Title:ساختن یک ملت تاب آور، با APA و NOAA

از آنجایی که جوامع و مشاغل در سراسر ایالات متحده با خطرات و آسیب پذیری فزاینده در برابر بلایای طبیعی و تغییرات طولانی مدت محیطی روبرو هستند، تقاضای فزاینده ای برای اطلاعات، داده ها، محصولات و خدمات برای رسیدگی به این چالش ها وجود دارد. در این جلسه کنفرانس برنامه ریزی ملی در سال ۲۰۱۶، دکتر کاترین سالیوان، معاون وزیر بازرگانی اقیانوس ها و جو و مدیر اداره ملی اقیانوسی و جوی (NOAA) به تشریح چگونگی برآورده کردن این نیازها توسط آژانس اطلاعات محیطی کشور برای ایجاد جوامع و مشاغل انعطاف پذیر می پردازد. هر روز، NOAA به افراد، مشاغل و دولت ها کمک می کند تا تصمیمات هوشمندانه ای اتخاذ کنند که به طور مستقیم بر آینده جامعه، اقتصاد و محیط زیست تأثیر می گذارد. دکتر سالیوان از سرمایه‌گذاری در زیرساخت‌های رصدی پیشرفته گرفته تا توسعه خدمات هواشناسی ایالات متحده برای برآوردن نیازهای رو به رشد برای اطلاعات دقیق‌تر و به موقع‌تر آب و هوا و آب و هوا، تلاش‌های آژانس را برای بهبود ظرفیت خود برای پیش‌بینی، پاسخ‌گویی به و بهبودی از آب و هوا و رویدادهای هیدرولوژیکی با تاثیر زیاد. دکتر سالیوان همچنین طرح یکپارچه آب جدید NOAA را تشریح می کند، یک چشم انداز پنج ساله برای شروع تعدادی از محصولات و خدمات جدید برای تقویت امنیت آبی کشور، کاهش آسیب پذیری آب، و ایجاد کارایی و اثربخشی بیشتر در نحوه مدیریت و استفاده از منابع آب. . NOAA و APA سابقه طولانی همکاری با تمرکز بر کمک به جوامع برای مقابله با خشکسالی و سیل، بهبود کیفیت آب و کاهش آبگرفتگی ساحلی از جمله تهدیدات دیگر دارند. درباره کارهای در حال انجام و نحوه کار NOAA برای ایجاد جوامع زنده و پر رونق بیشتر بیاموزید. سخنرانان: دکتر کاترین سالیوان، معاون وزیر بازرگانی اقیانوس ها و جو و مدیر NOAA، جیمز شواب، مدیر FAICP، مرکز تحقیقات برنامه ریزی خطرات، انجمن برنامه ریزی آمریکا درباره کاهش خطر و کار بازیابی فاجعه APA بیشتر بدانید: https://www.planning.org/nationalcenters/hazards/

اداره ملی اقیانوسی و جوی: http://www.noaa.gov/

قسمتي از متن فيلم: Good morning proud of all of you for getting out of bed early enough after all that activity last night its receptions and whatever else was going on to get here at 7:30 in the morning we know this is an early session so we’re happy to have the audience we have this

Is a very important session for us we’re honored to have the Undersecretary of Commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator Kathryn Sullivan with us this morning to talk about the NOAA programs supporting resiliency just before I introduce her I want to say that resilience has become an extremely

Important topic for APA by way of introduction for myself I’m Jim suave managed a piays hazards planning center and I will go through a presentation about the programs and projects that we have been doing in cooperation with NOAA in recent years so the NOAA APA partnership but we have been emphasizing

The importance of planners getting involved in a number of issues that didn’t use to necessarily be perceived as the purview of planners particularly Hazard Mitigation disaster recovery and more recently climate change adaptation in order to bring planners into the into some very important discussions but also to realize the importance of those

Issues for their communities and that you know we saw that presentation yesterday morning in the opening plenary about all these various kinds of technological innovations and other societal changes that are bearing down upon us that planners need to account for in order to keep their communities abreast of where

Change is leading them or help how they can lead the change in the first place and so this is actually very important so we will get back to the question of exactly what the the Noah APA relationship is but first I want to take a moment to introduce dr. Katherine

Sullivan and let her do her presentation to you about what NOAA is engaged in these days and then we’ll get back to like I said the the APA discussion dr. Katherine Sullivan is as I said the Undersecretary of Commerce for oceans and atmosphere and the NOAA administrator she is a distinguished

Scientist a renowned astronaut and an intrepid explorer some of this might be jealous of the astronaut piece you know not too many people get to see the Earth from outer space her impressive expertise spans the frontiers of space and sea an accomplished oceanographer she was appointed NOAA’s chief scientist

In 1993 where she oversaw a research and Technology portfolio that included fisheries biology climate change satellite instrumentation and marine biodiversity and she served in that role for three years then spent a decade as president and CEO of the Center of Science and Industry in Columbus Ohio one of the nation’s leading science

Museums over the years she has held several other leadership positions in NOAA dr. Salvin was one of the first six women selected to join the nasa astronaut corps in 1978 and she holds the distinction of being the first american woman to walk in space she flew on three Shuttle missions during her 15

Year tenure and that included the mission that deployed the Hubble Space Telescope she has also served on the National Science Board from 2004 to 2010 and as an oceanographer in the u.s. Navy Reserve from 19 – mm she holds a bachelor’s degree in Earth Sciences from the University of

California at Santa Cruz and a doctorate in geology from Dalhousie University in Canada so dr. Sullivan welcome thank you Jim I’m delighted to be here with all of you and have a chance to speak a little bit about what NOAA is doing in this important domain of resilience and in

Other areas that intersect with all of your work I do want to start though by congratulating Jim and also another colleague of yours David Ralph’s both of whom have been made fellows of AICP this year this is always a great and wonderful high honor to have your peers

