for 11 of the largest automakers plan to have fully autonomous vehicles on the road between now and 2021

Now this next slide I don’t maybe some of you have seen this but basically it’s a developed by the Society of automated automotive engineers and it creates a grading level of automation to measure how automated a vehicle is and as you can see it starts at zero which is no

Automation and goes all the way to full automation number five where there’s almost no driver assistance required as of now we are we have gotten to level four high automation where it’s just below of five the vehicle is capable of performing all driving functions under certain conditions conditions but the

Driver does have the option to control the vehicle at this time no level five car has been publicly deployed now obviously with this technology as with a lot of technologies there’s a lot of challenges first combining heavy equipment plus complex software is it difficult both from a design and an

Engineering perspective driving a car is a complex operation involving the flawless simultaneous execution of a billion tiny and subtle reflexes a self-driving car must correctly identify and label millions of objects as well as understand city layouts and traffic laws and operate in a variety of conditions second liability who’s responsible when

Accidents happen the driver the vehicle and software indeed this is a subject that’s being discussed right now third cost now these self-driving vehicles require a variety of special sensors and computers and controls which currently cost tens of thousands of dollars at the outset obviously you know unaffordable to all but the most

Affluent community commuters and drivers there could be a non owned ownership business model as with the ride-sharing characterized by Auburn I’ll get into that a little bit later but that could alleviate some of the cost the full benefits of automotive vehicle deployment may not be realized

For a while chances are and early in the early stage is only a portion of total vehicle travel on any given section of roadway is going to have autonomous vehicles so the benefits are likely to be limited for full system level benefits including increased traffic densities narrower traffic lanes

Reduction in parking supply elimination of traffic signals this will require that most or almost all the vehicle population on any given segment of roadway is autonomous so that’s not going to happen for a while limited market penetration initially similar to number four which we just described again at least in the

Initial phases the operation of autonomous vehicles are going to be most likely optimized for dense urban areas where the people who live there are not as dependent or as not as likely to be dependent on cars as those who live in suburban and rural areas most of the

Discussion on ATS today are focused on more urban environments so it’s a little unclear how this technology will work in low-density and more rural areas and economic impacts many people today or at least the time of this this article was written do rely on driving a vehicle as

Their livelihood and could lose their jobs again statistics from just last year there were approximately 1.7 million truck drivers as well as 1.7 million bus taxi and delivery drivers so needless to say they they’re not encouraging this technology or they’re not they’re worrying about it so now I

Just want to describe a little bit of what’s being done and I think I like this slide because it shows that what’s being done mostly now is a lot of research and on this screen here’s two facilities test facilities on the left is University of Michigan M city in

Being used by automakers to test an experiment with self-driving cars m-city is the world’s first full-scale simulated urban environment designed expressly for testing the performance and safety of automated and autonomous vehicles under controlled and realistic road conditions and to the right here is a similar facility from Penn State in

Pennsylvania it together with the city of Pittsburgh was designated in January of 2017 as one of ten usdot tana most vehicle proving grounds in the country and these are just two research facilities there’s number of other ones all around the country now this next slide I’m not going to go into it in

Detail but the table is in the article I just wanted to kind of outline the range of impacts as well as the time periods that people professionals are expecting from the deployment of ADEs and you can see like become legal are the legal issues like I said earlier that’s being

Done now you can see 2015 to 2025 you scroll or you go down to the bottom of this table says need to plan for mixed traffic as an impact well this will probably occur when the major share of the vehicles are autonomous and as per this chart you know this is twenty to

Forty years away 20:42 60s and then it’s even further away this mandated autonomous vehicles where most vehicles are autonomous and the large benefits are proven so again twenty sixty to eighty s that’s forty to sixty years away so you can see there’s a wide time horizon spanning a lot of the impacts

Much longer than twenty years which is the typical horizon of a long-range transportation plan so the last two slides I just want to talk about some considerations for planners and first increase public investment in research and development in the technology and as has been seen from the news I mean uber

At a self-driving vehicle that hit a pedestrian and March and hit and killed a pedestrian so we all can see that Navy technology is far from flawless second paradigm shift mobility as a service this was touched on a little bit in the previous presentation but basically to the average American

Auto ownership is perceived as a birthright under this mobility as a service concept transportation services are provided through a unified gateway generally in the form of a mobile or web app or centralized website that procures and manages the trip and of course the ride-sharing and hailing services such

As uber and lyft operate under this principle it’s my contention that if autonomous vehicles are ever to take off in a meaningful way they will most likely use this paradigm at least in the beginning the existing key hailing services and taxis in the beginning third incentivize alternative modes now

As planners we currently incentivize alternative modes to like encourage people to take transit for environmental reasons and carpool and we should still continue doing that but we should also continue to incentivize ride-sharing because again I think this will help create kind of the infrastructure if you will to accommodate AV deployment

Trade-offs between reduced parking and increased congestion the table that I showed just a few slides ago one of the impacts it suggested that with widespread of deployment of autonomous vehicles there could likely be a reduction in parking demand and there could also be increased congestion due to the increased AV trips obviously you

