Title:خودروها، خیابان ها و سیاست در سال ۲۰۳۵

۰۹-۰۷-۲۰۱۲ ارائه دهندگان: کریستوفر جی. گری، اریک نوبل، کتی روبینی، مارکو اندرسون این وب‌کست فقط برای مشاهده در دسترس است، برای اعتبارات AICP CM قابل استفاده نیست. گروه آینده خودرو یک جلسه تعاملی در مورد اینکه چگونه روندها در طراحی و فناوری خودرو در جاده ها و زمینه سیاست های آینده رخ خواهد داد، برگزار خواهد کرد. ما اطلاعات مهمی در مورد آینده طراحی خودرو ارائه خواهیم داد: شکل، وزن، اندازه، انواع سوخت و درجه اتوماسیون. سپس در مورد آینده زیرساخت های خود و نحوه استفاده از وسایل نقلیه جدید بحث خواهیم کرد، مسائلی مانند طراحی جاده و خطوط، قیمت گذاری، بیمه و سیاست عمومی را بررسی خواهیم کرد. مخاطب خواهد دید که ما با آینده ای روبرو هستیم که با روندهای متضاد مشخص می شود و نه راه حل های یکپارچه. بخش بعدی ارائه ما یک بحث خواهد بود که در آن از شرکت کنندگان خواسته می شود تا در مورد مثال ها و مطالعات موردی خود بحث کنند. ما زمانی را برای بحث و گفتگو در مورد طراحی-منطق صنعت خودرو و سایر جنبه های تحقیقات خود در نظر خواهیم گرفت.

قسمتي از متن فيلم: Hello my name is Benjamin Lee and I just want to welcome everyone it is now 1 p.m. so we’ll begin our presentation shortly today on September’s 7th we will have our presentation on cars street and policy in 2035 for help drink during today’s webcast please feel free to type

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Today’s date august seventeenth September 7th and then select today’s webcast cars street and policy in 2035 this webcast is available for 1.5 credit we are recording today’s webcast and it will be available along with a six slide per page PDF of the presentation at Utah AP org webcast

Archive at this time I would like to introduce Marco who will be introducing our speakers for today ok good morning or afternoon depending on where you’re dialing in from my name is marco anderson i’m a regional planner with sustainability department here at Southern California Association of Governments i’m here today wearing my

Hat as a member of the car future group however and just to give you a quick overview of this group i’m going to go ahead and share my slide presentation okay there we go so again the car future group formed roughly two and a half years ago when Cody roubini at the

Planning Center convened a very interesting symposium in Costa Mesa Orange County in California talking about the future of the automobile and there was about 30 to 40 attendees possibly more and this kind of spurned a a discussion group that’s been meeting for the last two and a half years to

Discuss the role of the automobile in the planning and urban form context and it really goes beyond that because very few public policy groups or agencies look at the individual automobile as a unit when discussing major planning generally the automobile discusses flows or in terms of infrastructure and so

This is a very novel idea to put on a table and Connie developed a program based on divine parameters to look at the problems and issues surrounding the car so that’s a little bit of the history today we’re going to be talking about some of the findings and an

Activity that resulted in the book that will be publishing that will have more information on there we go so just introduce the other panelists are going to be Christopher gray principal at ferrum peers and colleague rubini director of civic projects Eric noble at the car lab here

Are some of the members that have participated in the entire process Terry Hayes is also with us and may chime in if the spirit take them civic projects and here we go into our presentation cars are not dead one of the things that we looked at in crafting the book and

The working group series was the intersection of cars infrastructure and policy we took these terms very broadly and try to apply a design approach to designing for the automobiles role within all of these areas in the design approach you think about problem solving case studies and a desired outcome

Before you develop policy planning and data and that was something we wanted to bring to the planning practice Eric noble with the car lab is now going to introduce some of the design and technology trends and then we’ll get into some of the wide-ranging discussion

So I should be on rank and I come into on that end yep you’re coming through okay I but you might want to back up the mic just a little bit some feedback but otherwise volumes good that’s pretty much the story of my life people tell me

To step away from the mic on look what we’re showing here with these slides and what all of our forecasts show is it is a great diversity of vehicle types and vehicle powertrains really for the next 20 years it listen to foreseeable future in the US and that means that the IC e

Engine is going to continue to be a significant part of our of our roadways as our vehicles that more or less look conventional next slide and but i think you mean an internal combustion engine right there that’s right that’s right and in this slide we see the New York taxi effort which was

Recently won by Nissan but again with a more or less conventionally built vehicle a lot of a lot of a lot of C and genius is going to is going to move into our fleets on but even the good old-fashioned American pickup truck on the left is going to continue to be with

Us even while auto manufacturers like chrysler fiat promote be a fiat 500 which is an a class or an a segment car which is in the top right but sales and those will remain relatively small and the market will be dominated by full-size pickup still and by mid-size

Sedans like the hyundai sonata bottom right so what you see here is a twin we’re seeing a lot of in terms of advanced design exploration which is vehicles that are smaller than regular passenger cars ostensibly easier to solve first and last mile challenges on sales are

Still very low at this point but there’s a lot of interest in the design community this is a folding motorcycle many many examples of these in the market on these sort of vehicles will i would say proliferate that they at least begin to enter the market for North America and still relatively small

Numbers but we’re going to begin to need to be able to facilitate their use on other vehicles first on universal these things can be carried and intelligently vehicles IDs that probably can’t be carried on might be used for first and last mile solutions particularly in console with our public transit and now

Here you see the sort of makes me might have in our roadways cause from the 80s and 90s on maybe some mass and future electric cars pyaar ko top light was an example for the company has since failed but it’s a three wheeler we may still

See some of those and up on the upper left you see a European sized a utility vehicle but now configured for personal use imagine all of these on a road bed and that’s probably what we’re facing with the predominance between vehicles that look like bottom left you know five

