Title: روندهای بین المللی، تاثیرات داخلی | انجمن دانیل برنهام در مورد ایده های بزرگ

«روندهای بین‌المللی، تأثیرات داخلی» دومین سخنرانی دانیل برنهام درباره ایده‌های بزرگ است که توسط Eugenie L. Birch، FAICP، در موزه ملی ساختمان در واشنگتن، دی سی، در سپتامبر ۲۰۱۲ ارائه شد. برچ، استاد لارنس سی. نوسدورف در تحقیقات شهری و آموزش و پرورش، و رئیس گروه دانشگاه پنسیلون در شهر گرانیدو است.

قسمتي از متن فيلم: Good evening everyone good evening and welcome to the National gold museum great to see such a packed crowd my name is Scott Kratz I’m the vice president for education here at the National Building Museum the and it’s my pleasure to welcome you to this evening’s presentation for those of you who might

Not know the National Building Museum advances the quality of the built environment by educating people about its impact on their lives we do this through innovative exhibitions through youth outreach programs and events such as this evenings something that sets us apart from other institutions is our interdisciplinary approach to the built

Environment and the profession of planning is a critical element how the museum fulfills its mission we feature planners in lectures panel discussions and on advisory committees as we plan programming and exhibitions we are especially proud to present tonight’s program with our long-term partner of the American Planning Association the

Museum is partnered with APA in many ways over the years they are Corinthian members of the museum have been a supporter of our exhibition and programs including serving as the presenting sponsor of our exhibition grain community that explored the past present and future of sustainable towns and cities we also the long-standing

Collaborative effort programming series with APA called the L’Enfant lecture on city planning and design that draws attention to critical issues in city and regional planning in the United States over the years we featured leading figures in planning architecture urban design governance and other peels we look forward to our next collaborative

Program in early 2013 now with that I’m delighted to present Mitchell suit silver aicp a good friend of the National Building Museum Mitchell is president of the American Planning Association and the chief planning and economic development officer for Raleigh North Carolina ladies and gentlemen please welcome Mitchell silver

Good evening and thank you Scott for that kind introduction I know he’s not here but also like to thank chase rent and the National Building Museum for their continued partnership and hospitality in hosting tonight’s Daniel Burnham forum on Big Ideas lecture APA and the building museum have worked

Together for more than a decade on presenting and hosting thought-provoking lectures exhibits that explore the role and impact of planning tonight’s lecture is no different we are honored to have Jeannie birch f aicp who happens to be my mentor as a featured speaker for our second Daniel Burnham forum on Big Ideas

APA launched the Daniel Burnham forum this past July to examine the ideas issues and challenges that are facing America’s communities now and in the future addressing these issues require new heights of creativity energy and innovation is important to have these conversations to help lead America’s communities toward a more just and

Sustainable future to facilitate this conversation the forum will include a series of lectures that link that will occur around the country ladies and gentlemen I now introduce bowl farmer who will introduce you Jeannie burger thank you much Mitch and I realized that I’m a wedged between a proud student and

A proud faculty member so congratulations to both of you but tonight we are really honored to have a respected leader of the planning profession who will share her thoughts with us on how international trends will affect domestic decisions today and in the coming decades there’ll be some time

At the end of Jeannie’s taught for questions and I hope that everyone will stay after that or reception here at museum our featured speaker is the Lawrence see no store professor of urban research and education at the University of Pennsylvania chair of the graduate group and City Planning at Penn and

Founding co-director of the pan Institute for Urban Research Jeannie’s accomplishments are so numerous that I’ll just mention a few she’s a fellow of the American Institute of Certified planners an honorary member of the royal town planning institute and currently serves as president of the International planning history society and associate

Editor of jabba the journal of the american planning association which is the world’s leading peer-reviewed journal on planning development and policy and i would like to add that in a previous sign jeannie served as the editor of Joppa and served with great distinction Thank You Jeanne your work

Still is used I’m sure in classrooms around the world and last year she was a co-convenor of the changing cities linking global knowledge to local action three days seminar in Hawaii that included urban experts and scholars from across Asia and the United States she’s published widely in planning history and

Contemporary urban revitalization and served as a co-editor of several publications including women’s health on the world cities global urbanization and growing greener cities urban sustainability in the 21st century Genie has been a visiting scholar a professor at Queen’s University university of hong kong and other universities she currently serves as

Co-chair of the United Nations World urban campaign and had the privilege of being with Jeannie just a couple of nights ago in this week of the opening of the UN’s activities where she presented two series of New Yorkers the focus of the world urban campaign and human habitats world urban forum that

Many just recently attended so with that impressive but actually very abbreviated biography I’d like to turn the podium over to dr. eugenie perch thank you very much Mitch and Paul it’s a real pleasure to be here I think this forum has taken on a tradition and that tradition is not

Only to have some interesting speakers hopefully but also to be in beautiful places the first form as you can see from this image was in Chicago and if beautiful adaptively reused facility and it provided a beautiful environment for the kickoff of this particular activity and here you see the three speakers the

President of the asla the president of the AIA and our very own mid silver the president of the APA now when they spoke they each had a message in the each other message to my I have to sort of translate and try to find what the common themes were because

I think we want to take some of these common themes explore them and see where we have some residents among different professionals and residents for ourselves so when the president of the asla spoke each speaker was asked to mention what he or she thought were the critical issues with critical problems