Know these may these purposes may work across purposes against one another so planning agencies and planners should be aware of the potential trade-offs between reduced parking and increased congestion cultural shift and travel behavior this kind of ties into the paradigm shift of mobility as a service and

I think what I really meant was planners should start again or continue promoting like TDM strategies like alternative work schedules because in the case of av shifting the peak demand across a wider span of time will allow AVS to operate during a longer portion of the day and potentially increase the utilization

Land use strategies to accommodate AV operation now as planners and planning professionals we can and should continue to research best practices and new strategy strategies that allow for greater density of the mixed use of mixed-use and create an environment more conducive to AV operation obviously most of these

Land use policy changes are difficult to implement given that land use decisions are largely a function of local government and alteration of land use policies usually entails altering the zoning code which as we all know can amount to a very time-consuming and contentious process again that’s you

Know these are things we should be thinking about next the legal issues I mentioned the liability earlier planning for mixed traffic and again this is more of a longer term impact but ultimately if as AV deployment takes off there’s going to be a much more wider variety of

The traffic mix in terms of the traditional conventional manually operated vehicles it’s kind of illustrating this schematic here and then the automated vehicles which is illustrated here again this is just kind of a schematic to give you a general idea but point is the traffic mix is

Going to be a lot more complex the time to begin planning is now though it will be a while before AV deployment becomes widespread and market saturation is reached local government should move beyond the wait-and-see attitude and begin to take action according to a Florida State University study for us

For to do T AV technology is the potential to transform transportation systems and land-use patterns to a level not seen since the mass production of the private autumn real roughly a century ago that’s that’s pretty profound I think and finally planning must account for uncertainty while there’s agreement that

Abs are the next major trend in transportation there’s still a lot of uncertainty regarding how the technology will be implemented for example how long it will take for it to be fully deployed the mix of vehicles has previously discussed the ownership model whether it’s private ownership or shared use and

Etc etc in short planning needs to be agile flexible and adaptable and that concludes my talk and thank you for your attention okay all right thank you David hello and good afternoon everyone my name is excuse me my name is Nathan Hicks and I am a transportation

Planner here in CDM Smith’s Miami office my article focuses on recent advancements and automated counting of bicyclists and pedestrians and some of the implications that current research and initiatives may have for the future and also why this additional research is needed for counting bicyclists and pedestrians so before I get into some of

The advancements I lock I’d like to talk to I’d like to talk about what is used now why and some of the implications of this these current usages when talking to most municipalities or mpos which are the bulk of the agencies that do this type of work they often

Mentioned that counting bicyclists or pedestrians they use infrared devices pneumatic tubing piezo electric strips or simply having somebody stand on the side of the road with a clipboard some of us today may have even done that last one and if you have you know there are some limitations to this kind of

Data you cannot be out there for a long time especially here in Florida being out there for a few being out there for more than a few hours is incredibly difficult so you could really only capture a short perspective of how many bicyclists and pedestrians there may

Actually be along a certain facility or at a intersection and so while these current methodologies aren’t perfect they have been studied significantly and so extrapolations from this kind of data can be used with a strong degree of confidence we recently ran into some of these issues as well when we undertook a

Non-motorized transportation data collection study for the Florida Department of Transportation even though we use newer devices and we install them in various settings we found there were some limitations due to environmental interferences or just limitations due to the physical sites themselves things like reflections or shadows can significantly interfere with some of the

Data that is received and cause abnormalities so how is the field of automated bicycle and pedestrian counting changing and where does it seem to be heading there’s been considerable research in the field of automated and connected vehicles thank you David for mentioning that and much of this centers

On computer vision this research has opened the doors for other applications as well specifically the application of counting bicyclists and pedestrians more easily and while we cannot while this research is able to count bicycles and pedestrians more easily they’re all there are also other types of analyses

That can be undertaken as well for example being able to determine direction speed classifying users as a bicyclist or a pedestrian helmet usage and potential conflicts between users and vehicles at an intersection are some incredibly important factors that can be determined with using computer vision for bicyclists and pedestrians specifically safety analyses at

Intersections are one example which could potentially further the goal of vision zero and I will get into that more in a few in a bit in some few more slides in addition behavior analysis is another potential use of this type of research and I’d like to highlight two researchers who have made considerable

Strides and using computer vision towards this application Bernardo Pierre s here is a research scientist at the robotics Institute at Carnegie Mellon University and dr. tariq saeed who is the director of UBC’s bureau of intelligent transportation systems and freight security both of these researchers have completed studies and

Are still doing research using computer vision for counting bicyclists and pedestrians after an oops excuse me Bernardo and his team of researchers conducted testing with their algorithms oh my apologies everybody I believe I opened up an old slide and no presentation I will open up the correct one here my apology you

Thank you sorry for the delay as I was saying Bernardo PRS and his team of researchers conducted testing of their algorithms using bicycle and pedestrian video data after installing a mobile counting device the intelligent mobility leader which is something they developed and recording and processing the data they were able to classify bicyclists