Elect you to be fellow in such a important Association some of you may be aware that Jim maintains quite an active blog and the lawyers I’m sure would frown on no administrators doing anything that might promote his blog or his book reviews or discussions that you

Can find at Jim schwab.com if you wished to but I do want to highlight one recent post that stood out to me Jim acknowledged that being a fellow bestows quote bestows not only honor but obligation to continue to help serve and advance the profession and Jim I want to

Salute you for that sentiment and applaud you and Dave both for the honor but more importantly for the commitment that your comment reflects about continuing to serve this profession well well and I have a clicker let’s see if I can there you go before I moved to my other my formal

Remarks not very formal remarks I have to do one other shout out I was delighted to read that the MKS K firm is receiving one of a IC P’s highest honors at this meeting and it’s for this project this is called the Scioto mile that’s the Scioto River it’s running

Through downtown Columbus Ohio that’s still my hometown and the hands-on Science Museum that Jim mentioned in his introduction is that big long elliptical cigar shaped thing on the right I had the fun of building that building on the front end of all of the planning that became this really fabulous River scape

So Brian kinswoman and Timmy Shmuel and Berger and mark Klein who I worked with a lot on the landscaping around kosai and on that kala Travis style bridge at the blacktop of the picture they’re really delighted to see that they’re being celebrated for this great piece of work it’s really made a tremendous

Difference to downtown Columbus where I usually start almost all of my talks because if you have the astronaut card you should certainly play it is is with this slide you know I’d say this is taken from much further away than space shuttles go this is taken from Noah’s

Soomi NPP satellite but you know it’s it is a pretty stunning sight and there are a couple of things that release strike you very clearly if you get to see this with your own eyes or if you study satellite images a lot one is you really

Can’t escape the reality that we live on a planet that is a system of systems and very dynamic systems very powerful systems but also very intricately linked systems if we think we can slice the systems apart and just treat one at a time we’re completely fooling ourselves so

That’s point number one dynamic and interconnected systems and I want to spend a little bit in the front of my remarks talking about some ways in which our organizations have worked over the years to help communities prepare for and respond to and think ahead about those dynamic challenges a second point

That about our planet that also comes through from this slide is how much of it is blue that planet if you look around all that is mainly blue and most of the bits that aren’t blue most of the bits that aren’t blue are white and all of those

Bits together are of course water I mean every other astronaut that returns from orbit comments that someone named the planet badly it should have been named aqua not Terra because of the importance and the presence of water everywhere around it and this is another area which I’ve been very pleased to see real

Congruity arrived at independently by APA and NOAA around the importance of water for current planning and more importantly out into the future decades for our country in every community in it and most importantly the recognition that the fact the reality we need to grab a hold of and find out how to deal

With and with respect to water is that it is a nexus between so many things water is food water is drink water is energy water is habitat it is home to many critters it is safety and security of the economy so it it’s not a thing

Unto itself that we can slice out and treat as just water it really has to be something that is integral and woven through all of our work in a very different and more systemic way than we’ve done before so that’s the topic I’d like to come to in sort of the

Second part of my remarks so a lot of our shared work up until this point in time flows from that simple reality that the earth slide highlights and that is we live on a dynamic planet not only that but living in this country we are exposed to the greatest range and

Variety and intensity of weather events of any other planet of any other country on the planet it’s a function of our geography the size of our terrain the mountains surrounded on three sides by oceans all of those factors you will find no other country on this planet that faces a comparable array of

Hurricanes tornadoes droughts floods wildfires blizzards heat waves cold snaps with the scale of populations and infrastructure exposed to them that we have in the United States that reality drives a lot of our work at NOAA and in particular our focus on trying to make sure that we’re not just studying the

Planet and not just understanding it better that’s the role of NASA or of NSF but really even very aware of and mindful of the issues and challenges and questions that planners or emergency managers are facing and what science the knowledge about the earth can be delivered in

Useful ways to them to help with that we call that environmental intelligence that timely actionable useful information derived from abundant research deep understanding of the planet and advanced analytics and modeling and oriented towards and tailored in as intelligent way as we can towards the actual needs and decision

Frameworks of folks like you and the Civic authorities that you work with and work for all the time the most obvious and best known example of this environmental intelligence is the sort of somewhat trivial one of the weather forecasts but let’s look at it through the lens of hazardous weather

Days before an approaching hurricane or major storm our teams that NOAA starts to develop the forecast information the track information the intensity information and the impact information that’s going to be pertinent to the communities in the storm’s path this is the kind of environmental intelligence that allows civic managers and emergency

Managers to figure out where do you need to pre position recovery or support assets when infrastructure or vulnerable vulnerable populations need to be protected or communities perhaps need to be evacuated that’s before the event let me just emphasize any weather forecast you get from anybody Jim Cantore on

Television or your paper or your app is a NOAA forecast there’s no satellites no instrumentation NOAA data normal models and anytime anybody says the national weather service or a watch or warning has issued that originates with our agency with NOAA so during the events during severe

Events our teams don’t sit at home on their computers hitting send buttons we deploy to the emergency operation centers and work hand in glove with partners at the federal state local levels both to make sure they’ve got the most accurate up-to-date information possible be there reach back agent and

Make sure they’ve got the best that’s there but also to make sure that we help situated and localize it in their context so there it’s a well understood and they’re making good and appropriate use of it for the conditions that they’re facing and then after the storm is past we’re

Not done yet either our ships our plains our teams mobilize again stay on scene help support the cleanup the recovery help reestablish flows of Commerce in the case of the blizzard or landfalling hurricane so we work through the whole continuum of an event trying to make sure that the right

People at the right information and the right context and ability to apply that information to the situations that they’re facing this simply reflects our recognition that the value of the work we do is not in the little teletype bulletin that we had send and send to