That we need to confront in the next 50 years you can see her list here it was the economy demography social change public health urban planning and land use that was very nice to see that she recognized that and transportation when we moved on to the president the AIA he

Started off the digital revolution technology and how that’s changed things urbanization climate change water and the monetization or the privatization I think he really meant of the public realm and then it was Mitch and Mitch came up with his list which was regionalism how can we think about metropolitan areas not just cities

Demography of course what’s happening with population in the United States in terms of its composition in terms of its location the public health issues that were confronting particularly things like obesity water water water water seems to be everywhere climate change and he had a new twist at the end zone e

And land management now each one of them had some pity things to say in terms of how we would solve or address these problems landscaper said of course we’re going to do sustainable sites and the architects that what we’re going to do low impact development and we said inclusive compact development all right

So we each have our cut on this the landscape architects is really important to educate people and the architects think we need to have a shared common vision I don’t think disagree with that and again Mitch very practical said wait a minute we have to show the value of long-range planning

After all no one’s going to listen to us unless we do that and finally they left us with some warnings we must be vigilant we must control the conversation and again Mitch told us don’t get too comfortable because things are changing so that led me to think

About what we would do with this talk this big ideas talk it was a very challenging thing after those three phenomenal speakers I want to bring to your attention that this is our time this is our time as city and regional planners it’s our time because we finally been discovered not that we’ve

Been discovered but that our interests of the area that we’re working on has been discovered every run from The Economist’s and other journalists to international lending organizations like the World Bank that never spoke about cities in the past now are talking about cities foreign policy magazine this fog

Dedicated this whole fall issue to this topic un huh betta is coming up new ways of looking at city’s no longer they a problem they say they’re the key to prosperity and we have scholars we have a glacier who is there talking about the triumph of the city this is our time

It’s our time and what are we going to do with it that’s the real question well first of all if we want to be part of the conversation and if we’re going to be vigilant and if we’re not going to get too comfortable one of the first

Things we need to do is look around take our heads out of the sand because we have spent it off a long time with our heads in the sand hi much as anybody and not thinking not really conjugate consciously taking a look at what’s happening in the rest of the

World in terms of urbanization all these other folks are doing it in the press and so forth what are we doing to think about that and so we of course are very familiar with your population growth what’s happening the economy but there are three big problems I think that

We’re going to see resonating in the world that are going to have huge impact on our world and whether we’re going to be able to do those sustainable sites those low impact communities and inclusive local compact cities we have to know a little bit more about what’s

Happening the world and happening in our nation in order to become in alignment I think if you look at this chart you’ll see that there’s a theme here the thing of course is growth the other theme is technology if every time there’s a technological change something occurs it

Allows for the population to grow and if you look at the very tail end of this chart right when we start getting water mills and wind and go right up to oil gas and electricity you can see in terms of population what happens with explodes thousand years ago wow look what

Happened we go from a few million people millions a million people to seven million people in a pretty pretty relatively short time and that’s something for us to think about basically when we think about urbanization of thinking about world population growth which is the pace and trajectory with which it is happening it

Is really key to understand that now why it happened in the past of course was that these pieces of technology allowed for the control of water allowed for the harnessing of energy that provided the food surpluses that created the healthy communities that allowed this kind of

Growth and as we move forward now into the twentieth and twenty-first century this is the city the century of the city the century of the city does that mean that means that we are going to become I’ve already become fifty percent urban but then the next

Couple of decades we’re going to go over the top two-thirds to seventy percent urban in the world now that’s not a big deal for us here in the United States because we’re already there for about eighty percent urban but it is a big deal in Asia and Africa and it’s a very

Big deal because again of the trajectory and the pace of what’s happening it took us 10,000 years to get the first billion urban people it took us 40 years to get the last billion people who is living in cities it will probably take 18 to 20 years to get the next billion imagine

That imagine that trajectory imagine what that means in terms of having to accommodate numbers of people to feed them to shelter them to make sure that they are secure in their communities and where is it going to happen it’s going to happen in two places we’re going to

Yet if all the projections are correct something like 2.6 billion more people to point in cities 2.3 billion of them will be in Africa and Asia Africa and Asia that’s where the action is going to occur there is a linkage here when you look at these sizes of these urban

Populations there’s a linkage between the size of the urban population and the actual or growing level of economic prosperity and that is the message that all the popular writers the international bankers the NGOs are seeing and that’s why they are there now where is the storm is going to happen we

Said Africa and Asia everybody thinks it’s going to happen in the mega cities and here’s the list the current list of the mega cities and down in the lower left-hand corner you can see what vegan at mega city might mean it here in Jakarta trying to get home for dinner

There’s the traffic there only 23 of them they’re only 23 of them and they only hold today about ten percent of the world’s urban population and in fact half of the world’s population lives in places under half a million under half a million the other lives in places over

Half a million but about two thirds of them live in the ninety-four percent of cities that are somewhere between a half a million and 5 million all right so the majority of urban people are living in relatively I’m saying relatively because we’re talking about the sale of cities

That we’re talking about if they’re not that small but they’re relatively small compared to the mega region and as you can see in the map in the upper corner the location and sizes and the percent urban of various places of the world today that map will change here and I’ll