And pedestrians correctly but the 95% accuracy during the classification process while this is considerably high there is also variability due to other conditions the type of environment low-light settings can affect the classification process significantly here is one example of what the computer sees itself here we can see the

Pedestrians and the bicyclists Pat using a screen line test to a parking lot entrance here we can see the pedestrians with their footpath their steps tracked by the computer with these purple and green circles as well as the bicyclists tracked here as well so not only is the

Direction analyzed by the computer but the speed is as well which helps classify these users into either a bit a bicyclist or a pedestrian the other researcher I mentioned dr. tariq saeed has achieved similar results and more in his research he was able to determine whether these users were wearing a

Helmet and potential conflicts between vehicles both of which are critical for safety analyses for example he mentioned in one of his studies bicyclists who were more likely to bicycles to war helmets were more likely to travel at faster speeds while this point makes sense it is an important safety factor

And it is great to have data backing up this point but as we can also see the variability for accuracy and his study was between 85 to 96% to classify bicycles and pedestrians so more research and testing is needed here it is example of a image

Of one of the of an intersection in China we can see all the various many of the various vehicles pedestrians bicyclists have been categorized or have been classified and have been noted by the computer now unfortunately I can’t show the video but here we we would be able to see what directions they’re

Taking and potential conflicts throughout this intersection here is an example of how this type of research and how this type of capacity could impact not only just counting of bicycles pedestrian but also additional research and before and sieved the analyses this is an image of a intersection where

There is currently no scramble phase for pedestrians they must walk from one side as the other here here here etc after this has been installed the researchers were able to go back and look at potential conflicts dwelling time here at the corners and determined what sorts of changes happened from this type of

Intersection improvement and overall found that safety was improved pedestrians had to wait at the intersection less and overall was a improvement for all modes so what can we come to expect for this type of analysis and this type of automated counting while more research is needed of course

To improve accuracy and lower the cost of analysis this has the potential to drastically change how we count bicyclists and pedestrians one important limitation though is the fact that powerful computers are needed to analyze the video that is coming in to them all so it can take a significant amount of

Time to analyze the images so that is one aspect that’s kind of limiting this type of research as well new modes come into play as I’m sure many people have seen dhoklas scooters have been implemented in many cities including here in Miami and those sorts of new

Modes have to be adjusted in accounted for in order to avoid incorrect classification just as well another limitation is low video resolution or low-light conditions without high-definition video or clearer conditions the accuracy of this type of counting dropped significantly and one more point while I focused on automated

Counting with video what about Bluetooth and aggregated data such as Strava well bluetooth per take in particular and there is a significant amount of research going on in that field actually just at the recent NAT Met conference in Irvine California there were a number of researchers that were able to show

Improve counting of pedestrians throughout various intersections as well as I’m sure many people have heard of Strava and perhaps even use that data though those data sets do have certain limitations and perhaps inherent biases with people who use that type of service or perhaps own or do not own a

Smartphone though that can be adjusted for so as we can see there is a significant amount of research occurring and it’s fascinating to see how this is going to change bicycle is the way that we measure and count and monitor bicyclists and pedestrians in the coming years and I appreciate your time for

Today thank you and I will turn it over to lesson 10 now you all right well thank you very much everybody my name is Tim store I’m working as an analyst at ICF and I’ll be presenting today on behalf of myself and my co-author Wes Brown on our article titled

Transportation agencies and scenario planning approaches for the uncertain road ahead quick disclaimer while this presentation and its associate article draw heavily on work standard contract for the USDOT this presentation and its related article reflects only the views of myself and my co-author and it’s not an official presentation on path of USC ot

Um so that would just jump right in so I want to start with a little bit of a comparison in history that some of you may be familiar with underscores the importance of public policy within the context of shaping technology development um and in this context we

Talk a lot about autonomous – connected vehicles Los Angeles which some of you may know in the early 1900’s was one of had one of the world’s largest transit systems and busiest pedestrian crossings it was only after decades of very Auto centric actions which contributed reversing this trend that it became now

Known as also the standard kind of hallmark of congestion and sprawl and the mission that is noted in the transportation community and ranked down by according to internet says the most congested city in the world Portland conversely had a similar decision-making trajectory and by the 1970s much of its downtown was devoted

To parking in 1980s however forward-thinking policies directly growth towards two quarters facilitated density and help revitalize the economy and today Portland as as many of you may know is to ranked as one of the best cities new out your bicycle walk into transit so in the nineteen hundreds when

The advent of the afford automobile was the primary sort of technological revolution at a time we clearly saw how public policies in combination with other factors they serve in a graphic for your talents and so forth we’re very important in shaping how this technology took hold and what their effects work

And we expected new technologies or development to be different so in this in this current environment we have several new technologies that have been highlighted here and thank you David for doing an excellent job in summarizing automating connecting vehicles the primary two that we are discussing in our article and in this

Presentation but it isn’t just the new technologies as well it’s also very uncertain policy and behavioral context you know when and how will automated vehicles be regulated what are the relevant government governing authorities what sorts of Industry agreements and standards and partnerships will arise are all very important questions and remain largely