To twenty year old more or less standard or what we call conventional cars mixed in with these other types of vehicles ian motorcycles etc so turns for 20 35 more modes bag rustles and any v’s interestingly I just got back from China and China we’re seeing a decline in sales of bicycles

This passenger cars proliferate so I mean we’re going a different direction the car fleet itself will be more heterogeneous than today’s certainly on I think we all can expect that the numbers though will be in the minority of non car vehicles demand for spacious cars will stay you’ll see all fuels but

We probably won’t see vehicles that are significantly smaller profit for automakers will continue to be made by large vehicles and that’s simply because they don’t cost much more to build that they can fetch a much higher price on cars will be manufacturing smaller numbers if for no other reason because

There are more and more automakers competing for the same pie so the slices of the pie will get smaller on this will be facilitated by advanced technology allowing small production runs to pay off and so we’re going to have small cars and motorcycles and hybrids available for a market that the

Management all mixed in with a more or less conventional vehicle fleet on with all sorts of power trains natural gas natural gas gasoline hybrids gasoline range extended battery electric and certainly lots and lots of hybrids this is there I I think we lost one of our presenters

Shows on the phone line so we’ll be back in a few minutes thanks you you you you you you you you you you you um hi entire office building in the Southern California planning group is down right now so we’ll have she wanted us to watch

A video it was actually part of the presentation so we’ll um watch this video i’ll send you guys the link on the chat box and we’ll see we’ll wait for them hey thanks you you you you you you you you you you you you you you you you you you you you you

You you you you you you you you you you you you you you you can you hear me now hold hold you you you what did I man can you pick me can you hear me now man you you you you ah I can you hear us now yeah you

Okay then we are I have it full screen ready to go just need to get the sharing ability from you okay so okay and then we’re not monitoring any questions so okay we are ready to go all right okay let me know when we’re back up then are

You guys can go ahead people hear us now yeah okay first of all everyone on the line who stayed with us profuse apologies we did have a network glitch go on and actually restart all of the computers unplanned I do want to apologize for being offline along we’ll

Pick up the pace a little bit and kind of get into some of the meat of the substance Eric noble are you on the line with us okay we may have yeah we I think we’re still in there by chat but I’m one of this one of the things i do want to

Go back to and talk really quickly before we continue talking with the streets a topic that’s kind of near and dear to the heart of this group and that’s autonomous vehicles if any of you follow the TRV transportation research board they recently had a symposium on autonomous vehicles in irvine california

And we found a very interesting case study of how the technology is moving much faster than the policy and liability issues in a task so there are significant trends when it comes to technology in the vehicle you think of the intersection between communications technology there people building into

The cars at the same time as the federal policies to reduce distractions and so the car industry itself is very slow to adopt as new technology but the technology is out there and of course Google is the company that kind of dropped a bomb by jumping quite a bit

Ahead of the usual consumer product development cycle for cars and and you know developing a fully autonomous vehicle which they’ve already license to test in the state of Nevada so you know when we talk about this we talk about this incredibly exciting paradigm shifting technology along with some of the things

That Eric highlighted but we also have to face the reality to Fleet turnover fleet turnover add some back there and now up to average 16 years on the road and there are some equity issues between different different urban areas having different fleet owner of us so we also

Have a mix of fuel types we have electricity of being bet on quite heavily by the public sector but the market for electrical vehicles is still in a process of early maturity or early maturing so those are some very significant trends that we have when it

Comes to the car Chris if you want to pick up where you’re talking about kind of the mix on the road and how that impacts the actual planning policies that go in it going just designing our street sure so what we’re what we’re likely to see in 20 35 in the future is

The increased deployment of technology we see more and more use of pricing access two lanes you know this may be experienced as real-time additional real-time pricing we see greater access to data so that modeling and analysis can be more precise and as an example my firm has been purchasing self cell phone

Data from cell phone providers which tracks people very accurately in terms of their travel patterns which gives us unparalleled access to data which we formally didn’t have before in in many cards parts of the country particularly in Southern California we see more density simply the the cost to extend

Infrastructure to the more rural and suburban areas will it is likely to be very much prohibitive so we see more people in more urbanized areas another policy trend is is a move away from the traditional audio auto oriented level service which which clearly have happened already and is going to

Continue to be so so that congestion is not going to be the limiting factor for future development that it once be and then finally we see very much a demand towards people viewing mobility as a service similar to a cell phone perhaps such that we see people wanting

To have mobility and wanting to have mobility options and and this is very much could be evidenced and in the insurance industry where the insurances she is now deploying and in some states pay as you drive insurance where you pay for the insurance that you use as you’re

Driving this will be counterbalanced by the risk adverse nature of the insurance industry so it will be very much in issue moving forward I will now turn it over to Terry Terry loompa Jerry I’d like to jump in really quickly and just talk about the two areas that Chris left

Off on level of service and information technology and mobility and give you just a few really quick regional examples here in the scag region we were working with el ADOT on reforming their level of service process and it becomes a very arduous legalistic process well past the time when the technology is

Available to crunch the numbers and so we’re following the example of San Francisco which recently went through a massive overhaul of how they do level of service and and and they’re really kind of leading the edge but as we see this more fine-grained analysis it’s going to

Require a local body that’s going to accept that and basically except the underlying assumption that the car travel isn’t doesn’t have to be impeded all the time or can be impeded for the benefit of other modes so that’s the fundamental political decision that still need to be made thanks Marco I

Just want to talk a little bit about one of the socioeconomic factors that tippers our view of the future in terms of looking at the car which what you see in front of you is a bar chart based on a mini survey we did in the Southern California area of local shopping areas

And one of the things that is important to understand from this chart as we look from left to right in terms of the names of the locations in the wood Compton Culver City pasadena and Westwood these these communities have differing levels of socioeconomic status and income with their lower levels being on the