Give you a sneak peek but they think will be the mega mega cities even though they’ll be only about 40 of them may be 39 I think what’s it say 37 their 37 but there will be over a thousand possibly 1500 cities that will be in this other

Category that we’re talking about have you ever been to a room she China do you know where room tree is who knows where it is it’s in the jinjiang area so it’s where they had some ethnic issues last fall and basically that’s the time out there 1600 miles from beijing 2.3 million

People are living there you never heard of it right how about how ashamed taiwan I’m sure you’ve heard of cow Shane right now to look at 2.3 million people living on the tip of Taiwan and it’s a 214 miles from Taipei I was there last year

I took the high speed rail took an hour and a half to get there zooming through Taiwan connecting a major port it’s a major port in Asia with the capital and mainland China eventually so there are lots of places like this lots of places and it’s time to take our geography

Books out and learn about them because they’re going to affect us they’re going to affect us because their economies are growing and as their economies are growing their demand for things and things that we have taken for granted is growing everything from consumer goods when we think about the gross domestic

Product and what is composed of there’s a list on the side there you can see everything from personal consumption expenditures your your car your food your home your bank fact that you import or export things and what our government is spending both on defense and non-defense activities when we looked at

Our economy we can see that there’s a big hole right here because we’re doing a lot of importing both of particular kinds of goods consumer goods but also those things that supply our economy energy products and we’ll be talking about that later we’re still dominant we’re still the largest

Economy in the world our growth last quarter was one-point-three percent or unemployment as eight percent we’re not happy with those numbers because we’re used to higher numbers on the growth side and lower numbers on the employment side China is suffering to a little bit they had ten percent growth last year

None point something and nine to seven point six it is six point five percent unemployment rate so they’re suffering too but they are working hard to catch up with us as are many of these other countries and as these countries become more populous more urban tastes change

Consumer demand will rise and it will rise according to one’s ability to pay obviously and there are huge issues in the world with regard to the separation of the ability of people to pay the income divided that we know around the world and here are just some indicators

Of this this lady here would like water this lady here would like a decent home this lady here and she lives here this lady here wants education for children she wants clothes she wants a big a bigger apartment or something like that she’s eating more meat and dairy and

More protein and so is she probably so we see pressures on food will see pressures on production these people are living out here the distance from the city because it’s safer or it’s cheaper or whatever reason they have live there they have to get to where they want to

Be there buying cars they’re going to put pressure on the global energy peace these people will also put pressures on different parts of the economies for the production of goods and services now we commonly measured all of this in the GDP looking at the gross domestic project I

Just want to bring to your attention that you and habitat is just published its say world cities which it does every year and up to this year it’s always been sort of a negative look at cities this year they turned around and said no we’re going to measure city for that

Prosperity but we’re not just going to look at prosperity in terms of economic product we’re going to be looking at quality of life factors equity factors and so forth in other words what they’re trying to do is give the economist’s a new way of judging and creating indices

For how to judge how successful of places now this has been a large conversation The Economist has been having episodes the sequence commission of a few years ago that was put into into place by the French president of the time who was very disgusted by what happened with the financial crisis and

Said hey you economist you better tell us you know what’s really happening and now the economist are thinking about different ways of measuring prosperity and you and happy time being the center of human settlements is working on an index to do that it’s presumably quite controversial you might want to take a

Look at it you can go to the website but not only do we have these issues with regard to population growth expanding population economies but we also have global conditions that we need to pay attention to clearly the question of water I’m not going to deal too much

With that the APA has an enormous initiative on this with regard to flooding and other activities but I think we can deepen our interests in that area and we can also deepen our interests in the food security question again I’m not going to deal with that a

Tremendous amount but just give you one little factoid which is to feed the growing population that we expect to see we’re going to have to produce more food than we produced for 5,000 years so just to give you a sense of scale of what we’re dealing with we need as planned

So begin to think about the scale of the issues that are affecting the world that are going to of course affect our world here in the United States and we of course are experts in land and I just put this here to give you a sense that

Land is not really a problem from the point of view of not having enough land to accommodate people it’s having the right kinds of land and it’s protecting that land and it’s stewarding that land so it can do the things that it needs to do to create the communities of lasting

Value and that’s where we definitely get in and we need to think about land not just on its surface as we so frequently do but we need to think about it as in its debts and what happens throughout so that brings me to the issue of energy

Energy I think is one of the most important elements of the world considerations today because without a reliable and safe source of energy we do not have a healthy economy we do not have a healthy environment and we do not have a healthy social compact so I think

We as planners really need to be thinking a lot more about energy certainly wasn’t in my education I’m afraid it wasn’t in niches I don’t know how many of you have really looked at energy in terms of their comes from one of the sources beyond the Renewable we’re all very active about thinking

About renewable but what can we really know about this what the effects of energy are on density and design so forth we haven’t grabbed this as a subject s planners and so what I wanted to do tonight is to talk a lot about energy world energy and then energy in the

United States so that we can begin to think about how we can know our skills as planners to be in the conversation about energy if we’re going to show our value as planners if we’re going to be controlling the conversation and we have to be vigilant that we have to know a

Little bit about this particular issue so we’re good at this we’re good at buildings we’re good at systems we can talk about all of those things so that’s city planning 101 and that’s what we need to show the people we’re dealing with energy but what do we know about