You a forecast itself it’s just a piece of scientific literature value lies in whether it’s really useful to you to the society to your communities how it’s used and what value it can bring and so our focus in advancing our work is less on pursuing the bleeding edge of

Scientific research and more on refining the insights that will really matter out in the field to planners and emergency managers let me give you a concrete example our hurricane forecast nowadays will give you a track forecast that runs 5 days into the future just as an aside

When I was chief scientist in the early 90s the science was only good enough for us to do that three days out science has gotten so much better in the last couple decades we now go out to day five and furthermore at day three we would have said the Hurricanes gonna be somewhere

And there beats me and now we say at day five it’s a much tighter so much great advance of scientifically and be able to tell you when and where well we could aim to take the skill level we have at day five and push it out to day seven or

Eight and if you left my scientific teams alone that’s probably what they would do let’s see how far out we can push the skill level there’s a lot of really important scientific challenge in that but FEMA director Craig Fugate what Craig really needs is a threshold of

Confidence at day four and the most valuable thing we could do for him would be to the confidence and precision of that day for forecast why is that because that day for FEMA is starting to decide which teams to deploy where to mobilize their assets start the pre positioning

Routines and he’s going to start socializing the notion of evacuations with communities that FEMA is likely to recommend evacuations to so Craig’s pivot point dominoes start to fall real dominoes start to fall businesses prepare to shut down is day four and there’s a flipside to that too because

The warning cone is now here Craig is making decisions about I’m going to not worry these communities about shutting down let those businesses continue let life go on let normalcy an economy and let all that go don’t disturb it needlessly so Dave four really matters and at NOAA you know our

Focus for our research would be to try to improve what we can get to Craig at Dave four pay attention and contribute to the day five six seven research yes but our primary focus would be advancing that threshold that Craig depends upon this is and I tell you that story

Because it illustrates our highlights one of the ways and which we have really benefited we NOAA have really benefited from and appreciated the APA partnership because it has been in a number of areas that I’ll talk about briefly being able to work with all of you some of the

Survey work you do the membership that you represent across many communities and many topic areas you’ve really been a tremendous source of understanding for us of what are these thresholds that really matter where in our environmental intelligence suite can we improve either the nature of the information we deliver

Or a better way to deliver it so that it slips more seamlessly into the work that you’re doing we like that because you’re you are in a sense force multipliers for us working with you and working through your capabilities we aim to help you spur better crafted plans that are

Crafted policies wise our land use regulations to help lessen the impacts of natural disasters the work that you’ve beginning to do to help advance more sophisticated more forward-thinking post disaster recovery planning ahead of the disasters and to help you identify and evaluate and disseminate research and best practices across the

Planning community you have capacities and those areas that we could never do so as I dug around a little they asked my team to help me learn more about what we’ve actually done together I was delighted to discover a number of really really compelling examples of some very

Solid positive work that’s been done recently for example I was pleased earlier this year to announce that APA received one of our regional coastal resilience grants in fiscal year 15 one of only six one grant for every 11 applicants it was a very highly competitive selection and you received

The award for focusing on the development of new national planning guidelines for infrastructure investments APA is view of what the what’s the essence of resilience and NOAA’s by the way lines up again quite precisely NOAA has understood from the beginning that resilience consists of a societal and economic and an ecological

Strand and just like the DNA in our bodies those strands are completely interwoven they really can’t be separated out resilience means all three and we have to be looking at and preparing and thinking about fostering all three and NOAA’s own work in resilience because of our mandates

Centers on water coasts and the ocean itself so we’re delighted to award APA this grant and look very much forward to following the research that you’re going to do on climate change Hazard Mitigation facing coastal communities and how to factor those risks those hazards those longer-term factors into infrastructure planning so

That the investments are more resilient over time in the face of changing risks most much planning and much of the insurance world looks at a current risk environment and presumes it’s going to be static into the future and lays out plans and expected costs and returns based on that assumption climate change

Tells you that assumption is breaking down the statistics are not going to stay stationary what used to be the 30-year flood may become the five-year flood what used to be the one in a hundred year prospect may become a one in ten year prospect so past is not

Prolog anymore how do we plan and prepare for tomorrow’s risk environment not just for today’s and yesterday’s risk environment is a real real challenge so that’s a really this award is a really fabulous one and it’s to pull one out of eleven and win in a competition like that is very strong

Testament to a piays expertise a proven track record of delivering and really reflects our confidence that this this project will help us all gain a deeper understanding and and disseminate good practices more broadly in the community another area where we’ve done a lot of work together is in the program that we

Call our digital coast program at no and I’ve got one of our colleagues here who’s the anchor player for Digital Coast if you’ve not met Mickey Schmidt get to know him a PA has been a partner in our digital Coast effort for six years and you’ve made a really

Significant contribution to NOAA in this regard a PA went out and solicited feedback from nearly 700 members back in 2010 about what do you need when you’re dealing with planning in coastal communities what information how does that need to fit into the planning frameworks or decision frameworks that

You were working in and that feedback really was invaluable as we put together assemble the scientific information and then tried to figure out what are the useful tools visualizations or analytical tools what is useful to you all from all this science information how do we get it off the pages of

Journals and out of the tables of numbers and turn it into something it’s actually on point for questions you are facing and usable in the work environments that you deal with so that feedback played a tremendous role in helping us design the online digital Coast tools and sharpened our

Understanding of what people like you and your colleagues need in the field and again let me give you a concrete example how do we deal with how do you all deal with the future the potential future risk of changing sea levels in different communities the APA feedback

Some sampling we did with other digital Coast partners sharpened our insights in that regard hurricane sandy rang a big bell for all of us on this issue and so we took the information you had provided and worked with our partners at FEMA and the Army Corps of Engineers to produce this