Unanswered and relates these technologies themselves are also a whole suite of emergent phenomenon ride-hailing being perhaps the most obvious today which is you know derivative of advances in mobile technology and widespread use of mobile phones and connectivity and also data on data analytics and there’s also several others David touched on multimodal ISM

And this idea of mobility as a service and the ability to more easily now than ever before plan trips across many different services in many modes or some of these example emergent phenomena and sorry I realize may be seeing some of this here there we go and in addition to these

Emergent phenomenon we also have a whole suite of outcomes some of these are listed here though there are certainly many more about how connected and automated vehicles can influence public sector activities as well as society as a whole and there really is uncertainty at each of these phases uncertainty in

What the technology itself will be able to do and when it will arrive uncertainty in how we regulated how standards and partnerships will evolve uncertainty in how those will manifest in kind of new business models and emergent phenomenon and then uncertainty and the outcomes of those things so

There’s a lot of uncertainty for planners to deal with when making decisions that we know ultimately be very important in actually creating the cities of the future so it is to that end that the that we are discussing scenario planning as one of the possible methods for dealing with that

Uncertainty in helping public sector agencies optimize their assets and plan according a very new and exciting era scenario planning offers the benefits of being able to kind of explore past trajectories current activities and future trajectories seeing what the various futures might look like analyzing them very proactively and assessing the opportunities and risks

Associated with those trajectories and what agencies might currently be doing that could be obviated or that could be especially useful under certain different certain scenarios in the future and this is catching on right now in a big way which i think is a very good thing in 2015 the National League

Of Cities indicated only 6% of agencies had incorporated abs into their planning and I’m not shown here but even even fewer I believe 3% had incorporated transportation network companies such as uber and lyft in some fashion into their long-range plan from 2015 they even in 2018 that’s jumped significantly to 36%

Of cities planning for autonomous vehicles in some capacity and some of these early adopters are listed here though there are many others and growing every day so one of those examples we highlighted in our article that all its detail a little further here is the Jacksonville Transportation Authority in Florida and

They conducted a scenario planning exercise in the spring of 2017 focus focused on identifying scenarios for the agency’s role in the new technology context where there were connected and automated vehicles and all the various emergent phenomena that they may create so they connected a literature review of

What these technologies might be able to do and where they were now they analyzed their existing and future plans based on their date based on data that they had and other sorts of demographic forecasts and they convened the workshop with peer agencies to form specific scenarios about what their agency what its role

Might be in this context and they had various scenarios including some where the agency was much more involved and had a much more elaborate role in kind of conducting and managing these technologies and others where it was much more on the sidelines had a much smaller role for example and across all

These scenarios they examine them and they figured well what would the Howard agency goals change how would the agency evolve in terms of the services it wanted to provide and and how it engaged with other and with other regulatory bodies and so forth and they found they

Had various findings about how many of their goals would stay the same the goal of the public transit system is still to ensure equity and provide access and to have interdisciplinary connections with other fields of policy and all these other things that JTA is working on now and they identified

Several areas where their activities currently could be could be leveraged in new technology contexts so that’s just one example there are many others currents and plans with agencies around the country so FHWA scenario planning project which is the focus of this presentation and a big big focus in the

Article as well is to equip agencies to deal with uncertainty and to reduce the burden on say local agencies in addressing CV and AV risks and opportunities much like what was done in Jacksonville and in other areas in the country specifically this project wanted to help agencies conduct

An exploratory scenario planning kind of analysis which is which I’m like normative scenario planning where you have various scenarios and you pick the one that works the best that has that is the goal in your try to achieve that scenario exploratory scenario planning rests on the idea that there are a whole

Bunch of doggedness factors that are really outside of the planners control that can create a whole range of different scenarios and that you want to look across all those different scenarios and identify risks and opportunities present across all of them and also figure out a means to identify

Which path you’re heading towards and interpret new developments as you go along so this project had several different kind of deliverables so the speaker or final products the first is the actual scenarios themselves themselves this project created six completely new future scenarios with DV nav that could

Be used by agencies across the country they conducted two workshops the first with industry and academic experts to refine and kind of stress those scenarios to make sure they were consistent and logical and at least somewhat plausible although not necessarily equally so the purpose of this was not to predict the future but

Rather to kind of encapsulate the possible features are a set of serious and then the second workshop being to determine the impacts of clamps so there is a forthcoming final report ad which details the scenarios themselves in the process to create them and the rationale and all that and as well as a

Practitioner guidance document that will be a standalone resource to planners to conduct their own scenario planning exercises and to take the very general scenarios that we have and apply them to their specific regions around the country so just a little bit on that process that I’ll discuss today we started with

A whole list of drivers and levers which included technological developments consumer preferences socioeconomic factors government actions all of these things have big roles to play in the time line for CB Nav adoption the way those technologies are used and their impacts then you can conceivably create future scenarios centering around any of

These and many more they are not on these lists but that would be in a cumbersome in just to many centers needs a more manageable number so those drivers and levers were synthesized into what we call our three key uncertainties connectivity automation and cooperation connectivity really just about what percentage of