This what do we know about power you know a fair amount of a transport but this particular side I don’t think we’re as strong and as we might be and all of these things have implications for social mediums and what links them together is their role in land so why

Are we concerned about energy we’re concerned about it clearly if we’ve heard all of our politicians talk about because of energy security we use something like 19 plus million barrels of oil a day in the United States 19 million and of those we import over 8 million all right so when they’re

Talking about energy security they’re talking about that in some degree so for us we’re very concerned about having enough energy because that will support our economy and the lifestyle to which we become accustomed in other parts of the world they are concerned about equity they are concerned about

Having first of all mothers put their dinner not over a coal stove but over some sort of energy that’s not going to give her a lung disease they are concerned about making sure that everybody has energy and they’re not just tapping into it in this particular

Manner as the billion people who live in informal settlements in the global south are and they’re concerned as 600 million people in india this summer were concerned with being able to get on the train at night or turn on the lights at night I know if you noticed in July what

Happened with that colossal failure of energy big problems there and the third reason obviously that we’re concerned about is because of of the morning and the fact that the energy we use the energy products are creating a situation that is going to contribute to global

Warming and we can see in terms of who is contributing to that in terms of percentages where we are on this particular scale and where the rest of the world is on this particular staff and don’t forget linking back to what’s going to happen in the future in terms

Of population growth Asia and Africa or going to become much more active in the use of energy so where does the world get its energy from the whole use of energies and numbers that you can’t even explain here but basically coal is a big number oil is a big number natural gas

Is a big number nucular is and was a big number but it’s going to shrink because if what happened in well it’s going to shrink in Japan is growing in China hydro is a renewable and all the other renewables that we’re talking about with geothermal solar or

You all right so when we’re giving our attention to energy as planners where do you think we ought to be getting our attention tell me renewables make sense well what do you think what do you think nobody thinks anything there’s a lot of fossil fuel up there

And how are we going to manage this fossil fuel in a way that is not going to contribute to the problems we just talked about before I love renewables but in my lifetime I don’t think I don’t know I’m stronger real it but I don’t think renewables are going to get to

This proportion of this proportion of this proportion that’s what we’re up against that’s what we got to be thinking about where you can’t bc i mean we of course you can support the renewable activity of course we can of course is city planners in our own communities for passing laws to

Accommodate and so forth and we’re supportive of it but when push comes to shove we are vastly reliant on these sources of energy and we need to be thinking very hard about how we can contribute to a better usage or perhaps reduction or a different proportion among these particular elements and here

We are in terms of just this wonderful graphic showing GBP of the world the relationship between GDP and energy consumption if you’re a fat country in terms of having a 15 Cillian economy or 7.2 billion economy you’re a fat country in terms of any energy product

Use and by type its electricity it’s oil okay electricity and oil electricity oil what kind of uses take a look our residential services are here transporters here industry is here and as we go forward according to the scenario builders these proportions aren’t changing tremendously but the question we should be asking is where

Can we insert ourselves to figure out how to affect what these graphs are showing us because all these graphs are our models have been built by the analysts we’re thinking about how we’re using it now and how we probably will use it in the future transport oil there

It is no surprise right all of us want to get our elected vehicles well they’re down there somewhere we’re right up there okay by 2030 what’s going to happen to car ownership well here we are up here actually I love everybody saw the article The Wall Street Journal last

Week no known econ amidst it was about the peak driving arguing that the Western countries are probably reach their peak and driving the next generation the younger generation is getting their licenses later they’re driving west and living closer to places so they’re not driving as much but it’s

Down here in the developing world of course where we’re going to see major changes so what does this mean for cities and energy let’s just go quickly through this all right population + GD g level of urbanization equals the amount of energy we do so let’s look at the various factors and

Let’s look where we are on this slide okay remember I told you 19 million barrels a day our share is 21% of that in the world and a little less than half of that is imported what does it go to gasoline jet feel diesel and other products having to do with the

Petrochemical industry and with the agricultural industry kool word world consumption of coal all these all these energy pieces come in all different kinds of denominations but you saw the chart before you know how much consuming of what so this amount of coal world our share seventeen percent gas I’m going to

۳۰ trillion cubic feet we use about fifty percent of it renewables sixteen percent of the world energy is in renewables and I couldn’t figure out exactly how much is that only eight percent of our energy comes from from from then there’s another piece of the energy picture that we don’t look at a

Whole lot and that’s water we know we need water for agriculture and in fact most people’s think agriculture in the United States is the greatest use of water well it’s not it’s not it’s a production of electricity half the water that we take from our rivers lakes and

Sea Shores goes to the production of electricity the cooling the sea cetera to refine a barrel of oil remember how many were using every day 19 million plus we use that many gallons of water and therefore this amount of water daily just to be our needs so when we talk about water we

Need to talk about it within the concept of thinking about its relationship not only to our bath and a shower and our drinking and our cleaning but into our very way of life and the energy that we depend on for economy and for our very living so there’s things that we need to

Think about in terms of how we live in wet and I’m just going to quickly go through some of these elements in terms of the energy piece I don’t know if you saw the article that should too two-part article about data farms that’s your computer my computer and the internet

And the fact we think we’re saving the world by having all this work that we’re doing at home and how official we are with their with our use of digital activities Oh guess what worldwide 30 billion watts of electricity including our 30 nuclear plants is what it takes