Inglewood Compton side and the higher levels being in palos verdes in Westwood the important thing to think about it as we look at the future of the car is the retention of vehicles in different socio-economic environment is that as you can see the larger portion of older vehicles and probably not surprisingly

Is in the lower socioeconomic areas the problem becomes as we start to think towards the future is that the technology for the higher technology associated with automobiles use is focused primarily on the high end vehicle we talked about the BMW’s in the Mercedes and those types of vehicles and

You can see as the cars are older in certain neighborhoods that these types of Technology aren’t going to be passed through as rapidly so there’s a real serious question in front of us of it as to how the legacy vehicles are treated as we move towards the future back to

Chris and so the the issue of legacy vehicles is is a critical one in the design of our roadways and so as part of this exercise of went through a very intensive design process to look at a number of what-ifs and so on this first

Slide here we want to show you just a typical roadway this is a typical roadway in Orange County California and you know this is you know an example the slide before is an example of a typical roadway and and and we oftentimes you know the roads that we drive on in a

Daily basis of a lot of them are like your most the time the travel lane is about 12 10 to 12 feet wide you know two-lane roads or common in residential areas four to six lane roads are common you know oftentimes they’re collectors are terials and then there’s freeways and

Those are the roads that most people travel on that the challenge is that every car currently is essentially the same whether it’s made by a different company or it looks different paints different every car is driven by a person the cars oftentimes have very similar performance characteristics and

We have a very homogeneous vehicle fleet but what we’ve shown you in 20 35 is there are some very significant technology and market trends which is going to change that so as an example the exercise we took was we took a typical suburban arterial roadway and

Said well what might that look like what for example could we have an autonomous vehicle lane and what we found in this example was it was very difficult to put in a on a even a roadway where we had four six lanes of travel or we had a

۶۰-foot curved curb with or 70 foot curb to curb width which is very common it was incredibly challenging to put in an autonomous vehicle lane particularly once we started allocating space for bicycles potentially for transit vehicles turning movements as well and the challenge is that the benefits of

The autonomous vehicles mainly accrue or occur when they’re in lanes to themselves so once you take on autonomous vehicle and put it away with only autonomous vehicles the vehicles can follow very closely they can travel at higher speeds you can get much higher capacities because they’re there is

Enough safety features built into these cars that you can really maximize their performance however when you’re mixing in the legacy vehicles which we’ve shown you aren’t going anywhere and are going to be around for a while so the challenge for us was essentially how does the autonomous 2035 Mercedes

Commingle and Elaine with a 2010 Cadillac Escalade so as and we we did this exercise not just on the arterioles but for example how might this work in a in a residential area and one concept we had was there may just simply be lanes where the traffic comb ingles whether it’s a

Personal mobility device bicycle a medium-sized truck a passenger car that vehicle is those vehicles all intermixed so that’s clearly 11 potential option for this as well the the other option within a residential street would be to create these prioritized lanes and if and if we do see the widespread

Deployment again of these personal mobility devices and examples might be the segways or the the folding motorcycles or even electric bicycles and the like it is creating dedicated lanes for them that the challenge for this is for this scenario if you have dedicated lanes is is can you really

Efficiently or powered drivers react to someone segregating a lane on a residential street which is usually not which is not something they’re used to to to allocate lanes for these devices that the challenge too is that with with a hook with a heterogeneous vehicle fleet it is will have a discrepancy in

Speed so a personal mobility device that might go no more than 10 miles an hour being intermixed with a car that could go zero to 100 miles an hour and there’s some significant safety implications for that next slide Marco so then with that being said we’ve looked at other

Scenarios and and perhaps a bi-directional lane where people can travel in both weigh several or so there’s similar to a two-way bicycle lane for the personal mobility devices where we really segregate the personal mobility devices again because of their lower speed from the vehicles and so this just

Illustrates the variety of options that can that can be found in the future as we have a more heterogeneous vehicle fleet going from from not just the arterial but also to the residential street the one of the more challenging and interesting exercises is also carry this this thought through on the

Highways and and to illustrate the importance of this I wanted to speak for a minute about the typical highway design process where where there’s planning and there’s analysis done and and for example in Southern California there are you know a freeway might take you know ten years to plan plan and

Design and upwards of that long to acquire the right-of-way build the freeway to make the pre-operational so you’re looking at improvements that that have you know lead times that might be decades long and so oh we thought for example that the freeway might be the easiest facility to plan and design for

However it became very challenging so for example if we were to take an HOV Lane on a freeway or take one of the lanes away and say okay this is now an autonomous vehicle lane the the difficulty then becomes well how do they get out of that lane how do you link

That autonomous vehicle lane with an off-ramp how do you merge them onto the off ramps and so on the freeway main lines and he changes it became it was fairly simple to set lanes aside but once we started planning through how the various connections would be maybe

Became much more it became much more problematic the the result of this exercise led us to realize that that integrating these autonomous vehicles into the roadway network is is not going to be easy it’s not going to be straightforward it’s going to be extremely challenging and so it’s going

To be difficult we believe it’s going to be incredibly difficult for these vehicles and these types of vehicles to be integrated into the transportation system over the next 20 years the the additional challenges posed by the long lead times and we think some of the socio-economic

Challenges in that the ability to go in and retrofit freeways and and large roadways that a very broad level is going to be difficult because of the lack of resources of the federal state local level so that we urge folks to begin thinking now about the autonomous vehicles thinking now about the design

And as vehicles are designed these facilities are designed to think through how are we going to be accommodating these vehicles when they are there Chris I’m going to jump in as Marco some of the interesting conversation that happened around this concept of design of roadways at the TRB autonomous

Conference went back and forth on some some some important matrices and one of which is a risk and complexity and one of the interesting questions that’s still very prevalent in this mix of vehicles and this level of autonomy is within a slow-speed environment you have how much higher risk but you have less