Product that you see here what we call the sea level rise viewer the controls in the upper left let you or any community pick a scenario for how much sea level rise you think will happen over an interval of time based on what risk threshold is pertinent to your

Planning constraints so these are developed off of the the well-established national climate assessment and international climate assessment ranges for what might co2 levels be in the future if they’re here here here the temperature will be here here here the like the projected likely sea level rises could be from here to

Here so this doesn’t prejudge the risk tolerance that you should bring to the equation it lets you dial that back and forth and examine what the implications are of different scenarios so that you and and your communities can make the decisions that suit you about what which

Of these risks do we really want to deal with directly which ones do we want to factor in explicitly which ones do we just kind of want a hedge you know I could get that bad how much more are we willing to influence this plan this

Development to make sure if it gets that bad we’re in a good place as opposed to in a really bad place so really a tremendous tremendous step forward and this tool again you your help in making sure we designed this in a way that was quickly usable by planning folks in

Communities of all different sizes that paid a quick dividend as well Tybee Island is a small community in Chatham County Georgia they started working with the sea-level rise you were in their community planning they knew they have just one Road connection to the mainland that’s not hard to figure

Out but the question was well how vulnerable is that you know what do we really need to be thinking about here yeah okay it could go underwater but at what threshold does it go into water something I really need to worry about now or something I don’t care too much

About and discovered that you know it would really it would only take one foot of sea level rise and that could be either because the land subsides or the sea comes up or both but at one foot that road is underwater its severed and impassable that that was an insight to

Then that that’s a threshold that really matters to their community and that factors into their future decision-making and their community resilience plan natural infrastructure is another area and a little more novel area where our collaboration has really been helpful and fruitful already and I think as much

More dividend to pay in the future we know again through talking with your membership that you are commonly asked to think about alternatives of gray or conventional built infrastructure for flood protection or coastal protection and how might that way against wetlands or dunes or natural infrastructure gray

Versus the gray vs. green question but calling the shot on that is currently sort of hampered by well the relative lack of information engineering information if you will about the protective value of marshland or dune or natural environments versus riprap and sea walls and it’s also hampered a bit

By the lack of valuation methodologies that let you put all the other factors of green infrastructure into the balance sheet green infrastructure sustains ecosystem viability helps sustain fisheries habitat it’s kind of a triple bottom line but we struggle to put a price tag on the attributes of that

Triple bottom line and so again feedback from a PA members and the bell ringing experience of Hurricane sandy we took the information we had gained from you partnered with the Army Corps of Engineers to develop a new set of infrastructure rebuilding principles and published new guidelines for calculating

The costs and benefits of providing flood protection via green infrastructure instead of gray based on a series of pilots pilot studies done in the Great Lakes regions so they’re just a couple of examples I found it you know dozens more but I won’t belabor the point all just to say we’ve really done

Some very good and valuable work together already it’s paid some real dividends and communities around the country from NOAA’s point of view it has been invaluable to us to have a partnership with a PA and have all of you and your membership and ApS leadership help us understand where we

Next can move best how we next can improve what we do shape our research or modify how we’re putting tool and product information products together to better support and serve you and the partners that you work with out in the field so let me shift now to

Water we really water came into a sharper focus for Noah about three years ago and in my capacity as a member of the inter HC narender agency white house science teams we’ve been pushing this across all of the departments and agencies at the federal level as well as

I said water is four things it’s food drink energy and home home habitat for lots of critters and water as you know from your own studies commonly throws one of one or more of four challenges at us there’s either too much or too little or it’s in the wrong place like when

Mother nature decides to move the ocean into somebody’s front yard or put a river in some of these downtown or it’s of the wrong quality that’s it’s becoming brackish where it’s supposed to be fresh or it’s gotten polluted somewhere Noah has made really important contributions to issues related to water

Science and services for four decades almost a century in fact we produced the flood watches and warnings where the assimilation point for all the USGS and streamflow gauges that put out flood watches and warnings we’re an anchor player in the National integrated drought information system the drought resilience partnership we launched a

SWAT team this year as the El Nino came in towards California to really boost our El Nino prediction capabilities focusing on trying to span the gap between the two-week range of a weather forecast and the months to years range of climate outlooks and on the East Coast we keep working with East Coast

Communities where the land is subsiding and the sea is rising to get the coastlines instrumented with enough PI gauge instrumentation that we can really help them deal with that as the situation changes but the times we’re facing now we believe call for a caliber of water intelligence that’s beyond what

Exists today and we’ve recognized that demands that we really rethink our fundamental strategies and revamp our efforts and I see as I look at the APA taskforce report on water very similar messages I’ve got to break down existing silos we’ve got our wrap our minds around new ways of understanding and

Thinking about the the planet’s natural hydrologic cycle we’ve got to move towards an integrative approach of Water Resources water availability water movement and supply water quality I’ve come to think I hold enough I can remember a time when mapping and map based services was what some exotic

Little group but in a company often corner did because it was such specialized expertise and I’m old enough I can remember when you had to take a computing job to the computing guys and it would run overnight I’m that old yeah I could hardly do as much on the

University’s mega computers I can do a my iPhone today in the geographic world we’ve seen a similar progression GIS and mapping and cartography and layering things together is what 20 super expert guys with this massive package of spiffy software that none of us understand that’s what they can do but we can’t and

Now it’s on all of our iPhones and it’s embedded in every app on our desktops water is currently what those six guys over there do and you’re doing sanitation and you’re doing dam construction and you’re doing something else I think in the decade ahead we have

To get to where water is what some understanding and some facility with water and water cycles and strain of all the uses on every drop of water is ubiquitous through the planning space just like geographic capability has become ubiquitous now happily President Obama has recognized this challenge as