To run the internet system that goes around the world and where does that electricity get made up what’s it made up for this cold is the basic energy than natural gas then root and then smart grid is something with thinking about but again big energy consumer production of electricity itself and of

Course food we know we’re going to comment people and we know that there’s gonna be a lot of construction we’ve all read Chris Nelson’s work about how much of our own construction will occur but think about what we talked about with the population growth and joel coen who is a demographer at Rockefeller

University estimates but basically we’ll have to build the equivalent of a city of a million every week the next 40 years to accommodate this population think of what that means for energy in terms of what we’re going to have to produce to do that transportation plans we think

About alternative modes but we don’t do we know where this energy or the work comes from to support this energy and so if we’re talking about bus rapid yeah sorry about that bus rapid transit we’re talking about automobiles obviously we’re talking about all different ways to consolidate and to become more energy

Efficient in our in our transport but we really haven’t done the metrics on what this energy means and that’s something we can do there are a lot of innovations occurring in the United States and around the world with regard to trying to find new sources of energy and energy efficiencies big big efforts

Particularly in here in the United States of just point 23 in Washington DC there’s a week the big waste energy plant that’s being built new york city has just passed this benchmarking law and also is now requiring all buildings to change its fuel from the highly polluting number 62 the less polluting

Number four or even natural gas and partner of energy is supporting an enormous energy efficiency project in the Philadelphia Naval Yard not sure you can think of many things that are going in this area and then the transport area of course are trying lots of lots of experiments

Should to deal with the transporter activity you like that so how do we get innovation what does it take to get this invasion again this is where we need to be smart and understand how the world works with regard to that and this is just illustrating the steps that it

Takes going from government intervention and sentiments to bringing it to the market and making it happen but we know basically in order to accommodate populations that we’re talking about this is the kind of investment we the world wide to accommodate those new people those cities and it needs to be

In power needs to be natural gases to be in oil and all of these areas if we’re going to enable them to have the healthy economies and healthy lives in effect and this is where we are unremovable in renewable energy wish it were more but that’s where we are all right so what’s

The domestic impact of all of this what’s going to happen to us let’s go through some of the same activities that we talked about earlier population the economy and the issues of security I hope you love this map because this was done by Paul farmer’s daughter when she

Was a graduate student and getting her master’s of urban planning and at that time she was working with a study group a studio group which was trying to anticipate what would happen to population growth in the United States in the next 50 years because unlike Europe unlike other places in the world

We are growing and we expect to grow and we expect to grow in these particular places these may regents and it’s megan region thinking i think that sort of helped us an eighth enable us to think more clearly about how we ought to be attacking some of

These major issues now one of our issues just the economy you know what this is whoops know what this is those are stacks of hunky color bills that’s basically a billion dollars okay so you’re wondering what a billion dollars looks like there it is it’s 10,000 is a

Hundred million there’s a billion that’s me okay what is our economy / where’s the size of our economy 15 trillion dollars what does that look like looks like this those are those stacks of hundred-dollar bills sighs an airplane field football field whatever that’s our economy and these are the components of

Growth in the last few years consumer goods is up here what’s been happening with those with a big Porsche we are a consumer kind of mean the big push of course was housing but that as you all know flopped so to speak and so you can see that right here but coming back

Investments in business and other durable goods and then government spending and imports and experts are down here right in this little section is that petroleum importing that we do because it pushes our trade deficit over the top so our imbalance in trade this year something like that and as you know

We’re importing over eight million barrels a day million barrels a day at about a hundred dollars a barrel so you can figure out what that’s doing you also should realize that our economy the nation is largely pushed by five states and ten states compose maybe eighty percent of it just so you realize

That one of the big issues that we’re going to hear about wednesday night of course is our debt this graphic is a nonpartisan graphic it comes from the end of her policy school which basically is showing us the level of debt that we have today 16.1 trillion i believe is

Our debt ceiling is 16.4 remember with that trillion dollars affect the 50 trillion dollar economy look like well we have a 15 trillion dollar economy and a 16 million dollar debt so that’s not so hot but it’s not as bad as many other countries I think we could but we need

To address it and who owns it we own it china owns it insurance companies on it England owns it this is an older graphic I couldn’t find a more timely one but basically this is the distribution of the ownership of our death and who did it if you I’ll share these slides with

You you can take a look at them at your leisure but you can see different presidents contributed to different amounts of that debt but we need to deal with that we also have a water problem just as many parts of the world as we well know and that of course is going to

Have some impact on global warming and we have the water problem and the food problem that we have to deal with again I don’t want to address that i want to focus on energy tonight but i would hope another speaker would take up those large issues they’re all just too big to

Deal with in detail but here you can see in terms of our energy expenditure what it is it’s part of our gdp it’s almost ten percent of our GDP goes to our energy fences and where does it go much like the rest of the world petroleum natural gas coal renewable energy and nuclear

Power and this is this is a very common graphic that is always put out by a US Energy Agency which collects the best data in the world on this sort of thing and it shows you what the sources are for like the power residents industrial and transportation so basically

Electricity is taking a forty percent of our consumption transportation of the 28th industrial and residential commercial so if we want to attack the energy issue we need to attack it here and we need to attack it here this is good news for us right because we have