Vehicles can both transmit and receive information on both long-term trip planning information you know where is the traffic whether the forecast and also immediate safety information what cars around me are moving in out fast and then automation and David touched on the Society of Automotive Engineers levels of automation you know so which

What kind of automated level is available an affordable and in what areas can they operate and then lastly this idea cooperation was deemed to be very witches to what extent do agencies and companies adjust their operational practices and policies in accordance with other entities you know this means

To what extent are people integrating payment across lots of different roads to what extent is a synchronous synchronization and schedules or multimodal infrastructure you know so we have pickup and drop off lanes at train stations more often than parking lots for example in the future so those are

The kinds of things that we considered cooperative developments and all three of these categories are very important kind of key uncertainties that can shape different futures so those were synthesized into six feature scenarios and in the interest of time I won’t detail these significantly here further information about them can be found in

Our final report which is not released yet but should be hopefully publicly they’ll all very soon the product is still underway though so we do want to put that disclaimer on all the names and details in these slides but these are the six scenarios here and the main

Takeaway with this is that they each have varying ratings along these these scales you know varying degrees of connectivity automation cooperation in them that define what the scenario is like I’m associated with each of these scenarios there were analyses of their impacts and and what to expect both from

The perspective of planners into society within each of them this diagram here just shows kind of that in underscores that they are trajectories the scenarios are not simply snapshots in time and saying this is what the world looks like it also includes discussion of how the world would get there they all take

Place in 2035 which was deemed to be a time line roughly in line with a long-range planning process and that this basically just underscores those differences again I I’ve just due to time constraints won’t detail each of the scenarios individually on there they are they are all I think fairly

Interesting and worth consideration but we won’t go into all of them today so to maximize the usefulness of these scenarios we hosted a second workshop where we brought in state and local planners from around the country and basically asked them under each of these scenarios kind of run them what would

They mean for you what do they mean for your planning what things you have that might be useless what would be especially useful what opportunities will arise and and kind of how does how do your operations change and then on the second day of the workshop we really

Kind of flip the question and said okay how can we make a practitioner guidance document that is most useful to you and what kind of final deliverable from this could actually help agencies take scenarios analyze them and then change plans and procedures so here are some of the common risks and

Commonly valuable actions just a sample there’s much more detail a mess in our final report documentation because one of the benefits of scenario planning was not meant to directly predict the future and in certain things that are identified as valuable across all scenarios for example digitizing road

Signs speeds and markings so they can be used for apps and for automated vehicle purposes is going to be used to under all of these scenarios even the ones the very low automation where they have high connectivity could still be useful and certainly wouldn’t be be a negative many

Of them so we did it this kind of analysis for all these scenarios and that’s also present in the practitioner guidance for state local officials as well and here we also these are just all diagrams from our report and this last one I’ll touch on quickly there’s a lot

Of text here but the main takeaway if you look at the simplest case which is our baseline in the middle which is just basically a minimal plausible change scenario what’s the least different 20:35 to look like versus today in terms of CD nav it simply says no further breakthroughs in security quality

Marginal growth and the other scenarios you would see information about what are the key markers that would need to happen for that scenario to occur and that’s we thought is also very important in the scenario planning framework because if you look at step six here I’ll work backward kind of it’s to

Monitor industry and policy developments and have an understanding to help agencies understand what it means when we see big signing agreements when you see for example uber buying fleets of autonomous vehicles to operate and then things big signals like this and in the future any big regulatory programs and

So forth so the practitioner guidance starts off with defining understanding CD nav what do we mean what are these what are the definitions of these technologies determining goals and stakeholders in your planning process and this would be very different for each agency you know who needs to be

Involved in the stand planning exercise who are the people who have transportation stake in their region and then third understanding driving forces and center origins understanding the scenarios simply uh and then step four is the most critical part probably and that’s where these scenarios are tailored to the locality and we have

These scenarios we’re deliberately designed vague enough that they don’t talk about specific kinds of systems or modes but the idea is that localities would talk about how they manifest down to the most specific terms possible in that region and then incorporate those kind of results and analysis of what it

Looks like in their region into their decision-making so that’s the idea of the ultimate guidance we wanted to make from this project and to help use scenario planning as a means to deal with uncertainty and our conclusions from this this product is Mormont’s to provide guidance rather than as a report

With traditional conclusions but our kind of implicit conclusions are that scenario planning has been and will continue to be a very valuable tool for for state and local planners at least and possibly at other levels too and there is no exact one-size-fits-all approach to scenario planning I mean there’s different context resources and

Goals and perspectives and for JTA that was defying the agencies role for others it might be just determining whether certain investments are valuable or something more narrow so yeah and also normative and exploratory in this context we’re talking about exploratory so I wanted to mention that as well but

That’s that’s it that’s an overview of the project and with that I will turn things back to our webinar organizers and thank you very much okay great thank you let’s go ahead and get started with those questions if you have them just type them in the chat box again on

Your webinar tool panel and just as a reminder again we will have the presentation available to download as a PDF at the conclusion just visit our web cast web page Ohio planning org slash planning webcast and we’ll also have a recording available on our youtube page to search planning webcast on youtube