Complexity of error but rather you have more need for sensitivity of the environment in the high speed environment you actually have quite a bit of complexity of variables but some key variables are removed new question being the direction and the kind of range of speeds not necessarily absolute

Speed and so there’s two parallel systems of thought that are actually a play the Google model is developing a fully autonomous vehicle that will control itself and sense its environment and currently in testing the google people that are allowed to use the vehicle on a regular basis generally

Describe a commute where they drive to their local freeway get on the freeway get generally into their land the car takes over for most of the freeway driving they call it hands off feed off and so that’s the benefit of the high speed environment is that everyone’s

Going in same direction and so for the current role that seems to be the preferred method but the other paradigm is that autonomy and this is full autonomy straight out of the box the other paradigm is in the car in the vehicle manufacturing model where they like to add incremental

Features to keep production steady and also not to scare off consumers and so they see it as agglomeration of different available technology and some of the car designers oil with you know there are these two models and and the fact is the it may actually be two different engineering paradise so so

Where the cars what they’re going to be introducing over as soon as the next five to ten years in 2017 Mercedes will be available with something called Janice’s which is basically hands off feed off driving but only within kind of traffic jam scenarios and they’re trying

To figure out a way to keep to force you to stay engaged so the Mercedes example you have to touch the steering wheel every 15 seconds to stay engaged so now when you start to tease the actual application that you see that we’re talking about to mental paradigm one is

How you sit in a car and it takes you where you need to go the other one is how do you make your car closer to sitting there but still haven’t you engaged so that the highway scenario really is a kind of a test bed and and I

And thinking is still generally likely that that a full autonomy will avail to be available as a mode within highway driving even from the automaker’s point of view before it’s available as kind of a a way to be in your car on on a neighborhood street and then the

Complexity of that is as we talked before is the legacy vehicle so you may have a certain you know multiple technologies of autonomous vehicles or assisted autonomous vehicles on the same time as a maybe a truck a large truck which may or may not be autonomous a number of passenger cars so the

Discussion needs to consider all of these vehicles all the types of technologies and what we really need to plan for in the next 20 years we think is this very messy very complex environment where all these vehicle types are found as opposed to the environment where they’ve worked everything out so and you

Know again we’ve in addition to the freeways and the residential streets we’ve thought through well what’s up you know what are some other scenarios for for roads of the future an example this is just another example for a community where there might be relatively low auto ownership or household this is this is

Could be an extension what’s happening today one example you want to talk another issue that we’ve talked about is could the ownership paradigm for cars chains essentially most people own their cars or have some kind of financing mechanism but their car is their car we discussed in our group might a model

Like cell phones where you use the car on a short term basis you turn it back in your you’re owning the part differently than today or as is starting to be something like a zip car or you access the cars you need it so in an environment where fewer people have cars

And families only have the cars they need when they need it we don’t need roadways which are which are as wide as they are today or we need any created as many lanes as we do next slide so another option is in again so this illustrates the high degree of

Uncertainty we could be in a scenario where perhaps there’s as many cars as are available to most families or their there’s even more cars another potential trend is the there can be changes in auto manufacturing and and if cars are made cheaper or or there’s a greater heterogeneity you might have families

That have a commuter car or personal mobility device multiple short lane directed cars and under that circumstance you know you may find houses that have five or six cars per person or five or six vehicles I’m sorry per household and under that oh we would actually need some you know

A very flexible transportation network which is accommodating potentially a large number of passenger vehicles even in a residential area co-mingling with bikes electric bikes personal mobility devices delivery vehicles and the like because another trend that’s happening is the the proliferation of delivery vehicles is not going anywhere if

Anything it’s going to be increasing as more people shop at home as as there’s a greater need to distribute goods and services within our communities so we see the need to under this scenario to potentially accommodate even more vehicles than we have today so hi everybody my name is Cody beanie and I’m

The director of civic project and civic projects is a nonprofit organization that initiates and developed projects around a mixture and a kind of cross-pollination of professional unusual unexpected professional expertise before we take viewer questions we wanted to just underscore of the questions that we’re grappling with in the car future group the primary

One being how will we handle the new mix of cars on our roads and this kind of sets the stage for the investigations and the discussions that we’ve been having over the past year or two and the next question the other question has to do with the cars themselves which is a

Will they be hold on to the second of sorry will they be members of the family or will they be generic this in reference to the the new leasing and car sharing models that we were talking a bit about before this idea that in the future

We’ll be able to access a wide variety of different types of cars according to our specific needs at any given time so those are two big questions that don’t have any simple answer next slide I wanted to let everyone know that we go into these topics in more detail in a

Book that’s going to be coming out in the winter of 2013 called the car and 2035 and we can talk about that more after we we get your questions and we can discuss what we do in this book and the objective the broader objectives with that so I wanted to really quickly

We’re just going to go around the four speakers here I think we did lose Eric noble unfortunately I’m sorry oh you back yeah I’ve been on I’m just I just needed because I’m in an environment where there’s too much background noise pathologies great I call my kids

Background noise to the I will lose muscle the big questions that I’m thinking of at the regional level of one of the things that keeps coming up is if this ownership model develops and of course recognizing that across the country they will see every single type of permutation of these patterns so

There’s there’s but no model that’s going to fit Indiana the same way it fits California or even within the scag region or within one of our larger city so the question is if everyone’s owning fewer cars but they’re in more constant rotation what will the absolute number of vehicles on the road

A being driven bmt and therefore polluting or not polluting be and there’s no quick easy answer for that I’m not a modeler but I’m sure it will employ someone for years to come so that’s a one of the big questions that comes out of this from my perspective

Kerry well look what one of the things that we have to keep in mind is that the life cycle for a vehicle is about half a dozen years and that’s after it goes into production the planning window for a vehicle is half a decade so on the new