Some expertise in this and you can just see what’s happening with our oil imports very quickly here and where does our oil come from that we import Divya us petroleum is about a little more than half our net imports basically come from the northern hemisphere they come from

Canada Venezuela and Mexico very little from Saudi Arabia where does it go when it comes it goes basically to the Gulf Coast remember Hurricane Katrina remember what happened to the energy situation I didn’t we have to go into our strategic reserves because we were concerned about the price volatility and

The amount of energy that we had so concentrate on the Gulf Coast and spread out the others as we need it all right now these folks told us to be vigilant control the conversation and don’t get too comfortable my question is how can we do all these things the United States

If we don’t even know the end can you Larry so I think we need to go back to energy 101 and we need to look at the sources of our electricity what’s happening to these sources electricity in the United States today you know put the power you know what’s happening gas

Is beginning to replace the coal at the beginning we used to have more than fifty percent of our electricity was produced by cold so on down rather dramatically because of the presence of natural gas but not only the presence of natural gas but because of the regulatory framework that was put

Forward under the Clean Air Act natural gas is cleaner than coal coal plants are highly polluting and under the recently enacted Clean Air Act the energy companies had either invest heavily in their old coal plants many of them are old or replace them with something else

Which would be cheaper so they move to that and basically do you know what has happened to our percentage of greenhouse gas emissions in the past year it’s gone down it’s gone down so we can do all we want with renewables and hopefully we’ll get to renewables but we really need to

Be thinking about how we’re going to manage what’s happening in this area you saw how much and how important the power sector was to us and how we manage this piece because it’s highly controversial nitin you know Cole where does call come from and how does it work just quickly these

Are the cold regions comes down here gets processed ends up in electricity it’s through all this enormous infrastructure that we have throughout the United States and deliver sex to it and if you look regionally up here it’s all hydro why does that because of the dam construction we did in the New Deal

Period so we were able to support that kind of energy activity so we had a cast of dealing with big investments in this just to what happens with petroleum most of it comes to us through pipelines whether it comes in to the ports that you saw earlier and this is phenomenal

Port in Louisiana do you know about loop you may hear about loop well loop is the Louisiana offshore or court as you may or may not know the oil tankers have gotten larger and they can’t fit in many of our ports and so in the Gulf Coast what they’ve done is create this

Offshore port where the tanker comes to see me I’m let out a hose goes into a positive buoy first some sailor I am right and slice up to the buoy let the hose app all that oil gets the storage over a couple of days and on it goes on

To Louise en to Louisiana where it’s either refine or it’s sent drew through this pipeline system to the refineries in the Midwest of the east or whatever but many many were farming refined easier in here this whole story is incredibly complex and coming upon us to

Learn about it and of course here’s the picture of the natural gas situation you know the big story here the Marcellus and Utica Shale which is gas the Bakken which is oil more down here but then this is the process by which it all gets done this

Is what one of those grills looks like and there’s a lot of discussion about this which is the casing which needs to go down down down into the earth and that way to get to the oil we have been doing this kind of mining for years it’s

The lateral mining that we haven’t done we are building all sorts of pipelines to bring this product into our cities and off of our shores because we probably will thanks Gordon we really need to understand as planners the energies is entered in industry it’s a real it’s an industry and we’ve

Forgotten the splendors how to deal with industry because you don’t have a lot about in the United States at least dirty industry or contentious industries such as we have with our energy it’s complex academic environment and friendly it’s dispersed and there are a lot of interdependent pieces we need to

Know about this and we need to get the education we have shared vision and we need to show by our knowledge that we understand how this works now energies always been dirty you know what this is these are the oil fields I’ve got a Pittsburgh they were really disgusting

Right that used to be a beautiful farmland until oil king you know what this is that’s a nice residue from a coal mine you know all these people’s spots are impaired these are all the places our government has identified as needing cleanup because of things like

This now over time we have found ways to reduce risks with the production of energy not perfectly we’ve done a lot of damage to ourselves but we have the capacity through our regulatory and through our education system to deal with energy we had to because we wouldn’t have a 15

Trillion dollar economy if we hadn’t done that and so we’ve done so the question is for us today what do we need to do in the future to understand and manage this new source of energy that we’re hearing so much about we know nothing about as planners but we ought

To maybe I’m maybe I’m under estimating what we all know I apologize if I then but we need to be in that conversation you can’t control it if you’re not in it and here you see some of the aspects of a natural gas which is it is an industry

That’s packing up this is water storage drill suppressor does terrible things to roads it’s very complex but it does support new industries if you look at Youngstown Ohio which is a comfort that time a city anybody here from young Sam even know what black monday is black

Monday occurred I guess 40 years ago in the last steel company closed in Youngstown and that community has been grieving for 40 years over the closure of that industry because the town was built around that well all of a sudden they have seen some changes and over

Here at least 23 acres which used to be a steal related mill it got a new mill coming in this building special smooth pipes for the natural gas industry hundred jobs they cleaned up the brownfield they’ve got another piece over here the university starting a program to educate the proper use of

This particular product and so forth there’s one group that has is controversial but it’s taken a very interesting stand on how to manage the natural I issue and that’s the Environmental Defense Fund and they are putting enormous resources if several offices throughout the United States particularly Texas New York Pennsylvania