Well and has commanded all of us in the federal agencies to really sharpen our focus on water to move towards more integrated data approaches and we know as it turns out we’re about it’s good to be ahead of your boss we’re about a year ahead of the president and looking at

Our own work and getting ourselves organized into an integrated NOAA water initiative and with part of this we’re moving towards integrated water data and integrated water modeling so that we can look across the nexus factors you’ve got a agricultural demand on water you can see what that’s doing to the energy

Availability of water or to the municipal availability of water or to the e.coli availability of water not just see it in each of the silos again let me give you a concrete example of one of the first things we’re going to do under this initiative as I said Noah today it

Produces the flood forecast so we’re you know we’re coming into spring flood season shortly when you start hearing about upper Missouri and Mississippi floods and projected flood levels those are NOAA forecasts from our River forecast centers today those forecasts are made for specific locations in fact for about 4,000 discreet specific

Locations which are shown by their red triangles on this map those are areas around key US Geological Survey stream gauge points so okay for thousands kind of a lot but there’s a lot of white spot space on that map and most of those triangles don’t sit right at the key

Point that a mayor or governor might care about with respect to key populations or key infrastructure we’re gonna turn it to that we’re producing a new model it’s the same water forecast points but a really enriched topographic underlying layer so that we can interpolate those 44,000 forecast points

Into 2.7 million forecast points and bring this information reliable information down to neighborhood scale we all watched the news just a couple of weeks ago with 20 inches of rain falling several days in a row in the Arkansas Louisiana area for emergency managers and city planners there that’s the set

Of forecast points they had this year and you know Shreveport is you see the the one that hugs the Louisiana Texas border the upper left that’s basically as good as you get for Shreveport and all the population around that area so that’s what we were able to provide

These emergency managers in last month’s events and that’s what we would be able to provide them once we get this new model fielded later this year so significant step forward bringing this down to neighborhood scale it’s from 70 points in Louisiana to 44,000 points it’s about a seven hundred times

Expansion in spatial density and we’ll be able to update it about 20 times more frequently so more localized more timely information in the hands of managers and planners the on another example in the water sphere and again this is a great example of where APA has worked with us

To help be sure we put the right tools together a lot of APA feedback that drove this development as the president has called for let’s get the federal act together so the citizens and planners don’t have to know the rolodex of each one is 16 different agencies to find the

Bits of information they need and put together an integrated water picture for the project they’re doing or the community they’re advising so pulling together an integrated water resource dashboard this resides within the US climate resilience toolkit and it’s becoming a focusing lens for federal water information and water data and

Water tools and I mentioned the National integrated drought information service nightís there too let’s make this easier for everyone to find what’s out there and see the meaning of the data that’s out there not just you know here’s NOAA’s bucket of data here’s usgs bucket of data so drought monitors drought

Early warning systems begin to develop some foresight think about what what the most valuable thing that we can have as humans and something the humans have never really had before about the natural environment we’re the first generation of human beings to have the ability to take the pulse of the planet

Match that with decade’s worth of deep research into how the planet’s systems work and turn it into foresight what’s the temperature going to be tomorrow how much rain am I gonna get on Thursday when is the blizzard coming 1 like hurricane hit that foresight of what’s coming that ability to think ahead and

Plan ahead and assess alternative courses of action that’s extraordinarily novel for human beings to have that capability and we’re very much the baby step stage of learning how to factor that effectively into societal decisions but that’s what we’re really about it NOAA and very much what you all are

About and I think why there’s been such good partnership so far between our organizations and why there is so much more great you ahead well a lot of the work that Noah is going to do in trying to improve our water forecast and information and galvanized the federal agencies with us

Will happen here at the National Water Center down in Tuscaloosa Alabama this is a it’s a fabulous facility I’m not you know buildings or buildings but this is a building that was designed from the outset to be multi-agency multi partner highly collaborative space I think of it

As an incubator and a testbed and an accelerator to both accelerate research and knowledge advances and to accelerate the translation of those into useful information and applications that can really help us all make better decisions around water resources in the future NOAA folks are down there currently US Geological Survey has already placed

Folks there FEMA is putting some of their team there we’re in closing near closing discussions with the Army Corps of Engineers the quasi academic partnership has students there so it’s becoming the kind of multi-sector multi partner collaboratory amol ready that we had aim for it to be we’ve got an

Initial research agenda for the center that will take us through about next year and we’re beginning a set of engagements with American Meteorological Society and communities across the country and partners like APA to define what the five-year agenda for the water center needs to be to make sure that

We’re advancing the national capacity in the wisest ways but also make sure we’re serving the societal and partner needs as best as we possibly can so I want to thank you all for the partnership that we’ve had with you so far say again how valuable it’s been to us on many many

Many fronts acknowledge that the challenges you face are really some of the challenges that motivate us in our work we really see ourselves as the place where the country’s investments in understanding this little blue planet of ours pay their real dividends because they get translated into information and

Insights and tools that can really help any of us live more wisely and live well on this planet there’s going to be more and more challenge ahead to the plan that’s not going to turn off its mischief switch anytime soon you know weather is daily and Wilkin

You two have hazards thrown at us all the way along but you all are a tremendous resource to us the insight that you provide us for our own work and I think when it comes to the water challenge APA has another interesting prospect that it can think about as well

One of the real challenges in moving to the level we need to attain in dealing with water is the fragmented nature of water data in the United States some has held federally some locally someone’s private some key things are badly measured or not monitored at all slow moisture remains hard to get at

Ground water is kind of hard to figure out still getting an inventory together knowing what the flows are is is very very difficult improving that in a dramatic way will not happen by federal Fiat yeah I think it’s really going to take grassroots and local efforts driven

By the recognition that without a more integrated picture there’s more downside in the future than upside and so I think us APA members and APA as an organization might think about the kind of role that you all complain help foster a movement from the grassroots towards the grass tops towards an open