Vehicle that is going to come into the mix even as it employs many technologies or even as it enjoys more forms of ownership or non ownership on that changed to our total fleet is going to happen almost glacially because we’re looking at really a a dozen years on for

An entire vehicle to cycle over in other words we’ve got five or six years to plan it and then it’s on sale for another five or six years so if we start talking about even today 2025 we need to realize that the vehicles for 2017 for

North America and for the rest of the world are already basically planned and so weak we and those vehicles are going to be essentially completely conventional we work on those so we’re well aware of that so the next cycle of vehicles basically that can be planned

Or will be planned in 2018 and those vehicles probably won’t come out until 20 25 and these will only be incremental on to incremental or replacement to our total vehicle fleet in the United States so again to underscore the point of how diverse the vehicle fleet is going to be

Potentially we have the ability for fully autonomous vehicles to be planned in probably the 2020s at a commercial level or the oil at a private vehicle level yet those vehicles come out in very very small fractions of our total vehicle fleet Eric what in the spirit of kind of what’s what’s a big

Question that’s out there in your field right now that has kind of multiple answers that we that you’d like to share well one of the things that has recently been news again is the increased cafe standard which is going to push cafe corporate average fuel economy standards

Up toward 40 50 miles a gallon by 2025 and frankly most car makers are absolutely uncertain how they’ll achieve that but I think it will end up being a mix of vehicles so they’ll have a slightly each of them will do it in different ways someone will make more

Small vehicles some will make fewer of the very thirstiest vehicles others will rely completely on hybrids others like Nissan are going to continue to bet on battery electric or plug-in on others will probably go very heavily toward natural gas on so much like you talked about regionally we could have different

Answers for Indiana we could have different answers for General Motors and Toyota and chrysler fiat in terms of the way they want to mix their fleets for 20-25 2035 and that’s all completely up in the air for the automaker’s nobody yet believes that there’s one single direction that’s great thanks Erik Terry

Oh what’s your big question that being peed down this research I think the big question from the standpoint of you know local community the neighborhood is the issue of the equity and the social equity of this technology and the access to the technology as time passes I mean

We talked very blindly about technology being available in different types of cars autonomous cars whatever but keep in mind that these legacy vehicles and the folks who drive them and I think we have to be very careful to understand that there’s actually people in these cars and they have different

Socioeconomic status they have different geo spatial locations and it could well be that the people that need travel the most in the future have access to the vehicles of the least amount of technology given given the way things in the in urban environment and separate environment are changing today

Yeah I when eric has talked about the lead time I just want to make sure everyone’s aware of the lead time for for transportation facilities for roadways and and and talking about road improvements that take decades to plan and design build is is not an exaggeration particularly at the you

Know the very large regional infrastructure so from so in the context of 2035 in many communities we’re looking very likely at the roads that are there today are going to very much be the roads that you’ll find in the future however you may be able to restripe them you have changed them but

Fundamentally the streets will very much look the same so with all this heterogeneity which made which may be found in some communities not in others we r we r ability to make significant changes to our transportation system are going to very much be limited before we go to questions or the question that

We’ve talked about Chris and that is both of us of background in transportation planning which combines the reality of what a road looks like with a lot of data modeling and assumptions and and all kinds of policy procedures and steps a lot of that long lead time we can acknowledge it based on

Environmental clearance planning not necessarily in the resurfacing we’re talking just about resurfacing so what do you think the future of the actual technical graph is transportation or modeling is it going to be impacted or will have to change to accommodate why if for many of the tools we use the

Capability to to model the effect the autonomous vehicle is there in many cases it’s it’s done through looking at the capacity I for example would suggest that if we are if we’re working on large regional projects we shouldn’t we should be looking at least at a very general

Level of do we have solutions that could work for the scenario and I’ll give you a brief example we see a very significant capacity increase for autonomous vehicles or semi autonomous vehicles on freeway lanes but if those people on the freeway can’t get off the freeway or

Can’t get through an intersection or a ramp then you may not see the capacity benefit but I’d also like to I want to touch on something that Terry mentioned about particular about social equity in many instances the facilities that we’re looking at could be retrofits and i

Would i would just posit the question and this has happened in particular with toll lanes and that when communities have looked at for example converting HOV lanes toll lanes they’re often aggressively called lexus lanes or they’re attacked on equity grounds and and think through if a region is looking

At building some lanes or facilities for autonomous vehicles they could be very expensive because the retrofits and within the region they could be challenged as is that the best and highest best use of our resources ok we’re going to kick over to our organizer and see if we have any

Questions ok there are a bunch of questions in the question box go ahead and Ben sorry to everyone inside baseball here how do I get to the question box all this under the audio and the polls is that right above it in okay so I everyone will be with you in

Just one second you know what i’ll do is before kicking off the questions will just kind of wrap up a little bit just thank everyone for for you know participating in this kind of informational part of it and man sorry sorry Ben I’m having trouble finding and

Tonight can I see it as signed in the way I’m so I am why don’t I stop sharing and then you can you can take over okay we had a couple questions about autonomous vehicle could you explain more about those okay I’ll take that as well and invent if you can figure out

How to show that question box on this again so we can see it they’ll be great okay so autonomous vehicles very quickly this is kind of getting what we were talking about is you know you can popularly called the Google car and right now there are a number of levels

Of autonomy and and there are a few kind of tax on and we live in the less developed that would range from different stages of semi-autonomous and this would be the idea of features introduced into existing cars like Eric mentioned over the next probably one of ten years for these types of features

That would allow you to control less of the vehicle and this is what’s referred to as hands off feed off because the highest level of this where you still have to pay attention that the car is pretty much driving itself then the Google model is full autonomy with a car

Is really completely operating itself and Eric I’d be interested in your comment on this something i overheard of the conference was the car makers saying well we don’t really you know we’re kind of Google kind of you know upsetting the cart here because if Google were to partner with some kind of manufacturer