Okay first question is for David and Karina how is project monitoring carried out after the project is complete okay okay great question yeah we’re just developing that process as we speak so we do we do have several large development projects that have been built that I have similar travel demand

Management commitments today we get sort of the analog PDF or paper reports that we read and and they demonstrate compliance with a measure through measuring their average vehicle ridership at the site level so they do on-site trip surveys devolve mostly employer sites today we do want to transition this to residential so large

Residential projects where they may have to have some sort of transportation coordination amongst their like a property management company or potentially membership with the transportation management organization and at week we would want to build in an incentive to participate with a PMO within our administrative framework to

Make that easy for those needing to comply with the TDM ordinance but quite more simply we will be looking at two metrics of average vehicle ridership and parking utilization as as as the performance metrics going forward thank you um and while I have you could you speak to the adaptability of the TDM

Model to other cities and to specifically suburban and rural environments yeah we we’ve we’ve done no up that that’s another great question we um so a lot of our a lot of our understanding of how TDM works have been taken from studies of cities throughout California

Some of them have been in more suburban context some of them have been in urban context but Karina you want to speak to how we understand the city structure in terms of transportation behavior and how that may translate to other categories of areas he’d done a lot of work on them

Yeah sure so what we did in LA was not only gather localized trip generation data from a variety of sites which is pretty important in order to get your trip generation estimates as accurate as possible we’ve also gone and defined different areas of the city based on their peoples propensity to use transit

In those areas given street network connectivity land-use diversity population density daytime population density and another number of other factors that which we know to tend to influence travel decisions and all of that has kind of culminated in this calculator so other agencies interested in building something that’s more localized development review process

That’s based on actual data could be able to apply the same process as our city has done but wouldn’t be able to use this tool that’s been built around LA specific data one thing I would add is I think we’re really excited about the potential for transportation services to better reach suburban areas

So kind of reflected in some of the other presentations about you know what it means to be an access to transit that there are services that we feel that that would be better suited to fit a more suburban context like a on demand type of transit services if it’s a

Particularly large new project developed in the area where there isn’t a lot of transit service to better better fit then maybe this is a way we are looking at this as a way to better encourage shared shared vehicle use to build that bridge for that automated future

Thank you um and for for those I just had someone type in what is TDM the transportation demand management also known as mobility management or transportation demand management perfect okay thank you next question let’s roll down to David Heller could you tell us why the automated bicycle and pedestrian

Counting why China was used specifically in the research was this furred yeah I think it was the other it was yeah it was for Nathan yes yes I’m sorry no not a problem specifically well that was a study that dr. Turk seed had done in conjunction I

Believe with the University in China so that’s why that intersection was specifically used was because it was referencing the the study that was done there okay great thank you um I think this one was for David Heller and folks if you could type in who the question is for it

I would that would also be helpful the the land-use schematic doesn’t include bikes and pedestrians how do they fit in okay that’s that’s that’s a good question and to be honest I I didn’t really I didn’t focus on the bikes and pedestrians in my talk mostly obviously

There’s a lot of content that I was trying to get across so but bicycle and pedestrians is definitely an important component and off the top of my head I can I can’t give you an exact response but as I think has been maybe not shown in this particular presentation but I’ve

I’ve seen and other presentations you know there’s dedicated bike lanes and pedestrian walkways it may be a little bit like in Nathan’s like Neeson was doing the counts on a lot of those types of facilities so I think those would there would be a similar type of infrastructure with the automated

Vehicle so that was a schematic it was kind of designed to give the viewers a general ideas of you know the vehicles mix of vehicles but definitely wasn’t a comprehensive view of all the different considerations so okay thank you Nathan were you in a congested urban area or a more wide-open suburban area

When you were doing your counting in Florida it was a little bit of everything actually what we did was we went to 26 various sites throughout South Florida so there’s definitely a bit more of a I supposed urban perspective but we wanted to try and test in multitude of settings rural

Settings suburban etc and we tried to use the recent classification system that the Florida Department of Transportation came out with context land use classification zone as part of their Complete Streets initiative so we would identify a few various sites based off of those criteria and whether those

Sites were counted in the past the way we could compare previously collected data to what we collected and that was the for the most part where we counted so we did count in some schools school zone areas a some were on trails some were on roadways more I guess you could

Say more urban arterioles we couldn’t test in every single specific setting we had to essentially narrow it down to what was available or what we thought was critical but like I was saying it was 26 sites and somewhere on one side of the roadway and somewhere on both

Sides and for each of those sites we used passive infrared devices we used automated video as well as pneumatic tubing either on the sidewalk on the bicycle lane if there was one or on both as well as in some instances we used Bluetooth although we had mixed results

With that particular type of device thank you um doclist bicycles have been introduced in the new york city area where the bikes can be left wherever the rider gets off and then someone can come by and ride the same bike away is this kind of bike introduction going to skew

The results of counts in environments that have this type of ductless bicycle system well then assuming that was for me yes okay it depends on what the definition of skew tough technically if somebody begins and ends a trip that would be their trip if anything the advent of