Water data initiative an open water data platform where we all can improve the service and the insight that we can deliver to our communities in the future so I want to thank you all I’ll echo the thanks for being up at 7:30 I gather it

Was quite a party last night so I mean I’m impressed with your stamina and delighted you had the chance to talk with you today thank you we will have ample opportunity I hope for a question-and-answer session with dr. Sullivan but I want to just give you a ten minute introduction to some

Elements of this partnership to set the stage for that I’m gonna move through this fairly quickly but there’s an awful lot of information on our website for you to follow through from what I introduced to you so I want to start with something that we consider really

Vital to the core of our relationship to date has been our involvement in the digital Coast partnership which we joined in the summer of 2010 there were initially five partners and then the five partners and the millah Digital Coast staff looked around and said who’s missing from this discussion and as I

Was informed by Mickey Schmidt we rose to the top of the the list very quickly as the partner that was most missing from the discussion in terms of what Noah wanted to achieve through this digital Coast partnership and so they reached out to us we discussed the issue and immediately saw numerous

Opportunities here so I’ve got the list up there of the now eight organizations two more were added subsequently about two or three years ago the Urban Land Institute and the National estuary research reserve Association but the important thing I want to mention about the relationships here is that one of

The things we’ve learned which I think is really critical is that the ongoing work with Digital Coast do twice yearly meetings the conversations we have in between the collaboration has fostered relationships between these organizations and some of that is what I’m going to talk about because it’s really deepened our relationships with

Some of the other partners in Digital Coast as well as with NOAA itself so that’s part of what makes the digital Coast Partnership work this is the photo of the attendees of one of the biennial meetings with obviously this is a program that focuses on the coastal management

Community but really what’s important is they have this slogan we developed called more than just data meaning that the real core of the work is in the relationships with people’s communities the way in which we bring data and tools and training and resources to the communities on the coast that need those

Resources in order to do a better job of managing the challenges that go with being in coastal locations one of the things that grew out of that was that you know obviously all of you who are AICP or aspiring to become a member of the American Institute of Certified

Planners are aware that once you are a ICP speaking of the obligation one of the obligations is to maintain your education as a planner to continue to learn over the course of your career and so we have these certification maintenance requirements it became very clear that NOAA actually has a great

Deal to share that is teachable that is provided through these various venues including online webinars on-site trainings and so forth and so we worked with the digital Coast staff to ensure that NOAA not just digital coast but that NOAA as an agency as a whole became

A cm provider and so is now certified to provide credits through those trainings and I really encourage all of you to take a look at two NOAA offerings in this regard because it’s really a wealth of material that you can learn from and particularly with regard to some of

These cutting edge issues that we’re most concerned about and that you heard about from dr. Sullivan now one of the things that I want to mention also I said that there was this growth of relationships between the partners themselves and so and sometimes some cases that takes shape in the

In a form of a relationship between them in respect to a particular project that grows out of discussions one of those that we were quite proud of actually was led by the Association of State floodplain managers using a NOAA grant to develop a project called Great Lakes coastal resilience and there is online

If you go to Great Lakes resilience org a Great Lakes coastal resilience planning guide it goes in it has some case studies that are very interesting it has a variety of resources related to land use and a Great Lakes dashboard that lets you see how great fluctuations in Great Lakes levels affects the

Shoreline discussions of how development can be properly regulated with regard to those you know fluctuating shorelines and where the safe places to build may be examples of how communities have approached that problem there’s a real wealth of resources there and so just as an example some communities dealing with you know eroding bluffs

Along the lakefront where maybe you know the solution is more one of maintaining some open space in those areas than allowing someone to have a beautiful but risky view along the shoreline and believe me most of the planners in the Great Lakes area know very well the

Pressure to build in those risky places when people don’t understand what is at stake other digital coasts byproducts recently we got busy working on a new product new project with the with the consulting firm aecom which is actually in the lead to handle a large project

That was actually funded by HUD but with supervision by NOAA so HUD funneled the money to NOAA to handle the actual contracting launched just last fall but specifically including three of the APA at the digital coast partners APA nako National Association of counties and ASF p.m. to work with AECOM but I

Want to stress one thing that this is a case of really building on you know past work and tying things together the model for this was actually a previous piece of work by APA that was done for FEMA on the integration of Hazard Mitigation throughout all elements of the local

Planning process known to many people as pas report 560 issued back about six years ago that has become a model for a great deal of FEMA guidance since then having to do with how you do to achieve that integration of Hazard Mitigation priorities into comp plans implementation tools for comprehensive

Plans capital improvements programs and the like and so now we’ve got three two other partners plus ourselves involved in a project that is actually going to try to ground truth some of the concepts that were laid out in that particular report we’re in the process right now of

Selecting a couple of pilots along with a comes leadership on the front on that front and moving forward with this project and then developing you know even deeper guidance for communities on this very important project I like to keep using this little icon from the cover of the PAS report because that

Image of a lighthouse guiding people to safety I think was actually one of the best cover illustration choices I ever made I was very proud of pic finding that thing yes it you know like a few layers of meaning underneath these things you know one of the other things

That we did that didn’t come up yet but I think is very important NOAA has extended an existing fellowship program for coastal management to include the digital Coast partners and so for two years we had a NOAA funded coastal fellow at the digital Coast fellow working with us and the result

Has been a report that you can find upstairs it is in the exhibit hall with the APA publications a new pas report on coastal zone management and so this was originally organized back in 2012 the report was just recently completed this year and certainly provides some useful guidance to communities on that subject

I also wanted to quickly highlight our relationship to water issues I know that you’re going to be meeting with our water working group shortly after this session but we’ve also done some work on the lack of water we’re not enough issue in the form of a pas report on planning and drought this