To work with state legislators to make sure that the proper regulation is there for the integrity of the pipe lines for the integrity of the drills for the treatment of the water and the lab gave a five-point program and the last piece of that program calls a responsible

Community and city planning where are we where are we all right so it’s time to think about design writ large how are we going to do sustainable sites low-impact development inclusive compact development well in the 1960s this screw began to think about new ways of urban

Design and in fact the book that we gave you is an attempt to say hey we need to be thinking about new ways of urban sustainable urban design and may need to educate people differently 65 the four years ago Paul davidoff stood in front metal because the number right but it in

The 1960s while davidoff stood in front of the American Planning Association and call for a new role for planners advocacy planning and putting the people back in planning both time for us the thought leaders you the thought leaders who are here to think about what the

Role for planning should be we all are saying Iman compact cities but do we know what the impacts are there an industry have we done that work that’s showing us what what we’re doing with energy so we need to do that we need to have an echo City and we need to put

Some strong numbers into this this this and other boxes that have to do with how we consume power and how we use our oil lots of people are thinking about this around the world you’re the city’s Alliance I’m thinking about it you have the OECD you have the World

Bank you have a peck so there’s knowledge out there thinking about it but we need to connect with it we need to have new partners we need to talk to engineers we can do geologists to investors that’s just a short list and we need to recast our assets we have

Phenomenal assets we can visualize we can analyze but really sensitive to holistic approaches and we can communicate and we need to get that knowledge that allow us to leave off into this bond and create the cities of tomorrow these folks all had big ideas

And I sure hope that you will join me in creating more big ideas so that we will have the world that we want to hand on to our children thank you Dean is free to take a few questions and so I will start off with one while do

You think of some a few years ago dr. Steven Chu now the US energy secretary spoke at a conference that APA co-sponsored and he talked about the fact that most of human progress over the last 150 years is because we learned how to capture and use fossil fuel by

His estimate every single person in the industrialized world now has the equivalent of 100 servants that’s the sort of measuring and so he looked out at the audience and he asked the question how many servants are you willing to give up and everybody kind of gulped and thought about that and then

He ask a second question he said who are we to tell the developing world that they should forego their service so I have a question for gene Oh what given the lack of a coherent energy policy in this country go into all the political reasons why that’s the case this is a

Conference on policy here in Washington of course but what do you think the chances might be that we can provide the leadership that we need to provide given all the facts and figures you’ve shown so that we are showing the world how one can still get the two things that are

Needed for not only just survival but for Prosperity so that we can have that conversation with the developing world and not just looking as though we used our servants and now we don’t want them to have theirs I think the two things we have to go first of all to educate

Ourselves we have to really I’m not just gave you a very superficial view of energy I mean we need to really understand we need to talk to the people who are involved in this particular activity and understand how it works and then take our craft and use our graph within

This conversation about energy in the United States first what it means that the developing world see how to the safe Griffin be you remember that map I showed you with our big fat economy on a big fat energy consumption and he’s right we’re going to give up those

Servants I don’t know we have to as designers as designers figure out how to do that figure out what it means to have a compact city and how you translate that into dollars so that it becomes more than just an idea that we talk about in front of each other largely

Because what’s being built around the United States these days is not necessarily a compact city so we need to find the value proposition in energy efficiency conservation and new energies and managing images but we can’t do that until we know what we’re talking about so we need to educate ourselves and then

You need to put we need a I hate to say this I manhattan project for planners and energy i think we’ll call it a washington project I’m from Manhattan so I so I think it’s it’s I mean I think we have to wake up and smell the coffee

We’ve been so we spend an awful lot of time worrying about the width of streets and sidewalks we ought to be worrying about that of course the ascetic reasons of course social reasons is going to be out but also we need to layer on the metrics of what this means and we need

To communicate this information to the public so it’s meaningful so the decisions will be taken not easy Scott has a hand mic if someone has a question we do want to get your question on the video all of our Burnham lectures will be put on the internet so you’ll be able

To not only comfortable in person here but watch others as they occur around the country in thinking back at my graduates education we talk about oil and oil and the technology has changed a lot of things and how do you see the interrelationship between planning we’re trying to look into

Sure with the amount of technology changes that can be just whole paradigm shifters and and how planners really be involved in technological innovation and connected to that because that really the technological change Kimberly finds in the futures we have and it’s a not a real solid connection well we have to

Understand the technology may have to understand how to harness it I mean it’s fairly basic and even though peak oil isn’t what’s being talked about expensive oil is they talked about that so the pocketbook is going to affect changes in weather and we did anticipate some of these things so that we have

Some answers as to how to address what has to happen it’s going to happen back here um talked about the innovative technology well we have technology that has existed for a long time that I don’t believe we’ve actually gotten behind and trying to push the educational that for

Instance you know the Gemini space missions because they didn’t take potable water they created their own water through a chemical reaction of hydrogen oxygen so water as a as a think of that in a different term of root of renewal resource something renew naturally but by a chemical reaction we

Have the investiture in that you know that’s the Space Shuttle that got out of space and gasoline so you know I please the political will I think we need a political will for that when President Kennedy said we’re going to be in the moon and this step by end of the second that

Was political will we need to be able to get the same type of political will today that can say we’re going to have these these types of resources and make them available within the next second so how do we do that well we as individuals don’t that do that have to be weighed