That can figure out the rules of producing a vehicle that’s a huge if they could introduce a paradigm changing model or for some kind of application and so what do you think the likelihood of that kind of you know product being released that like you said maybe in

Small amounts but could be like an iPad and have a fundamental influence on every other product well one of the things that we have to understand is usually in life when we see things as as revolution on the surface underneath it’s actually evolution and so from from the standpoint of within the auto

Industry autonomy has been creeping into cars for a long time whether or not most of us know it or would even like it most cars sold today are already drive by wire and by that we mean the steering wheel you turn isn’t really mechanically connected at this point on to

To the rack and pinion on that actually operates the rods that turn the wheel our throttles have not been connected by cables for a long time our brake systems now interpret our movements on the brake pedal on as much as they’re actually mechanically just translating them we’ve

Got vehicles that many many new cars depending on the trim level purchased have backup cameras on they have lane departure warning sensors they have active speed following control on we’ve got automatic day nightmares we’ve got vehicles that will help you parallel park or will actually park themselves

We’ve had vehicles off and on for years with four-wheel steering on all of these functions have been discreet at some point it will be relatively easy for automakers to knit them together so in actuality car makers don’t really view google as a threat on there a little bit

Irritated of course by public response to the Google cars because you have some consumers and certainly some on agency side saying well why don’t you bring this out and then car make your response is frankly that drivers aren’t ready laws aren’t ready infrastructure isn’t ready and they’re not really certain of

Consumer demand at this point so what automakers will continue to do is just deliver more of these technologies in discrete ways and to Terry’s point we’re going to have an equity a social equity issue here because men cars and expensive new cars are the ones that are going to get these technologies first

That’s always the way it is the extent we begin to plan our infrastructure around them we’ve got to realize effectively will be planning our infrastructure around new cars for wealthy people and that’s problematic on the flip side of that is the cars that are being sold in today that say aren’t

Automated are meant and regulated to last much much longer then cars worth 20 or 30 years ago primarily because of safety regulations and emissions regulations so if we think about the legacy vehicles that will ban the fleet by 2020 we might have vehicles that stay in the fleet for 20 years so

If you’ve got economically disadvantaged people and vehicles that are not autonomous and those nickels are in great shape and are going to live for 20 years on the roadways and we’ve got a few people if I can use you know Lexus here is the brand to pick on if you’ve

Got a few people in lex I that are potentially fully autonomous but those people are very wealthy and those vehicles are brand new from an equity standpoint how are we going to grapple with this I’m going to come to some questions that we finally got the

Question box up here I’m going to group a few questions together here regarding what what are the current policy is going on whether state deities are considering this and what are the lessons going on Europe State do tease florida and nevada have actually explicitly licensed these i started a

Licensing program to license vehicles and to start testing them on the road so again this is the kind of very i think a very positive kind of approach which is with caution but guess you know getting the things out there europe is actually putting a lot of funding into

Demonstrations and tests of platooning of vehicles and this will be the ability to get cards to communicate with each other and i’m driving for tunes again technology is very promising but getting it regulated getting it into consumer shape is a different matter however the Japanese and the Europeans are a bit

Farther along in that regard because their auto manufacturers are participating in these funding studies and so we’re thinking about Volvos it’s doing quite a bit of platooning and in Japan Toyota’s doing platooning I think importuning is getting the vehicle to talk to each other so they can safely

Drive very close distances so going back there’s another question about some of the features in how they would best whether they’re autonomous features that do serve pedestrian and and close orbit environments on top over to Chris sure it in terms of the technology in vehicles one of the

Technology to see deployed already or soon to be things like assisted breaking collision avoidance systems and so it’s it’s not inconceivable that if instead of fully instead of a fleet of Google cars we see cars where or more and more the cars have collision avoidance and a

Analogy I like to give our car navigation systems and if you think back 20 years ago if anyone had a car navigation system it was a very high-end car now i can buy a gps unit for ninety nine dollars at Best Buy and we see more and more cars having navigation units

And Bluetooth units and the like so within the urban environments I see quite a bit of promise for for either assisted breaking collision avoidance or other systems and which may cut down on some of the bicycle pedestrian collisions okay I’d like to take another question one of the questions that all

Of our scenarios assume that urban environments are going to be getting denser and more populated what if it isn’t the case and I would answer that in the regional point of view again going back to that that huge range of densities that we’re going to see you

Know for the last 30 years we’ve sometimes been thinking of rural suburban and urban and those are only three buckets and we are we’re really at the regional level again in our MPL planning really trying to have a much more fine-grained approach and so within that urban there should there should be

You know seven or eight buckets and some of those buckets are going to become more populated but not more dense others may have very different changes but within those buckets that are definitely going to be areas in the country in most of the major regions that are going to

Be getting denser only because they’re currently constrained by rules that apply to suburban areas and those rules are slowly being lifted and so the sheer mechanics of the creation of housing and and offers an employment mean that these expensive areas if you lift their bare years on parking are going to just get

More populated and if the trend we’ve seen for less three to five years again it’s not going to be universal it could only apply to sort of you know square miles here or there but we definitely think there are areas that are going to have this and so question is how will

They respond to the vehicle mix in mark I just want to add that a lot of the lessons still apply regardless of where you are and so you can imagine if if you’re in a rural area and there are a handful of autonomous vehicles or semi autonomous vehicles sharing the roads

With older legacy cars some of the lessons still obtain it’s going to be it’s something you need to be aware of it’s something you need to plan for it’s something you need to be cognizant of and it’s it’s just going to make make you know items more complex whether it’s

A rural suburban or a very urban area there are a number of questions about interface between and you know we’re not just talking about Tom’s vehicles Eric pointed out there’s a whole lot of changes in vehicle type that could come in over over 20 years and so talking