Dhoklas bicycles and Dhokla scooters and those types of modes show a demand that is potentially not being met but when somebody completes that trip in that area it’s showing that there there is that demand so in my opinion no it wouldn’t skew it if anything it just

Shows what people actually would want to do instead okay thank you um okay real quick Tim could you um I don’t know if you have this as a PowerPoint or if you have this as a PDF are you able to edit David Heller’s email contact info we need to add an S

Let me see yeah DD how are the how are at sjt Pio RG it’s in our little challenge okay yeah go right ahead yeah just so that if folks want to contact them they have the right info sure can you read that off one more time just add

An S as in Sam right after you’re at okay um thank you yeah let’s see next question okay for Urbanists who are interested in active transport such as walking and biking and land-use patterns that support Carles lifestyles do you think autonomous cars will help or hurt

And I guess this could really be for anybody I guess this is Tim sure I’ll jump in briefly on that but certainly other panelists or some should feel free to jump in as well I think that and this is perhaps unsatisfying answer but I think it is really context dependent and

Unclear I think that could very easily if you fast-forward to 2035 for example and look at any given city in the world you can see two very different trajectories as to how these technologies manifests in terms of how they affect other modes and the overall modal multimodal car free lifestyle and

In degree the degree to which that’s possible it bad that’s kind of our impetus for doing this project I really do believe that certainly policy but also other variables as well cultural factors and things like that play a role it may not be you know looking internationally especially – there are

Certain cities that have cultures and density that could be especially favorable to kind of using these technologies and very targeted ways it could be really effective so it’s a question that I think remains very unclear but if you can narrow it to a specific place ago I think will become a

Little bit clearer and will clarify over time so that’s why my answer okay hi this is this Karina from la deity just to add to that it really is going to depend on how local jurisdictions build their infrastructure not only their physical concrete but also how they actively manage and

Communicate with any new technology and that really building out that level of short-range communication with these new vehicles is going to take a lot of planning and testing right now so that when we do have some sort of either shared or private autonomous fleet will

Will have all of the systems in place to be able to regulate and enforce and communicate with them so that they use the streets that we would like to designate for them to use and it becomes more much more collaborative rather than having the city catch up okay next question what should planners

Do to ensure that companies like uber don’t have massive negative impacts on bus riders people with disabilities low-income folks the company’s growing this tech and mobility a service are very good at making sure there is no mandatory regulation anyone want to take this one sure this is Timisoara I’ll

Jump in jump in busy on it it’s a big question but I guess the first thing is the question implies negative impact so yes it is definitely the case that if for example services like uber or uber pool or Express school cannibalized bus ridership so much that bus lines are

Discarded and instead it’s just kind of the public transportation is privatized no oversight it’s very foreseeable there could be situations where specific populations geographically or demographically are left out and traditional equity concerns with the public sector having left to the public sector gets fall by the wayside and that

Would be that but conversely there’s lots of ways those technologies can be used to actually help those people I mean there have been successful pilots already in Boston for example where their paratransit service also is using a beliefs it’s camera of a tuber or lift one of the two perhaps both now actually

In addition to traditional paratransit bans as part of their service called the ride where users who feel perfectly comfortable getting into an uber lift instead of calling the traditional paratransit and can get in those and drive around they find that that service is more convenient actually it’s helping

Them it’s helping those riders that’s what they would report it’s very popular as I understand it so that’s an example there are many other examples so I think it’s a complicated question I think the crux of the question really isn’t whether uber and lyft are going to ruin

Public transit I think the better way to phrase the question is what is public transit when you have um so that’s kind of how I drew frame it I would also just look at reframing it around like how our funding sources for transportation it for thinking about especially in the world of autonomous

Vehicles I think it highlights the need and especially in congested urban areas to think seriously about congestion pricing and how you know creating that as a revenue source could potentially balance those that might be that might be hit by congestion pricing fees to fund transit services to continue to

Providing that that a subsidized service relative to the cost of writing a personalized vehicle so I think it does or urge the valuation of strategies that have already been before us and that may even have greater urgency and I would go back and agree with Tim I

Think what’s really changing is the role the role of the transit agency the role of uber these companies are so new that they’re these roles and responsibilities haven’t yet been clearly defined and with the tech sector in general things change so quickly so seeing those changes come into play is interesting

And they’re going to have to be defined more well defined in the coming years Thanks um interesting question Nathan what is the most dangerous intersection for pedestrians and bicyclists in South Florida oh goodness most dangerous or perhaps rephrasing it is what makes a dangerous intersection for pedestrians and

Bicyclists well I’ll speak more to I suppose well here in South Florida we have we do have density but we also have very large urban arterioles and it’s not uncommon on these urban arterioles for people to speed much more than the current speed limit is set and with the

In conjunction with the land use which is a significant a significant amount of lower density single-family homes people want to get where they’re going faster and that’s leading which kind of leads to the speeding so probably I mean more than likely there are some of the intersections in downtown which would be