Is basically a SARP grant working with nidus and in the National drought mitigation center to produce this pas report which was issued about two years ago and I was personally involved with a number of outreach efforts following from that doing webinars for both nidus and the climate program office at NOAA

And I’m happy to say APA membership responding to these issues allowed me to set a record for the climate program office with the best webinar attendance they have seen to date so you guys are on top of things and we maintain our connection with this issue and with nidus through something called engaging

Preparedness communities and in fact later this month April 28th and 29th that will be out in Lincoln to participate in the next meeting on that front so we continue our commitment on the drought issue as well we’ve obviously got a broader interest in water than just route obviously APA was you know has

Been involved on several levels we are involved in a water and planning group with the climate program office we did in fact have a role in vetting elements is that Water Resources dashboard participated in that project and I think it I really encourage all of you to take

A look at the water resources dashboard there’s a lot of really rich information there but it’s also allowed us to develop some relationships with some of the water utility organizations of which there are several and they’re all listed on the water resources dashboard as participants in this project in the

Meantime we’d also set up our own water task force through the APA board of directors you can see their report but you know go following that link that has evolved into a water working group and we’re very interested now and this is the focus of you know the meeting is to

Discuss the relationship between that and Noah’s water initiative so we’re going to explore some more of opportunities there and then finally I want to mention dr. Sullivan mentioned this but we’re really happy with this new Noah funded project where we are really going to be working with communities on how to integrate

Information related to resilience and climate change into the local capital improvements planning process a lot of people populated sessions so we did last year in Seattle on subjects related to climate change but this one was one we we worked with ASF p.m. they are actually going to be the lead partner on

This but we are the major partner with AAAS fpm on this project but we really zeroed in on this question because this is the issue where your communities spend millions if not billions of dollars depending on the size of your community but certainly billions and tens of billions of dollars annually

Nationally on capital improvements in communities and things like roads and bridges and public facilities and levees and whatever it is that you know long-term public investments and if we don’t get it right with regard to understanding the impact of climate change on those investments and how to

Invest wisely in the standards that we set to make those investments climate resilient we could be wasting a lot of public money and so it’s important that we really set the tone with this and create a model that is usable for communities and that information will be

Up on our website very shortly we’re just at the beginning we just started with that and it just worked out the subcontract with ASF p.m. so watch in coming weeks and months as we build out the information there the important thing is this is going to be a ground

Truthing project where we’re working with regional partners in Savannah Georgia the city and the county and the Savannah Chatham County MPO as well as the city and county in Toledo Ohio one Atlantic Coast community one Great Lakes community to really begin to learn how well we can apply these principles and

Ideas what works what doesn’t work and then create models that we can share with other communities and one of the projects one of the products of this project will be a pas report so with that I will sit down and shut up allow dr. Sullivan to come back up and take questions

Yeah I will find out who’s we have any questions in the room I know there’s some online yeah the way we should and if for my benefit if you’d give me a name and your affiliation that’d be helpful it’s a great question and we’ve come to realize from another number of drivers

How important that is across the spectrum that’s not the only factor humans are pattern-making critters right so the easiest information to accept there’s a natural bias towards accepting something that fits into patterns that we already know that we’re already comfortable with so really looking at the social science aspects of how

Risk-based communications are received and how they vary how that response varies through time so for us for us it’s a factor on things that are very acute like tornado warnings as well and there it’s it’s corroboration by a trusted source it often is important so people will

Think here a tornado warning they’ll run outside to look not what we had in mind but the god it’s like to look and see if this information really looks like it’s happening to me or they’ll nowadays text around their their circle of friends or family and see is anyone else suggesting that this

Is really something I need to act on it on the short-term it seems to be a bit about breaking out of social convention I mean if the tornado warning hit right here or some other big alert we’d all look at each other for a moment trying

To decide if I’m gonna be the first person that bolts out the room am i that scared and what’s the you know I’m suppose it’s a false alarm then I look like an idiot suppose it’s real and I don’t get out fast enough but that’s all going quickly through our minds and and

Tempers how we react and on longer time frames it tends to play into how how we’re imagining safety and security into the future and does this challenge that notion or how we’re imagining comfort or how we’re imagining our lifestyle or how our business works it you know human human beings are tough challenging

Intricate critters so there’s not a simple answer there’s not a push-button answer I think it bought to me it boils down to the confidence reliability of the source it boils down to this will be relationship based you you respond differently to people you’ve been able to develop some knowledge of and some

Trust with we learned in the tornado and severe weather event this was the difference between a forecaster camp to stay at the desk and push send on a forecast and expectable of course people will react you have to have built those relationships in advance you have to have invested in the the social

Connection in advance because that’s part of the value equation and the trust equation that conditions the response it that’s that will be an ongoing there’s not a solution to this that you then just implement this is the sociology of it all just it’s always going to depend on their social and conversational

Response in maintenance I can’t see any of you by the way so to come up to the mic and tap the mic if you got a question you’re not careful I’ll open up and say that space questions are allowed then there’ll be questions well thank you for the compliment again

They’re not a simple answer other than keep talking with partners and keep bringing that insight back to our teams I’m fond of thinking of Noah as occupying a niche that’s akin to where not sits in a bowtie and there’s sort of all the world of science and sort of

Bleeding edge research and development of new knowledge over here and we see ourselves as a science-based services agency and then there’s there’s needs like the ones you just said Val and and sometimes more sophisticated organisations you know the Chicago Mercantile Exchange has a different decision-making framework and set of

Capacities and needs then local community or state level of government so there’s needs out here let’s call them the clinical needs where people need new information they would value new information that would help them make better decisions or have higher confidence nois it’s were than not in

The bowtie is and our challenge and and our opportunity is as a science-based organization to be maintained rich awareness and conversin see with all of the latest advances in science some of them we fund some of them we do in our labs many others are funded by other outfits from National Science Foundation