About the range of vehicles and their integration with transit transits interesting you know transit and freight are very good candidates for a lot of this technology because they will benefit the most when you consider the you know the risk and driver risk and and their ability to possibly and again

This becomes a labor issue possibly you know drivers be more like operators rather than drivers of vehicles but the problem is they have the longest sleep turnover so the innovations have to be even more robust and and and so there are there are cases of transit vehicles

Being adapted with with this kind of jam assist to increase highways and if they have jam assists the idea that within that 20 year time frame we fully will see that bill at the electronic level more communication between vehicle so you could have vehicle again not automatically driving around cards but

Just communicating with transit and possibly benefiting from the traffic information that trans become in the opposite way may have yeah and we’ve seen examples in Europe of some autonomous i would call semi-autonomous transit vehicles where the as Marcus said that the persons not really the driver he’s more

Of an operator to make sure nothing goes wrong but transit vehicle could operate by itself and in particular with transit I do want to raise the issue that tragedies get a lot of their funding from state and federal governments and we’ve seen recent turnover and bus fleets to go from diesel and gasoline

Vehicles CNG and other alternative vehicles so this is a policy that at one various agencies would want implemented it would be possible to assent to incentivize the adoption of this technology if the fundings available we had an interesting question about the range of variety of cars and how that

Will impact of fueling systems and I’ll start this off scag is currently funding a major study looking at electric vehicle readiness and again that’s really only one of a number of different type of fueling scenarios the experts in our group involved with Auto Club of Southern California and and Eric’s

Contribution they can they have confirmed the internal combustion engine and gasoline will be with us as the predominant fuel source for the foreseeable future but vehicles have a lot they can do to be more better users of that resource and we will see these other fuel mixes start to penetrate the

Market and in the case of EV there’s a lot of assumptions regarding whether this will look like a gas station or not and and some of the debate is very preliminary but we found that most people rethink think about having to have during the day fuel access to

Electricity and then in order to buy a car less than twenty percent use it on any kind of regular basis so it’s a safety blanket it’s a necessary one and then it becomes you know they really are charging at home with 120 120 volts that is so baseball so that’s one

Question but we do have liquid net at loop again getting back to the fleet question especially we have a huge proliferation of fuels and in the fleet and so my taken just as more people are getting involved in the clear and more types of vehicles become available

We’re just going to have a much more wide diverse Alyssa fueled and I like to look at it generationally also and think about the fact that um you know 20 30 years ago we really required a single standard most people are much more comfortable with multiple standards in play you think about consumer

Electronics and payment options and things like that so as long as there’s a base ability to refuel a vehicle I think some consumers are going to be okay with it and at least willing to buy a car which they know they can replace in 55 years that’s my take on fuels but

Cristiana Anakin or arab guy and just just a quick story when we’re talking to triple-a about this one of the issues there they’re wrestling with is what kind of service vehicles do they buy because right now Triple A is really easy if you run out of fuel they send

Out a truck it has gas or diesel and you’re good to go but do they protect will have a CNG fueling vehicle do they have a quick charging vehicle and so they’re wrestling with these issues and so we’re the only other thing I would add is that for some of these non IC

Technologies the availability fueling could very much influenced their adoption and so if you if you if you’re not comfortable that there’s an accessible CNG fueling station out there for you you’re less likely to buy a CNG car than a regular gas vehicle because you know you can always find a gas

Station yeah this is ericka the thing I would add to that is that I’m some folks now I’m certainly on at the on the automaker side and also on the energy side the gas patch by taking the approach that probably the infrastructure that exists for fueling with with conventional gas stations I

Have you know somewhere between 110 and 120 thousand gas stations nationwide in the continental US that probably can’t be either replicated or beat certainly in other words there are practical considerations that would prevent natural gas from having an infrastructure that even close to that I’m with regards to electric field charging is extremely

Problematic the economic model probably doesn’t work very well and perhaps most importantly the batteries and battery electric vehicles don’t really like a quick charge it’s very degrading which is very expensive to the consumer so the reality is a lot of these alternative fuels are probably going to be put back

Into the vehicle by the consumer at home and that’s natural gas and that and that’s electric and that starts to look a lot more like a plug-in model where the consumer charges the vehicle Sun at night and takes off with it and runs on battery and at some point the people

Just switch us to gasoline and please imagine also that same thing happening with natural gas a natural gas vehicle being filled at night to some level much smaller than a 200 mile range you know maybe only 40 or 50 miles on natural gas and then at some point that vehicle just

Switching back over to gasoline both those scenarios exist technologically today Europe we see a lot of dual fuel vehicles I think we’ll see a lot more of them here and precisely because the gasoline infrastructure can probably never be replicated again at least not in our lifetimes okay we have a question

Here regarding the business relationship between users vehicles and roadways and I’m really glad somebody add this because I just finished my article about this and and what and and it gets to what Eric was saying about the gas tax and one of the things that people within the transportation feel are pretty much

Agreement on right now is that the gas tax can not be sustained as a single credible method for paying for our national transportation infrastructure and the national infrastructure payments is really what kind of gets disseminated to the regional and local level so we’re really talked about the same thing

Currently scag I I don’t have the exact numbers but of the vast majority of its programmed money for transportation both roads and transit is sales tax which which is definitely from a policy perspective not the best way to link use edge with payment but it does hit the

Entire base of population so this model the current model we have right now is by everyone’s recognition severely hampered if not broken and in need of reform scag took the step of actually including a user fee into its modeling for the 2035 RTP with the understanding that something like this is going to

Have to happen at the federal and state level so that becomes an issue for the next reauthorization so so you know what we’ve developed over the years of the gas tax and with you know vehicles of varying capabilities is a complete separation of my concept as a user of

The marginal cost of how I get around and so on the transit side you know when you take a trip you pay for that trip and it kind of inhibits you from you know taking each trip and so Transit is moving towards something like that where they’re all trying to institute tap card