Fairly we have to make ourselves enough not knowledgeable enough so that we can push our leaders and make our leaders respond to us but as long as we’re kind of comfortable going along as we are business as usual there’s no imperative very nice talk enjoyed it I’m shocked by

The fact that number one the idea of having metrics for what kind of energy demand is going to be created by building the city’s we want I think there’s a terrific idea because all of the stars of communications but I also recognize working in Illinois for example our enabling legislation for

Planning is ancient and gives us very few tools work with I’m curiously to think about what needs to be done to the infrastructure of planning and enabling legislation to let ously come much more aggressive in that particular energy planning area that’s a really good question so I think we have to analyze

The industry and consider it in industry and one of the things that we know is it’s a very dispersed industry so it’s out in the country is in the city we need to work on the same metropolitan activities and it seems to me that where we can create common interests in the

Region where it to make progress so we’re not going to this overnight but we need to be smart and think about the Allies and think about how we can use this to underpin growing consensus around issues and then apply our tools whether it’s zoning whether it’s your design with me

Whatever to this particular arena in the face of all that you presented and the fact that it takes cultures time to adapt to change why is the topic of reducing the rate of population growth off the table actually when people move into cities they have fewer children and population the population growth takes

Care of itself and from that point of view because oftentimes their lives are healthier than ever as much space they have a more security in their economy or the different kind of jobs or whatever women get education if you educate a woman she’ll have fewer children all of

Those things are happening and how do you think that’s funny it smooth absolutely true all of these things can happen and do happen in city so the forecast that you see are taking into consideration a drop in fertility rate and the fact if you read the UN studies

They couch it with oh if our assumptions don’t work here fertility rate doesn’t drop that will have a different population so there is some sort of natural activity that occurs I was just wondering how much should the focus be on trying to shift to more in terms of managing and protective energy

How much is the focus again terms of shifting to renewables with that type of thing versus looking at the root cause of why we use so much energy I mean you talked about water and electricity about in terms of buildings and the amount of energy that building produce or of New

York City only recycles something like fifteen percent of their trash how much energy can we focus on trying to reduce our consumption whether it’s consumers and residences and businesses and industry or creating legislation to kind of address that part of the puzzle it’s not a binary it’s not an either/or it’s

A full-court press every single thing that we can think of whether it’s reduction with its efficiency with its find the interoperability mechanisms for renewables find ways to produce renewables at mass how do you deal with the carbon sequestration Cole note one of the big things that EDF is doing is

Working on a methane leakage on natural gas emits it this is a massive effort we need to engage in its not just a few of us planners thinking this is a good idea we need to find partners and allies and develop a common around this topic it’s too important to

Leave long and it’s too important to be fine i’m worried about it Jeannie thank you for the presentation you may not notice that tomorrow the board will be adopting in policy not on energy and so it’s it’s I think white topical entirely my question there’s a policy yes the

Policy now there’s no question to you elevated the importance of this not just to be a policy guy but really to address a sense of urgency that we need to get started that is for the professionals based upon you you’re working your knowledge of the planning institutions and graduate planning programs in terms

Of the young professionals coming interment school are you aware of how this is now being taken seriously or disgust at that level so that while at the professional level we need to get busy it’d be more bold and courageous about making this an issue incorporating to our conference plants and see more

Policies but on that level are you aware that they more discuss are discussed at the pub at the Graduate planning programs it is not being systematically discussed needs to be that’s why I’m here saying it but everyone’s just waking after this I think and we want to

Get in the conversation you want to be vigilant you want to control it and we want don’t want to get too comfortable I think we have time for one more question here and then we will have a reception and we can continue the conversation at that time

Gene you about the last of four decades we have watched another rub our hands and some semblance of feeling of helplessness through watch continuous disinvest sat in our urban core areas I think my question is now it’s how we manage the reverse of that how do we manage an accelerated rate of urban

Morphology and deconstruction if you will a various will be of lower density and slower desirability as we move into the next 10 20 30 40 years well there are many policy activities could occur but they wouldn’t be very popular for example if we put a good gas tax on

Gasoline that would certainly help matters remember 1974 were you probably don’t you too young but anyway we have gas shortages and how boy people moved into doesn’t use this message Ashley and so forth but we need to be active in the advocacy area to to have the real costs

Of energy reflected that’s not a popular move but I think we can take heart in I see it awful lot of young planners who come through our program and they are very but like they’re very focused on living close to the core and living in more dense conditions and not having

That long drive and someone and so forth so I think there is a slow change that’s occurring among youth but we have to make it affordable because oftentimes the inner core’s are not affordable so that’s an issue thank you very much again Jeanne and as you noted we started this series in July

With the three presidents of aia APA and SLA and you’ve shown how you played off of that tonight we much appreciated that but what we even more appreciated is the challenge that you will dissolve to continue to learn and continue to be leaders in our communities on what is

For many of us a new a new area and so I you’ve given a challenge to the future lecturers in this series to maintain the high standards now with these first two we look forward to continuing to work with you on the energy issue is what other issues thanks for taking your time

And preparing this presentation is part of the leadership meetings and the federal policy and program briefing here in Washington DC at this incredible building the National Building Museum thank you again Oh you

ID: JBJ2z6lvkPw
Time: 1357575034
Date: 2013-01-07 19:40:34
Duration: 01:13:06

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