And and even NIH or CDC on public health issues to NASA or for other governments so watch all of that and stay conversant with that because that’s the ground we can harvest from and over here what are the what are the questions you guys are you guys deal with questions that you

Don’t look up answers to you deal with questions you have to build answers to so what are the building blocks of those answers and oftentimes what you find very very commonly you alluded to it is the scientist has this much description and information in detail and masses of

Data no alone produces 20 terabytes of data a day one of my DHS partners and two separate people entirely the same sentence a reinsurance company senior executive and a DHS partner looked at me once we were talking about this big data project that we’re doing to try to get

That data out the door so others can use it they’ve look at me at different times and said I don’t want your damn 20 terabytes of data don’t be sending me 20 terabytes of data I don’t want to become a Stewart data storage guy I don’t want to become some

Big data analytics geek I want you or someone to understand what I’m dealing with well enough to find the 50 little packet of information of data within that that can be turned into information that I can use so I want you to deliver me the little dollop of useful data

Packetized to slip right into things I’m doing that’s that’s the ideal interface I’m looking for so how do you craft that in digital coast in the water dashboard we’ve tried we know I have tried to take significant steps to crafting that by working with and learning from partners

Like you all and the folks that Jim listed and we commonly find again we have this much scientific information in these many measurements in this much data and your decisions actually operating at a different level you need a different cut of it or a smaller dose

Of it or a different synthesis of it and you need it as you need it parametrically or you need it as an index you don’t need all that is that a versus B is it in this range or this range or this range because it’s sort of

Racket eyes in terms of factoring into the rest of your decision so that’s what we try to get in and understand that’s that’s the decision-making framework that’s active here we want to be able to appropriately meld and process our information so that you’re getting what you’re getting packetized is wisely and

Well packetized you’re not losing or biasing or polluting the science in the packaging and sometimes it goes a little bit the other way and we help you realize you know your three packets are causing you to miss some factors that you really now that I understand what

You’re really trying to do three packets is causing you to miss something that’s important if we make it four or if we packet eyes a little differently you’ll be able to tease that other variable out and so it goes back and forth I don’t know any way other than mutual learning

To keep doing that certain planning challenges that if they have stable enough parameters over time you can turn those into heuristics and make it more routine and maybe even automate it but you know the questions facing communities the ances the other values that come into play in the worlds that you’re working

In those all evolve over time and that’s the ongoing civic conversation of the life of a community so I don’t know how really automated forever this can become I think in the end this is this is human beings trying to figure out how to live on the planet I think it’s always gonna

Have a social and political and conversational dimension there is someone at microphone we brought people there so those dense urban areas are very threatened in the future and I’m not definitely not seeing as many examples and attempts to solve the problems of dense urban areas we want to survive and flourish in the

Future understanding the natural issues so where are you seeing the most interesting work done and are you or your groups of agencies able to start funding more pilot projects to kind of test these ideas we’re lacking in precedents and good examples for our decision-makers and funders and so what

Can you tell us about where to look for those most interesting areas and can we get started with it without doing the 20 billion dollar project and do some of these smaller ones record them and actually build things yeah both great questions and I’m I’m not I don’t claim

To be fully conversant with the full range of research in this area but I would say it’s almost interesting work that I’ve seen around the dense urban areas arose in the wake of Hurricane sandy and it was the the rebuild by design competitions which you did include bringing in notions asking the

Question about what different mix is there some additional mix of natural and built that would make the sustainability of dense urban areas more affordable and more sustainable and and or more ecologically resilient over time or do we just double up sea walls and raise the heights of dikes and levees so

There was at least some fresh thinking there about dimensions that had you not historically been thought about much in those areas and again you know Hoboken is sort of the classic case we’ve done a fair amount of work with Don Zimmer of the mayor of Hoboken and I was I’ve been

Fascinated about how that translated into rethinking some aspects of the on-the-ground design of that really distinct discrete small little dense fabulous community how to turn you know parking lots which they need for the work flow of the community but you know make them permeable porous systems so

The parking lot is a deck on top of a cistern and you’ve got a delay factor that you can build into flood flows they just it’s been that’s been some fascinating stuff but how widely spread in other dense urban areas along our coast I actually don’t have any good

Data they’ve had the problem actually being threatened and people are willing to do something there was the funding that came exactly in other communities that hear about it read about it but don’t feel that economically or physically so I do know you know in the wake of Sandy the president established

A across the government across the federal government hurricane sandy rebuilding task force then Secretary of HUD Shaun Donovan who’s now the head of the Office of Management budget led that of course he came out of Housing and Development in the New York area it was interesting is it was as

Interesting watching Shaun Donovan’s philosophical and learning evolution through the sandy Cass course as watching the rest of the work itself that was done he’s clearly carried some of that lesson over to OMB and we talked about these factors that you were raising we talked

About how do we how do we set grant and building program terms and conditions now so that they better anticipate the future and how can we do some of the pilot work or small-scale work that will give us the building blocks of insight that you need when bigger projects come

Along but that work would flow more through FEMA and HUD and some of the larger granting agencies then through NOAA and I’ve not been able to crack that closely maybe we need a digital scrapbook yeah constantly added for the full report to get done but just write someplace to find all the other

Opportunity that I think exists is the you know the these stepping into this arena of how it fits like Bloomberg and the Rockefeller Foundation through initiatives like the hundred resilient cities which are trying to get down to different cities globally with different sets of problems and bring the common

Set of resilience principles but aid and help those communities of putting them into practice on the ground at different scales and in very different environments yes you could see them better than like yeah we’re actually yet at the time limit at this point for this particular session so we are gonna have

To get it off and then let the the nine o’clock poker come in

ID: ZdKZ_5Al3WQ
Time: 1462310658
Date: 2016-05-04 01:54:18
Duration: 01:10:07

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