So that electronically you paid for a series of trips you pay for your month worth of trip and on the vehicle side you know user based pricing could be instituted and as simple as reformat you know certifying your ear odometer reading every year when you when you get

To car register and that would take care of a lot of privacy concerns but electronic trolling and directly communicate like that that has a lot of privacy concerns which are still being hotly debated so again you have right now we have a system where the infrastructure is not being paid for at

The level that is being used by the users by the right and so so just simply tolling everything is not the answer but some combination of those things is probably going to happen and again also being forced by you know as electricity comes into play how do you get people to

Pay for that you know how you include you know if they do it at home it’s easy but if they want to do it at work that becomes a concern so yeah that’s that’s kind of my take on that the pricing and infrastructure issue yeah it is I think

Again the or refrain is heterogeneity you know in some regions a tolling might be an example where people are paying directly you know more directly for their wall they’re road usage more toll roads may be in California we have the option of taxing ourselves to the sales tax of

Paper transportation so that’s why Marco is referring to and in many areas of southern california it is the sort of California it is the primary funding mechanism and so the again as the technology changes and transportation of ours of all regions are going to find all sorts of innovative ways to pay for

Their theory infrastructure means I think we’ve taken care of a significant number of questions there’s one more question here on the right sharing and again that that’s another innovation that is you know pretty much showing itself as it stays only be viable within dense urban environments and what’s

Interesting is that a number of the established rental car agencies are looking at models how to get into it and there was a recent article where GM on chart service now partnering with a ride-sharing company so that you can actually unlock your car remotely and hand it over to someone and ride-sharing

Went through a difficult period but they have solves a lot of the insurance issues so you you are covered the person is covered I don’t know all the details but its consumer available and as having rising acceptances so there’s some interest in whether GM taking this on we

Would really help the process because what was identified from consumer point of view is that right vehicle sharing with your own owned vehicle insurance was an issue and also handing off the keys so here you’ve taken care of two major consumer barriers but we’ll see over the next number of years how the

Tix off I I know within very dense areas like San Francisco and and Manhattan ride-sharing and very easy to use and so when something’s that easy people people start doing it the we’re going to wrap up here i think i’m just going to really quickly take a scan

There is one question here sorry again they’re kind of buried in here someone asked about and Chris kind of touched on this but why don’t we just restripe all of the infrastructure to multiple and segregated lane and I think at the at the low at the non highway environment

You know when it comes to bike having much more developed engineered infrastructure I think that’s one trend we’re seeing however the idea of segregating all these different multiple vehicles on the roadway side on the on the full vehicle side it looks like we’re actually going kind of an opposite

Trend into you know left lane striping more kind of attention based vehicle the concept of the burner from Europe where you remove all the triage and very low speed environments and it forces people to make eye contact and we humanize is driving and that’s showing a lot of

Promise when people talk about that they think they mean like citywide no one’s proposing that we’re talking about a couple of square blocks and Chris you want to talk about it kind of the arterial experience why you would or wouldn’t necessarily stripe it a bunch of different ways yeah and the the

Challenge on the arterial is is you oftentimes have to deal with turning movements so for example let’s say you put it a dedicated bus lane on an arterial well the the question would be how would you then carry that through the intersection how would you carry that through you know the various

Configurations because it’s not uncommon for arterioles to add lanes or drop lanes going to go from two to four for six you know six back to four so that’s where it becomes challenging if there is striping you know restriping done we see it as being primarily focused on segregating the very low-speed vehicles

From a traditional cars similar to putting in bike lanes there may be applications for transit lanes but we think it would be problematic to systematically restripe arterioles to add all these dedicated lanes and again finally you don’t really have that many options you know on a four-lane road

Would you have one autonomous vehicle lane winona vehicle Wayne and if you were to do that how would you handle you know people targeted intercessions and again just to highlight something that that Eric mentioned it’s interesting in this conversation one of the things we’ve seen is that yeah the car design and

Production cycle is a 10 to 20 year long cycle the infrastructure planning and design can be even longer than that 25 30 years and yet at the same time at the very local level some dramatic engineering changes can be applied on a small scale when really what you’re

Talking about is the basic roadbed is already a step so you’re really resurfacing so you have these two contradictory forces that’s a big level it takes years to plan and bed environmentally clear some of these massive changes at the small level we’re dramatically changing the street in the

Urban form to accommodate people bike and vehicles and so that vehicle range may be getting very much wider locally but it may not make that big of a difference because of the work that we’re already doing in that regard okay I want to go ahead and

Joe a final slide here just so you can kind of have some contact information about us okay I’m again having technical difficulties so ok here is the car future the best way to get older is through the website learn about the book project and again to learn about some of

The other exercise multidisciplinary approach the organization’s taking I’ve been very happy to be involved with it aha here aren’t all the contributors to the book and from the agencies and companies that were involved with and you know really look forward to a future interest and and in kind of fostering

Types of conversations so from everyone here thank you very much all right thank you for all the presentations and thank you for staying with us even through all the technical difficulties and that’s it for today and for those of you who are still in attendance I just want to go

Through a few reminders first off to log your CM credits for attending today’s webcast please go to playing that org slash CM select today’s date sep tember 7th and then select today’s webcast car street and policy in 2035 this webcast is available for 1.5 cm credit also we

Are recording today’s session so you will be able to find recording of this webcast along with a six slide per page PDF at Utah ap.org webcast archive this concludes today’s session and I want to thank everyone again for attending thanks alright then well are you still in line

Yeah I am whoo well thank you very much and apologize for the disaster technology it seems like a lot of help they can’t hear me but thank you for sticking on if you stuck with that 301 fnd no thank you guys for just every day

And thank God they later I think so good khlo job but is it possible to get a list of the attendees oh yeah

ID: 6Kse8bIxB-Q
Time: 1347044803
Date: 2012-09-07 23:36:43
Duration: 01:29:07

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