Probably most dangerous but those intersections in particular the ones that are on those urban arterioles especially with ones that are kind of near pedestrian centers those are I would have to say the most dangerous of the ones I’m sure many people have heard about the bridge collapse near FIU that

Bridge was going across to a new housing complex that was right across from FIU and that sits on Southwest 8th Street which is incredibly dangerous road in one of those types of urban arterioles in particular that bridge was needed because of the type of roadway that’s

There so that’s a good example I suppose of one that’s most dangerous because that’s a very common that the roads down here in South Florida are built they are making changes but it’s slow but sure okay anyone else have any comments on specifically what makes a interest and intersection dangerous for a pedestrian

Or a bicyclist well Dave Dave Howard here just if I can chime in I mean in in our area South Jersey it’s it’s pretty rural for the most part and you know there’s a lot of four-way stop four-way stop signs or there even could

Be just to stop you know one one part of the intersection is has stop signs on the other is just through traffic so I I think that that makes it very very dangerous I mean there’s a lot of parts of our region there’s no no sidewalks and I mean bike

Lanes it’s it’s it’s it’s common in the more tourist areas like the New Jersey Shore along there but in like Central in the center part of South Jersey violent area it’s there’s almost no accommodation for for bicycles and pedestrians and you know even like I said shortage of sidewalks so again

We’re a rural area but I you know we’ve and we we do obviously measure of this accident and crash statistics including bicycle and pedestrian fatalities and so it’s the big issue I think on a lot of the rural road I don’t know if that applies to some of the these areas

Because it seems like most of the other panelists are from more urban areas but I think I’ve seen that and observed that here okay thank you um this is interesting how how our autonomous vehicle adoptions integrating health considerations autonomous vehicles of technology are likely to reduce the amount of walking

And biking has anyone looked at this will a vehicle being autonomous really make a difference between you know would someone be apt to drive a vehicle regardless if it was autonomous or not first taking public transportation or walking or biking does anyone have any comments on that

Just I guess all-time in Dave Howard now I didn’t address this in my paper or in my article so it’s a very good question I I do think my first reaction is is that it’s kind of what the question you know a couple minutes ago about the dis

Eight you know some of the person who asked about uber and left and you know accommodating the lower income of the disadvantaged populations icy autonomous vehicles definitely helping them people with you know difficulty walking or disabled or can’t afford a car definitely see that so as far as so in a

Broad sense I think that that will help improve the communities health that like the global health in terms of people can get to medical appointments and and doctor’s visits or things like that but in terms of active transportation like walking or biking it that’s a good

Question I do think I can’t really give a good answer but I I think that would be that would be a challenge I’ll talk about it for a second it’s it is a good question and the impacts for bicycling and pedestrian pedestrians and walking it’s important and I think part

Of that comes down to cost how much these types of services cost here in Miami we have a multitude of free trolley or transit services and it’s not uncommon for people to shift their mode from perhaps walking or bicycling to taking that but in terms of uber and

Lyft or some other type of automated vehicle in the future it I think it depends honestly how much it would cost to get from that maybe that one mile trip Nathan oh go ahead with someone gonna say something else uh yeah sure this is tensor I’ll add some freak commerce that

As well I think that the short answer I think is if you have advances in row technology to make it cheaper and more accessible and otherwise easier to use all else equal more people will do it instead of walking included so the question is will automated vehicle make

People walk us and instead riding out of any vehicles I think it’s absolutely yes it’s a little bit more complicated when you think that the future doesn’t just include advances not many vehicles there’s advances in all kinds of other modes including things like scooters and bikes and the ability people to access

Those modes too so I don’t think you need to view that in isolation but even already if you’re talking and I completely agree with the previous point it all depends how much it costs as well and whether people are willing to pay it for the last mile but even already there

Is data suggesting that ubirr and lyft especially you were pull and lyft line and especially in rainy weather are already polling data are already pulling trips from walking you know people who walk to the grocery store and get there and find it’s raining will easily no-brainer pull those apps to bring

Themselves home rather than walk so then that’s and that that might cost those costs you know a little over $2 a mile but most reports suggest that if you have an automated shared use electric fleet that has an efficient ride matching algorithm they can conceivably

Get user cost down to less than 30 cents a mile so in that case it’s pretty hard to imagine how when cannibalize walking at least so will is my answer but others feel free to share their thoughts but that’s I think that’s the kind of right

Okay I just took a look at the time and I think we’re just gonna go ahead and wrap up now if you did not get your question answered feel free to reach out to the panelists for today thanks to all of you for joining today Gabrielle I know you’re hanging around somewhere on

The line so thank you for the transportation division from that perspective for coordinating everything today and everyone behind the scenes who I’ve spoken with who’s gotten you all together thank you into the transportation planning division for sponsoring today’s webcast again the PDF presentation will be available on our

Web cast web page Ohio planning org slash planning web cast and we’ll also have a recording available on our YouTube channel just search planning webcast thanks again everybody and have a great weekend

ID: 76kSyrsCnjg
Time: 1532376269
Date: 2018-07-24 00:34:29
Duration: 01:28:49

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